TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,941
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,913

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,941 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc60b…d9f7backed No49c1,476$724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751.3433929.5%100 W · 239 L+12.9wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x81e9…8e07backed Yes30c1,203$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.9920250.5%102 W · 100 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c2b…36f4backed Yes47c885.04$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.897347.9%35 W · 38 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01ce…27a2backed No76c806.15$614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.3755336.7%203 W · 350 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Yes56c725.08$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.0440337.2%150 W · 253 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9be9…7017backed Yes25c536$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.2665627.4%180 W · 476 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76f4…82dabacked Yes37c522.97$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.348438.1%32 W · 52 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid+0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No65c455.96$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.721,31656.2%740 W · 576 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2851…6b8cbacked No55c394.03$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.0268338.8%265 W · 418 L+36.1wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4309…7456backed Yes16c313.19$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.0616126.1%42 W · 119 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick20cpaid-1.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4343…8deabacked No65c308.51$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.517661.8%47 W · 29 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdadb…1870backed No68c269.64$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.0958922.8%134 W · 455 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cc7…2385backed Yes51c269.57$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.075424.1%13 W · 41 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-47.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No37c266$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.782,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa13b…f981backed Yes41c263.99$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.923823.7%9 W · 29 L-5.3wins-0.14per pick38cpaid-36.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No71c237.73$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.484,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes35c236.33$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.864,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes30c232.54$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.9461821.2%131 W · 487 L-34.2wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-48.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6fb1…9319backed Yes37c200.97$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.0749622.2%110 W · 386 L+26.1wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+22.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf56c…ad84backed Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105073.4%17 W · 490 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64a0…f6edbacked Yes28c200$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552245.5%10 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xacf9…a129backed Yes34c199.96$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.992835.7%10 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No63c196$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.524,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf569…3063backed Yes69c190.76$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.981464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+31.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e42…4938backed No64c183.23$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.3738830.2%117 W · 271 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7439…b8efbacked Yes39c173.99$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.8713238.6%51 W · 81 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-13.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No73c167.82$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.142,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc18…f73cbacked Yes39c154.96$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.694427.3%12 W · 32 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No63c150$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.13,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb99b…b581backed Yes33c149.98$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4910439.4%41 W · 63 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf255…a6e8backed No71c134.96$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.078269.5%57 W · 25 L+8.7wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+27.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xad50…3122backed Yes18c119.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.647423.6%112 W · 362 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-10.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes24c106.54$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.934,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c105.51$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.862,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2549…c8b1backed Yes36c104.35$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.578139.5%32 W · 49 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x873f…ca06backed Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9188…e046backed Yes22c99.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2256921.8%124 W · 445 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No63c93.53$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.561,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No59c90$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.96,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes26c83.02$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.853,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes47c80$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.629427.9%82 W · 212 L+18.6wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+42.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7ebe…a64dbacked Yes32c80$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.910325.2%26 W · 77 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a60…be51backed No78c71.1$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.973240.6%13 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+16.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No49c61$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.114,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes45c60$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0510847.2%51 W · 57 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No56c54$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.495,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No64c53.34$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.22,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e0f…9a05backed No70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.820631.1%64 W · 142 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes30c49.94$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.967,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x0e70…bb75backed No67c46.18$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.247444.6%33 W · 41 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+19%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No68c45.97$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.912,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No65c43.68$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.462,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x25f0…7d92backed Yes47c42.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205444.4%24 W · 30 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x66d3…7badbacked Yes37c40.06$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.021741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.13per pick54cpaid-24.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No62c40$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.280560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2326…24e2backed No70c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.21040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41e6…66b7backed Yes51c38.83$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.846857.3%268 W · 200 L-22.3wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb4b5…b552backed Yes41c38.58$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.77366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+29.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No63c37$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.692,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfa0…1d51backed No79c33.41$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.011758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6240…54c0backed No51c33$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.312157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc427…efdfbacked Yes44c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.151560%9 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes43c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7537150.4%187 W · 184 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc780…40a4backed Yes47c29.09$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.72728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No67c28.11$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.242,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf56c…e1b7backed Yes38c27.66$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.453834.2%13 W · 25 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick36cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No53c27.38$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.842,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No62c26$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.840162.6%251 W · 150 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No63c26$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.623,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No51c24.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.151,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No72c22.79$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.492,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c18…32c3backed Yes51c21$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.711,04362.9%656 W · 387 L-11.9wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No65c20.48$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.171,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfaf3…782cbacked No63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.41,87663%1,181 W · 695 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed Yes51c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.229354.3%159 W · 134 L-25.6wins-0.09per pick63cpaid-15.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x29ef…dddabacked No64c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.218247.3%86 W · 96 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-11.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x813f…26ecbacked No64c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.280962.1%502 W · 307 L-22.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2cf…464bbacked No56c19.88$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.751,11563.4%707 W · 408 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeef1…21b8backed No76c15.79$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.7943540.5%176 W · 259 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No74c13.63$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.5779947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.