Tennis · resolved market
BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Holger Rune vs Ugo Humbert
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc97b324d91e8bc8ee6379e339f0a232e1779262de6fa874f15da6b7b85cff38
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Humbertof Rune, Humbert
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $161,644
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $211,631
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $161,644 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7606…2836backed Humbert | 63c | 45,173$28,644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,529.31 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Rune | 36c | 24,084$8,701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,701.4 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d76…9168backed Humbert | 45c | 22,672$10,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,379.57 | 375 | 40.8%153 W · 222 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d61…3a5bbacked Rune | 70c | 7,900$5,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,530 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Rune | 35c | 7,153$2,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,519.82 | 158 | 32.3%51 W · 107 L | -13.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Rune | 34c | 6,794$2,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,329.59 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Rune | 8c | 5,533$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.27 | 245 | 44.9%110 W · 135 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Rune | 36c | 5,000$1,797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,797.48 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Rune | 63c | 4,749$2,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,998.23 | 11,325 | 43.4%4,912 W · 6,413 L | +18.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…d32abacked Rune | 50c | 3,946$1,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,990 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Rune | 59c | 3,652$2,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,162.03 | 8,152 | 45.3%3,695 W · 4,457 L | +155.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3868…5683backed Humbert | 29c | 3,000$883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,117.38 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Rune | 48c | 2,870$1,377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,377.3 | 139 | 35.3%49 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb406…4964backed Rune | 47c | 2,815$1,323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,323.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Rune | 47c | 2,393$1,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,124.53 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Humbert | 50c | 2,212$1,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,114.16 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Rune | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.94 | 1,444 | 48.8%705 W · 739 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Rune | 26c | 1,876$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.18 | 6,685 | 36.9%2,466 W · 4,219 L | -96.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4517backed Rune | 37c | 1,621$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Humbert | 52c | 1,617$841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$776 | 189 | 43.4%82 W · 107 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…3b99backed Humbert | 52c | 1,579$821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.9 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Rune | 50c | 1,424$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Rune | 53c | 1,400$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.38 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Rune | 48c | 1,200$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576 | 364 | 40.9%149 W · 215 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Rune | 48c | 1,034$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.8 | 383 | 48%184 W · 199 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Humbert | 52c | 931$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.23 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Rune | 20c | 881$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.14 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Rune | 26c | 866$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.86 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34cf…7188backed Rune | 50c | 823.9$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…65a7backed Rune | 49c | 775.51$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Humbert | 51c | 743.14$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.14 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06b2…9f35backed Rune | 59c | 594$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.75 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…fb15backed Humbert | 24c | 420$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.2 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +4.2wins | +0.30per pick | 48cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Rune | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3357…42fabacked Rune | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbaa…59b8backed Rune | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 323 | 48.3%156 W · 167 L | -10.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79cc…8026backed Rune | 50c | 353.03$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Humbert | 49c | 304.49$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.49 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Humbert | 28c | 300$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217 | 444 | 23.9%106 W · 338 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…e758backed Humbert | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2d…82f1backed Humbert | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93cb…3485backed Humbert | 51c | 294.52$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.34 | 304 | 39.8%121 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Rune | 51c | 284.31$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 434 | 48.4%210 W · 224 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Rune | 47c | 267.77$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.85 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed Humbert | 50c | 253.11$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.56 | 666 | 49.5%330 W · 336 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60cd…a1b6backed Humbert | 23c | 218.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.16 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe394…289cbacked Rune | 50c | 215.41$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.88 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed Rune | 53c | 210$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.3 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7d…5aeebacked Rune | 48c | 200.86$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.33 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -7.1wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Rune | 50c | 200.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Rune | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 421 | 41.8%176 W · 245 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Rune | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Rune | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Rune | 50c | 193.13$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.97 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…a649backed Rune | 57c | 176.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Humbert | 54c | 170.73$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.73 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked Rune | 25c | 158.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 251 | 52.6%132 W · 119 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed Rune | 52c | 144.23$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Rune | 53c | 132.49$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.77 | 360 | 47.2%170 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Rune | 46c | 129.58$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 2,332 | 46.6%1,087 W · 1,245 L | +55.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98d…745ebacked Humbert | 25c | 115.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.55 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4731…cba8backed Rune | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdf…edf9backed Rune | 78c | 96$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.88 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 70cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a4…333bbacked Humbert | 56c | 93.09$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.02 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Rune | 40c | 70.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 606 | 41.6%252 W · 354 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f83…7252backed Rune | 37c | 65.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -7.3wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea7…7a4abacked Humbert | 51c | 65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0891…a84dbacked Rune | 28c | 54.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Rune | 56c | 52.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed Rune | 46c | 52.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Rune | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Rune | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 499 | 55.1%275 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Rune | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e63…7e29backed Rune | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Humbert | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7641…e092backed Rune | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Rune | 51c | 40.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2db8…e042backed Humbert | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 748 | 61.9%463 W · 285 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Humbert | 46c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3e…0b56backed Rune | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc36a…be63backed Rune | 47c | 24.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3412…3a3cbacked Rune | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +3.6wins | +0.16per pick | 65cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3945…8d8fbacked Humbert | 79c | 17.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.