MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd732307579d9de14c47f788fb75038856aa89a6626bd4d0f181d8e0fd4a71de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,002
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,976
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,002 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 47c | 19,259$9,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,045.45 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 51c | 13,425$6,865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,560.02 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 53c | 7,934$4,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,728.98 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 53c | 3,382$1,790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,592.78 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 47c | 3,030$1,424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,424.12 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 53c | 2,528$1,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,336.71 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 53c | 1,527$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808.32 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 53c | 1,088$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.36 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 47c | 596$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.12 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 53c | 583.71$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.88 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe22a…cb75backed Under | 54c | 560$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.6 | 269 | 48.7%131 W · 138 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Over | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -11.1wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe53f…62d7backed Under | 53c | 466.3$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.3 | 211 | 46.4%98 W · 113 L | +13.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 61c | 347$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.55 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab72…eae9backed Under | 64c | 311.15$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.15 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 53c | 290$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.7 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 47c | 264.98$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.54 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Over | 53c | 219.77$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.48 | 231 | 40.3%93 W · 138 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb9…40d7backed Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 54c | 190$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.4 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 54c | 185$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.1 | 1,137 | 46.3%526 W · 611 L | +36.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Under | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 55c | 156.28$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.47 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…511fbacked Over | 48c | 156.25$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 243 | 50.6%123 W · 120 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 53c | 147.56$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.2 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 45c | 123.44$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.28 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 52c | 119.69$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.45 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Under | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 812 | 57.3%465 W · 347 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Over | 37c | 104$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Under | 51c | 101.56$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.92 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7be0…ca40backed Under | 54c | 94.33$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.39 | 87 | 75.9%66 W · 21 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 46c | 89.94$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.33 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 48c | 85.69$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.13 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 43c | 78.91$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.03 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 65c | 75.1$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.29 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Under | 54c | 70.42$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.74 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 47c | 65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Under | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d69…ab3abacked Under | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 144 | 50.7%73 W · 71 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 53c | 48.2$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 52c | 45.27$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 46c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…82dfbacked Under | 54c | 44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…922dbacked Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 41c | 37.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed Over | 45c | 30.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Over | 53c | 30.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 557 | 58%323 W · 234 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…4a70backed Over | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 346 | 39.6%137 W · 209 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 50c | 27.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf88b…0ed2backed Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Under | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 244 | 48.8%119 W · 125 L | -14.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White SoxBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-5.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.