Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Zohran Mamdani win 3 boroughs in the 2025 New York City Mayoral General Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb679e64ef0c72a5fb88b2a9b99190a3db8e7ac87b8f0fa96ae3209cbc56587e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,707
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,876
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,707 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe709…9d39backed Yes | 15c | 5,347$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.43 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 22c | 2,480$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.56 | 196 | 43.4%85 W · 111 L | +15.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 15c | 2,218$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.89 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63b1…1676backed Yes | 20c | 1,536$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 17c | 1,161$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.11 | 165 | 44.2%73 W · 92 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefc3…081fbacked Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2021…a8d5backed Yes | 14c | 780$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked Yes | 4c | 749.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7963…5c7bbacked Yes | 11c | 629$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.19 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1f…81e6backed Yes | 14c | 606$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.84 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a7…438dbacked Yes | 24c | 558.92$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f7…e73bbacked Yes | 11c | 430.32$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.55 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b8…83b9backed Yes | 22c | 414$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce3…f779backed Yes | 13c | 310.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.19 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6e…a10bbacked Yes | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 18c | 283.09$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.29 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecf4…9979backed Yes | 11c | 272.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7c…ef52backed Yes | 10c | 249.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked Yes | 12c | 233.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 74 | 29.7%22 W · 52 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 7c | 230.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…c417backed Yes | 11c | 230$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4145…fc24backed Yes | 12c | 208.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfd…8b51backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 32c | 179$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.59 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2783…8321backed Yes | 14c | 178.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0401…2f0ebacked Yes | 17c | 165$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…631ebacked Yes | 14c | 161.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9228…e41abacked Yes | 27c | 144.14$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -55%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e5…f261backed Yes | 16c | 130$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 13c | 99.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 166 | 32.5%54 W · 112 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…84d2backed Yes | 21c | 78.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked No | 76c | 75.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 77c | 70.33$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…7690backed No | 61c | 69$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 21c | 68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 133 | 17.3%23 W · 110 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x270a…7b78backed Yes | 17c | 61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef9f…216bbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9932…f509backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked No | 71c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Zohran Mamdani win 3 boroughs in the 2025 New York City Mayoral General Election?this page
- Will Zohran Mamdani win 0 boroughs in the 2025 New York City Mayoral General Election?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani win 1 borough in the 2025 New York City Mayoral General Election?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani win 2 boroughs in the 2025 New York City Mayoral General Election?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani win 4 boroughs in the 2025 New York City Mayoral General Election?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani win all 5 boroughs in the 2025 New York City Mayoral General Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.