TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,747
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,800

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,747 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9fe5…4745backed Yes10c4,249$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.8718629.6%55 W · 131 L-15.3wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-22.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes27c290.12$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.7410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked No74c273.43$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.77862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+59.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89b5…5aa7backed Yes48c231.46$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11016242.6%69 W · 93 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes31c220.07$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.519,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d09…143fbacked No40c215.91$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.7128829.5%85 W · 203 L+32.9wins+0.11per pick18cpaid+101.6%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes13c207.92$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.032,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x375b…0ebbbacked Yes43c207.69$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$906046.7%28 W · 32 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes25c155.39$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.031,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No60c133.45$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.972,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes37c131.86$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.367,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x31af…5c86backed Yes27c114.75$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5331836.8%117 W · 201 L+8.2wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No42c112$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.455,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No66c110.28$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.1392678.2%724 W · 202 L+51.2wins+0.06per pick73cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9196…d934backed No34c108.97$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.8764460.6%390 W · 254 L+92.2wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+36.4%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes24c106$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2247738.8%185 W · 292 L+18.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1941…deeabacked Yes36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361,07236.6%392 W · 680 L+25.9wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd661…2750backed Yes51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5188028.9%254 W · 626 L-2.9wins0.00per pick29cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5127129.2%79 W · 192 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes47c97.21$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.4445540%182 W · 273 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a3a…00b2backed Yes42c95$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.514524.1%35 W · 110 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No39c94.05$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.731,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No56c93.76$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.6412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85d2…7479backed No56c93.35$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.8153258.6%312 W · 220 L+45.1wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+23.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8b6f…b9bebacked No37c81.89$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.8922446.4%104 W · 120 L+31.1wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+35.4%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xb699…4e20backed No59c80.3$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.9921352.1%111 W · 102 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89cc…9e01backed No54c79.91$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.669752.6%51 W · 46 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x42b7…abffbacked No49c71.91$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.7330665%199 W · 107 L+14.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No72c71.42$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes44c68.63$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.522,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No64c65.56$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.78,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No54c61.7$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.419,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52dc…33c9backed Yes36c55.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2076936.3%279 W · 490 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe29f…cdd8backed No36c55.39$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.3916641%68 W · 98 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked No45c54.15$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.9948743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes36c53.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.696,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes28c53.62$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.223,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3164…3c65backed No75c52.73$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4144465.3%290 W · 154 L+0.8wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2753…e28abacked No39c51.28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.2842061.2%257 W · 163 L+19.7wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd71…1281backed No37c50.06$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.553951.9%280 W · 259 L+54.4wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes68c50$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.238655.7%215 W · 171 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33e8…dc93backed Yes24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.123941.4%99 W · 140 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9777…3761backed Yes25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.54141.5%17 W · 24 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf145…2318backed Yes68c50$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes29c47.98$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed No71c47.54$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.743848.6%213 W · 225 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes40c47.5$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No69c46.71$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6665965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bf7…ea54backed No50c45.49$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.828441.2%117 W · 167 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes42c42.21$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.535,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No37c40.54$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.541,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes63c40.54$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5470148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50b1…0793backed No58c40.02$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.8143663.5%277 W · 159 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes54c40$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x5a3b…bd3bbacked Yes50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204020%8 W · 32 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-44.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes36c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.252,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb4…4ea8backed No37c39.43$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.867562.7%47 W · 28 L+10.3wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+26.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes30c39.3$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.961,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No32c38.12$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.893,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd353…9ac2backed No56c35.8$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.86264.5%40 W · 22 L+8.5wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+24%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9cef…8fa3backed No58c34.65$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6539346.6%183 W · 210 L+29.9wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No71c32$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.344,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4eab…2caabacked Yes40c30.9$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3644567%298 W · 147 L+17.6wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No67c30.3$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45a9…2b9fbacked Yes35c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-35.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1d1f…e428backed Yes50c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159931.3%31 W · 68 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa98c…a75ebacked Yes40c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124535.6%16 W · 29 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No63c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.14,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x164c…3e39backed Yes42c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.61,03451.3%530 W · 504 L+69.5wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3bbe…41afbacked Yes38c28.7$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.91616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick43cpaid-68.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x657c…0969backed No51c28.39$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.911040%4 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No63c27.21$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.952,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No75c26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.54,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd84…0fe5backed No66c25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.551568%350 W · 165 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No70c23.98$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.245,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17f2…adcabacked No74c23.22$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.0411163.1%70 W · 41 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No49c22$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.222,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb58…c62ebacked No73c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.45558.2%32 W · 23 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No65c18.18$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.413,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec0a…71dabacked Yes69c16.74$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5511343.4%49 W · 64 L-6.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1546…778bbacked No75c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.7535429.9%106 W · 248 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1ba7…3d88backed No70c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.547866.5%318 W · 160 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.