South American Leagues · resolved market
Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde83f9050361d98d97a55d972d2733db79dd994d5de75b79954cbd5b108b50e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,668
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,733
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,668 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Yes | 16c | 1,277$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.5 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes | 41c | 875.98$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.92 | 519 | 45.7%237 W · 282 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 54c | 638.7$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.95 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 68c | 622.33$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.12 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Yes | 44c | 453.72$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.05 | 350 | 46.3%162 W · 188 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x189c…c9aebacked No | 51c | 429.01$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.21 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 44c | 374.36$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.3 | 506 | 43.9%222 W · 284 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 49c | 346.2$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.07 | 668 | 37.1%248 W · 420 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb399…9435backed No | 56c | 297.92$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.84 | 137 | 48.9%67 W · 70 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8af5…4bbabacked Yes | 43c | 229.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.9 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 49c | 188.67$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.01 | 1,439 | 37.5%540 W · 899 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed No | 66c | 139.99$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.46 | 149 | 43%64 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 55c | 133.9$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.23 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed No | 52c | 111.29$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.42 | 310 | 39.7%123 W · 187 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 56c | 111.1$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.88 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…d93abacked No | 79c | 107.5$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 50c | 97.06$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.31 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…0ba2backed No | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed No | 53c | 78.43$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.86 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked No | 60c | 76.31$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Yes | 50c | 75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 259 | 55.2%143 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Yes | 43c | 74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 485 | 47.6%231 W · 254 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 62c | 68.2$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Yes | 43c | 67.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 404 | 51.2%207 W · 197 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…e9edbacked Yes | 46c | 63.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed No | 51c | 54.68$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 232 | 53%123 W · 109 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed Yes | 21c | 52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 51c | 49.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 416 | 54.3%226 W · 190 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 35c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fde…095bbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a34…a28bbacked No | 59c | 36.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8613…2f76backed Yes | 48c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…e85dbacked Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 76c | 26.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Yes | 39c | 26.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 517 | 50.7%262 W · 255 L | +28.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb305…a400backed Yes | 50c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -6.8wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 50c | 23.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: CS Cienciano O/U 0.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: O/U 0.5Over won
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: O/U 1.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: O/U 2.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: O/U 3.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: O/U 4.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Botafogo FR (-1.5)CS Cienciano won
- Spread: Botafogo FR (-2.5)CS Cienciano won
- Spread: CS Cienciano (-1.5)Botafogo FR won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.