MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdbba0cd9941eb133e9fb4ebf8c2493cb90c9e1e9fbea076792a1ec900f5f03ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Bravesof San Francisco Giants, Atlanta Braves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,666
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,234
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,666 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Atlanta Braves | 74c | 5,364$3,969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,394.69 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed San Francisco Giants | 26c | 5,317$1,408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,407.82 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed San Francisco Giants | 23c | 1,149$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.92 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Atlanta Braves | 76c | 1,002$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.22 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked San Francisco Giants | 67c | 873.77$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.86 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22c7…3e23backed Atlanta Braves | 21c | 582.14$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.69 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3186…2a53backed Atlanta Braves | 77c | 553.06$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.2 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…6c8fbacked San Francisco Giants | 28c | 527.66$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.59 | 276 | 52.9%146 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Atlanta Braves | 76c | 398.94$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.72 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Atlanta Braves | 53c | 380.95$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.14 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed San Francisco Giants | 19c | 306.27$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Atlanta Braves | 79c | 295$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.9 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc85…aa54backed San Francisco Giants | 26c | 184.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.08 | 242 | 43%104 W · 138 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked San Francisco Giants | 26c | 180.54$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.43 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed San Francisco Giants | 22c | 180.34$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.13 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad3f…a377backed Atlanta Braves | 68c | 80.07$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Atlanta Braves | 77c | 71.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Atlanta Braves | 68c | 67.51$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d2a…7682backed San Francisco Giants | 28c | 50.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Atlanta Braves | 75c | 48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed San Francisco Giants | 38c | 41.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked San Francisco Giants | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…7969backed Atlanta Braves | 47c | 35.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed San Francisco Giants | 32c | 34.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Atlanta Braves | 79c | 30.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Atlanta Braves | 78c | 19.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Atlanta Braves | 78c | 18.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta BravesSan Francisco Giants won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 11.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 12.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.