South American Leagues · resolved market
Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x887466ed44ffa17ee368a5de22e8264da4a96f008ef5e7745e34618c7e5ef33c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $150,514
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $147,915
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $150,514 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 30c | 26,079$7,726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,725.98 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec5…fd53backed Under | 20c | 8,381$1,709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,671.7 | 200 | 36.5%73 W · 127 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5b…3ddcbacked Under | 15c | 7,895$1,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,746.36 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e97…8ffabacked Under | 10c | 6,310$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,706.4 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8806…2e83backed Under | 76c | 5,383$4,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,290.74 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd202…1ef5backed Under | 9c | 5,138$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,678.07 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Over | 73c | 4,744$3,478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,478.17 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe337…4ad6backed Under | 80c | 4,694$3,741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$953.25 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 31c | 3,362$1,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,325.69 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 28c | 2,853$806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,046.24 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x482a…c85dbacked Under | 9c | 2,830$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,579.57 | 89 | 28.1%25 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3d…5fcfbacked Under | 9c | 2,403$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,185.8 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 10c | 2,379$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,129.6 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2b…3e5cbacked Under | 13c | 2,249$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,948.63 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 73c | 2,148$1,559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,558.53 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122b…ac59backed Under | 26c | 1,901$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,408.48 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +112%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf16e…43afbacked Under | 1c | 1,549$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,533.33 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +287.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…014abacked Over | 8c | 1,512$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.12 | 116 | 40.5%47 W · 69 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…8445backed Under | 7c | 1,506$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,395.96 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b79…b1bebacked Over | 69c | 1,503$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.99 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Over | 78c | 1,500$1,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,167.45 | 194 | 47.9%93 W · 101 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0f…0e48backed Under | 11c | 1,271$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,132.01 | 124 | 34.7%43 W · 81 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…a8e0backed Under | 42c | 859.69$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.47 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 66c | 840.97$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.9 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…d93abacked Over | 7c | 792.3$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.52 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 22c | 552.05$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.45 | 404 | 51.2%207 W · 197 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf374…0178backed Under | 8c | 463.46$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.38 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 28cpaid | +246.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 7c | 441.66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.69 | 457 | 46.8%214 W · 243 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Over | 76c | 435.64$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.18 | 149 | 43%64 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 33c | 404.71$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.12 | 485 | 47.6%231 W · 254 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 53c | 362.45$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x274b…d408backed Over | 46c | 326.09$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d4…3593backed Under | 68c | 307.89$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.62 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…5b51backed Under | 47c | 305.32$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.82 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked Under | 9c | 290$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.5 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4eb…999abacked Over | 69c | 190.69$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x189c…c9aebacked Under | 25c | 150$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bf…b8e1backed Under | 13c | 148$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.76 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf423…31c4backed Under | 39c | 145$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.79 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 80c | 127.26$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x677e…4a1fbacked Over | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 113 | 28.3%32 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Over | 53c | 123.81$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.32 | 350 | 46.3%162 W · 188 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4348…f08abacked Over | 23c | 119.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 111 | 43.2%48 W · 63 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 15c | 114.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 517 | 50.7%262 W · 255 L | +28.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9900…5cc9backed Under | 17c | 100.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.11 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd74…bedabacked Over | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 129 | 33.3%43 W · 86 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Over | 22c | 97.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1c…3347backed Over | 29c | 87.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 215 | 38.1%82 W · 133 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 44c | 87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.86 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 45c | 86.2$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.63 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaea…5795backed Over | 30c | 84.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -6.8wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 23c | 80.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.27 | 311 | 36.7%114 W · 197 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 28c | 74.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.51 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 32c | 66.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.21 | 601 | 56.2%338 W · 263 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 76c | 64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 32c | 64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.59 | 412 | 62.1%256 W · 156 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8210…1942backed Under | 56c | 62.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 54c | 61.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 506 | 43.9%222 W · 284 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27d9…f009backed Over | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae3b…e06ebacked Under | 43c | 58.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Over | 67c | 56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.78 | 720 | 58.8%423 W · 297 L | +29.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…965abacked Over | 19c | 52.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 90 | 26.7%24 W · 66 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 32c | 48.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 164 | 49.4%81 W · 83 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Under | 38c | 48.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x999b…abf6backed Over | 80c | 42.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Over | 33c | 30.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 193 | 49.2%95 W · 98 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x156e…cf6fbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: O/U 1.5this page
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: CS Cienciano O/U 0.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: O/U 0.5Over won
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: O/U 2.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: O/U 3.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: O/U 4.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Botafogo FR (-1.5)CS Cienciano won
- Spread: Botafogo FR (-2.5)CS Cienciano won
- Spread: CS Cienciano (-1.5)Botafogo FR won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.