MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42487e7ef50d574572371f6e487187dc20659d867dfdb0c40348062524fa555e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Bravesof San Francisco Giants, Atlanta Braves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,719
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,577
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,719 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Francisco Giants | 42c | 3,776$1,604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,604.44 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Atlanta Braves | 20c | 2,084$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,665.69 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Francisco Giants | 80c | 1,412$1,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,124.19 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Atlanta Braves | 59c | 999.99$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 338 | 64.2%217 W · 121 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked San Francisco Giants | 44c | 934.87$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.66 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Atlanta Braves | 66c | 934.8$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.16 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Atlanta Braves | 37c | 919.79$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.12 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Atlanta Braves | 30c | 558.19$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.86 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Atlanta Braves | 21c | 524.92$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.5 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaecd…75b3backed Atlanta Braves | 38c | 500$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -6.2wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x22c7…3e23backed Atlanta Braves | 35c | 300$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.7 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked San Francisco Giants | 31c | 238.05$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.25 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked San Francisco Giants | 51c | 219.28$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.1 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Atlanta Braves | 72c | 128.46$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.02 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Atlanta Braves | 20c | 125$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 231 | 40.3%93 W · 138 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…d0a8backed Atlanta Braves | 21c | 111.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.27 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Atlanta Braves | 70c | 105.21$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.56 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Atlanta Braves | 20c | 95.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.48 | 557 | 58%323 W · 234 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…ceafbacked Atlanta Braves | 72c | 88.01$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 226 | 53.1%120 W · 106 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Atlanta Braves | 34c | 82.24$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.62 | 276 | 52.9%146 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Atlanta Braves | 20c | 74.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.86 | 430 | 43%185 W · 245 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed San Francisco Giants | 28c | 71.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed San Francisco Giants | 73c | 69.82$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.79 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe14a…62bebacked Atlanta Braves | 34c | 68$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.06 | 151 | 45.7%69 W · 82 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Atlanta Braves | 34c | 62.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.18 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Atlanta Braves | 67c | 52.24$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Atlanta Braves | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…d515backed Atlanta Braves | 59c | 49.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 111 | 55.9%62 W · 49 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked San Francisco Giants | 28c | 48.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Atlanta Braves | 70c | 47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…5720backed San Francisco Giants | 30c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed San Francisco Giants | 34c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb795…1a30backed Atlanta Braves | 72c | 44.44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed San Francisco Giants | 38c | 41.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Atlanta Braves | 33c | 41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3534…a1b3backed Atlanta Braves | 77c | 40.04$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed San Francisco Giants | 74c | 35.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Atlanta Braves | 45c | 30.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Atlanta Braves | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe8…72bcbacked San Francisco Giants | 41c | 26.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 242 | 52.9%128 W · 114 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…d0f0backed San Francisco Giants | 41c | 26.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Atlanta Braves | 47c | 25.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…4a70backed San Francisco Giants | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 346 | 39.6%137 W · 209 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5f…2184backed Atlanta Braves | 69c | 24.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Atlanta Braves | 69c | 21.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Atlanta Braves | 68c | 19.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 192 | 57.8%111 W · 81 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked San Francisco Giants | 65c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta BravesSan Francisco Giants won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 11.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 12.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.