Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: OG vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdcd552d469b8fae49c4ecdebb3ad5e133acf19226e71544fd539a08957df9b6b

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: MOUZof OG, MOUZ
Resolved: Nov 22, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $125,419
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $159,818

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $125,419 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Dota2
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xac0d…b006backed OG	37c	34,437$12,815 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12,814.87	106	61.3%65 W · 41 L	+10.4wins	+0.10per pick	52cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4fe9…706abacked MOUZ	62c	23,127$14,438 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,689.26	158	52.5%83 W · 75 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa925…e1c8backed OG	45c	14,859$6,639 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,638.58	39	53.8%21 W · 18 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb569…5695backed MOUZ	69c	8,393$5,812 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,580.9	190	47.9%91 W · 99 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed OG	32c	7,660$2,475 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,474.86	451	39.2%177 W · 274 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x25ed…6ac6backed MOUZ	54c	7,102$3,815 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,287	78	55.1%43 W · 35 L	+6.7wins	+0.09per pick	47cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb3dd…a7e0backed MOUZ	62c	4,657$2,882 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,774.43	131	55%72 W · 59 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed MOUZ	66c	4,508$2,967 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,540.76	33	39.4%13 W · 20 L	-4.5wins	-0.14per pick	53cpaid	-26.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd9a3…b1dfbacked OG	26c	3,880$1,003 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,003.09	100	48%48 W · 52 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed MOUZ	53c	3,540$1,883 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,656.47	894	40.3%360 W · 534 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed OG	16c	2,750$446 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$446.11	804	43.9%353 W · 451 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-11%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1034…b26dbacked MOUZ	64c	2,361$1,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$861	71	46.5%33 W · 38 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked OG	30c	2,225$674 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$673.74	1,821	45%820 W · 1,001 L	+33.5wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked MOUZ	54c	1,809$977 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$832.24	109	41.3%45 W · 64 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked MOUZ	62c	1,499$930 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$569.75	2,012	44.2%889 W · 1,123 L	+36.6wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3db3…932fbacked OG	35c	1,429$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	161	49.7%80 W · 81 L	-4.7wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bcb…b05abacked OG	9c	1,048$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.95	380	49.2%187 W · 193 L	+13.1wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+168.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed MOUZ	63c	1,000$630 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$370	536	52.6%282 W · 254 L	-3.9wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bae…14adbacked MOUZ	62c	967.37$600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$367.38	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f8e…b232backed OG	45c	900$405 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$405	11	81.8%9 W · 2 L	+2.6wins	+0.23per pick	59cpaid	+43.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked MOUZ	55c	900$495 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$405	341	46.6%159 W · 182 L	+4.8wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdf3…1bb5backed MOUZ	54c	824.27$448 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$375.94	283	41%116 W · 167 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd397…5052backed MOUZ	68c	736.53$501 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$235.69	234	65%152 W · 82 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	65cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x74ef…1ac6backed OG	36c	705.98$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255	476	60.7%289 W · 187 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	61cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked OG	26c	690.8$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$182.76	84	11.9%10 W · 74 L	-14.1wins	-0.17per pick	29cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked OG	35c	600$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	858	51.3%440 W · 418 L	+30.8wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked OG	35c	564.37$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.03	552	51.6%285 W · 267 L	+10.3wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa308…2d12backed MOUZ	70c	541.43$379 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$162.43	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.19per pick	69cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ffc…8967backed OG	33c	530$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.4	220	33.6%74 W · 146 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1448…9b9cbacked MOUZ	62c	520$322 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$197.6	132	62.9%83 W · 49 L	+4.0wins	+0.03per pick	60cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x987b…c14ebacked OG	11c	500$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x091e…3432backed OG	45c	488.76$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219.94	114	52.6%60 W · 54 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cad…eb66backed OG	5c	388.24$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.41	97	50.5%49 W · 48 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xde17…68d2backed MOUZ	65c	369.28$241 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$128.51	179	50.3%90 W · 89 L	+14.7wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x30d1…2ecdbacked OG	7c	357.99$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.66	125	33.6%42 W · 83 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a37…869bbacked MOUZ	57c	350.88$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$150.88	52	61.5%32 W · 20 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	59cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2a0…d7a5backed MOUZ	66c	345.33$228 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117.41	19	52.6%10 W · 9 L	+1.3wins	+0.07per pick	46cpaid	-7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f04…5fc4backed MOUZ	66c	303$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$103.02	315	45.4%143 W · 172 L	-19.2wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0a20…42c4backed OG	16c	300$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	15	40%6 W · 9 L	+1.7wins	+0.12per pick	28cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2214…74ebbacked OG	15c	281.88$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.1	23	34.8%8 W · 15 L	-2.2wins	-0.10per pick	44cpaid	-32%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ff3…c17fbacked OG	36c	277.78$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	+3.6wins	+0.16per pick	29cpaid	+44%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x72d3…cbf2backed MOUZ	70c	269.35$190 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.67	25	72%18 W · 7 L	+3.8wins	+0.15per pick	57cpaid	+24%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xf41c…8e95backed OG	15c	266.67$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	58cpaid	-15%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked OG	32c	259.37$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.98	641	23.4%150 W · 491 L	-18.6wins	-0.03per pick	26cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd138…7058backed OG	40c	250$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	115	51.3%59 W · 56 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe35e…7754backed OG	12c	250$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	49	57.1%28 W · 21 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee6f…3859backed MOUZ	67c	238.81$160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.81	18	72.2%13 W · 5 L	+4.6wins	+0.26per pick	47cpaid	+48.7%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0e5e…67c5backed OG	46c	218.02$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.29	140	39.3%55 W · 85 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb719…dacbbacked OG	22c	215$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.5	43	46.5%20 W · 23 L	+4.1wins	+0.10per pick	37cpaid	+31.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x217f…5d10backed OG	22c	194.87$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.44	91	28.6%26 W · 65 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4d60…be72backed MOUZ	62c	193.55$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.55	199	49.2%98 W · 101 L	+8.7wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked OG	41c	179.8$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.72	81	46.9%38 W · 43 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a9a…28cebacked OG	25c	177.7$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	61	49.2%30 W · 31 L	-3.1wins	-0.05per pick	54cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdca4…1c68backed OG	34c	176.47$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	641	49.9%320 W · 321 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed MOUZ	59c	169.9$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.9	81	60.5%49 W · 32 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	61cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6bd5…81b0backed OG	37c	169.81$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.47	76	30.3%23 W · 53 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x758f…dfb7backed MOUZ	62c	161.29$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.29	346	67.9%235 W · 111 L	+9.0wins	+0.03per pick	65cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x158f…09f1backed MOUZ	62c	161.29$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.29	49	42.9%21 W · 28 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04e5…b8ffbacked MOUZ	68c	150.43$103 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.83	22	50%11 W · 11 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x197b…7477backed OG	37c	135.14$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	66	33.3%22 W · 44 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb38c…74bdbacked OG	47c	106.38$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	+1.7wins	+0.10per pick	43cpaid	+18.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9941…158fbacked OG	29c	100$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	51	33.3%17 W · 34 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x824d…1271backed OG	19c	100$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.6	240	26.7%64 W · 176 L	-30.5wins	-0.13per pick	39cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	37-0.11 edge/pick
0x86e0…c394backed OG	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	807	42.6%344 W · 463 L	-4.3wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked MOUZ	69c	86.95$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.95	166	65.7%109 W · 57 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	65cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed OG	37c	81.28$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	204	57.8%118 W · 86 L	+6.4wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c64…c336backed OG	33c	74.74$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	98	52%51 W · 47 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-15%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fd8…a5bebacked OG	37c	73.78$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	203	39.9%81 W · 122 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3703…2795backed OG	36c	69.44$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	153	41.2%63 W · 90 L	-7.6wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x86d5…4a04backed OG	30c	67.48$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-2.3wins	-0.26per pick	59cpaid	-56.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb861…27ffbacked OG	46c	65.22$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	82	47.6%39 W · 43 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea3a…8297backed MOUZ	65c	63.44$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.44	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.7wins	+0.25per pick	47cpaid	+70.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd1c1…928cbacked MOUZ	54c	55.56$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.56	34	61.8%21 W · 13 L	+2.2wins	+0.06per pick	55cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7eb3…0710backed MOUZ	66c	53.93$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.29	111	63.1%70 W · 41 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	63cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd47f…41f9backed OG	37c	53.87$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	50	50%25 W · 25 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fbe…7d07backed OG	37c	50$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.5	254	44.5%113 W · 141 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x476b…8a58backed MOUZ	61c	50$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.5	71	57.7%41 W · 30 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	61cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xac93…0cfcbacked MOUZ	55c	49.99$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.5	581	52.5%305 W · 276 L	-10.5wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf43f…54a6backed OG	46c	43.48$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	-2.3wins	-0.13per pick	43cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x047a…941ebacked OG	45c	40$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	236	40.7%96 W · 140 L	-10.6wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x24b5…e607backed MOUZ	71c	34.1$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	27	37%10 W · 17 L	-4.3wins	-0.16per pick	53cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x49b6…6fd5backed MOUZ	59c	33.9$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.9	22	50%11 W · 11 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2a1…52e5backed OG	36c	33.66$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	23	34.8%8 W · 15 L	-2.8wins	-0.12per pick	47cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x98d0…01a4backed OG	45c	33.24$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	110	54.5%60 W · 50 L	-5.6wins	-0.05per pick	60cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x646a…7eb2backed MOUZ	65c	25.94$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.02	12	50%6 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-25%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f87…4d9dbacked MOUZ	68c	15.63$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5	15	66.7%10 W · 5 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	63cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Dota 2: OG vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winnerthis page
Dota 2: OG vs MOUZ (BO3)MOUZ won
Dota 2: OG vs MOUZ - Game 2 WinnerMOUZ won
Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Dota 2: OG vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event