South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: Botafogo FR (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe11b678e9552174ae4910601813cbee431adc6a59632028cf085383355b913a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- CS Ciencianoof Botafogo FR, CS Cienciano
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,168
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,558
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,168 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed CS Cienciano | 45c | 1,996$895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100.73 | 2,376 | 34.7%824 W · 1,552 L | -27.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Botafogo FR | 14c | 1,581$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.8 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Botafogo FR | 66c | 1,075$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.6 | 1,323 | 42.8%566 W · 757 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…92d3backed Botafogo FR | 69c | 1,060$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.23 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -5.2wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked CS Cienciano | 31c | 894.6$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.1 | 3,449 | 51.4%1,773 W · 1,676 L | +22.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Botafogo FR | 49c | 772.01$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.02 | 8,175 | 48.7%3,980 W · 4,195 L | +27.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb77…ef9ebacked Botafogo FR | 68c | 735.29$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Botafogo FR | 71c | 700.94$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.67 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed CS Cienciano | 32c | 513.55$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.78 | 3,817 | 38.4%1,467 W · 2,350 L | -30.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Botafogo FR | 71c | 500.2$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.9 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed CS Cienciano | 33c | 253.23$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.01 | 2,608 | 39.3%1,024 W · 1,584 L | -29.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed CS Cienciano | 29c | 172.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.7 | 1,325 | 50%663 W · 662 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Botafogo FR | 44c | 159.09$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 783 | 51%399 W · 384 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed CS Cienciano | 29c | 156.77$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.91 | 167 | 49.7%83 W · 84 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed CS Cienciano | 28c | 111.78$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.01 | 343 | 41.1%141 W · 202 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked CS Cienciano | 29c | 98.59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 1,511 | 46.1%697 W · 814 L | -15.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…c7a2backed Botafogo FR | 71c | 98.59$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x910a…1aa7backed CS Cienciano | 29c | 98.59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed CS Cienciano | 32c | 84.83$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.04 | 256 | 53.1%136 W · 120 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x153a…af29backed Botafogo FR | 59c | 84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +4.7wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Botafogo FR | 66c | 72.18$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.64 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x204c…1e26backed Botafogo FR | 71c | 69.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Botafogo FR | 34c | 69.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 223 | 49.3%110 W · 113 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…da58backed CS Cienciano | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd6…cfdebacked Botafogo FR | 51c | 48.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x884b…c480backed Botafogo FR | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…4f65backed CS Cienciano | 32c | 42.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a34…a28bbacked Botafogo FR | 69c | 41.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Botafogo FR | 61c | 40.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 176 | 42%74 W · 102 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Botafogo FR | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 742 | 58.5%434 W · 308 L | +29.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b04…403fbacked Botafogo FR | 71c | 39.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked CS Cienciano | 76c | 38.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 1,055 | 49.3%520 W · 535 L | +14.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Botafogo FR | 66c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 326 | 40.2%131 W · 195 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed Botafogo FR | 69c | 21.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Botafogo FR | 71c | 20.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 2,346 | 51.4%1,207 W · 1,139 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…5720backed Botafogo FR | 74c | 20.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13c0…a298backed Botafogo FR | 71c | 18.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Botafogo FR (-1.5)this page
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: CS Cienciano O/U 0.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: O/U 0.5Over won
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: O/U 1.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: O/U 2.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: O/U 3.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: O/U 4.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Botafogo FR (-2.5)CS Cienciano won
- Spread: CS Cienciano (-1.5)Botafogo FR won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.