Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc39d10e7e646c4ccd5096cf3c48b80a40483a16ae4410d84645a3982fd17e05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,476
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,097
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,476 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed No | 3c | 1,450$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.47 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 51c | 493.35$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.48 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 41c | 395.25$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.74 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 55c | 395.21$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.63 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 80c | 280.09$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.81 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7439…b8efbacked Yes | 33c | 263.64$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.89 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 32c | 244.09$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.95 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4343…8deabacked Yes | 41c | 241.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.49 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 46c | 222.51$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a60…be51backed No | 11c | 221.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 19c | 210$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacf9…a129backed Yes | 30c | 199.98$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.98 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 17c | 169$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6b…210ebacked Yes | 30c | 149.86$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 38c | 149.36$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.03 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed Yes | 56c | 146.92$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 29c | 145$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.96 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 32c | 134.7$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.89 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…a64dbacked Yes | 22c | 124.41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.9 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 22c | 124.01$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.33 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 45c | 120$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.8 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 119.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc18…f73cbacked No | 76c | 99.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.99 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 14c | 99.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.99 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 29c | 96.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 71c | 92.16$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.77 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 91.73$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.59 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 14c | 88.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 40c | 88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.23 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…41d4backed No | 64c | 85.33$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.73 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x25f0…7d92backed Yes | 24c | 83.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.83 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 61c | 80.82$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.32 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 25c | 77.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.47 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 69c | 71.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d1…6c34backed Yes | 31c | 68.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.59 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 34cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 78c | 66$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes | 44c | 65.06$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…efdfbacked Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.15 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2549…c8b1backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 73c | 56.5$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 42c | 50.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf97a…dd22backed No | 34c | 45.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 24c | 44.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.77 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 66c | 42.23$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 40c | 42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 25c | 41.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 65c | 40.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b5…8c02backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3964…14f0backed Yes | 70c | 33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 70c | 31.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 48c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 77c | 27.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 70c | 25.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 80c | 24.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 70c | 22.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 131 | 67.2%88 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 13.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 14?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on August 14?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 14?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 14?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 14?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 14?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.