South American Leagues · resolved market
Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb6d9020cb11fe91cd604ae27aceb697f7c30fc7925a71b0fb045b51cf3216e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,660
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,520
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,660 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x122b…ac59backed Under | 31c | 7,446$2,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,120.77 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +112%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0f…0e48backed Over | 2c | 7,269$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.26 | 124 | 34.7%43 W · 81 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 33c | 7,249$2,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,416.5 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 27c | 3,175$854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,320.67 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Over | 32c | 3,022$982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981.83 | 194 | 47.9%93 W · 101 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1c…3347backed Over | 11c | 2,816$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.78 | 215 | 38.1%82 W · 133 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd202…1ef5backed Under | 28c | 2,733$758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,974.61 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e7…50d1backed Under | 30c | 2,241$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,558.03 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec5…fd53backed Over | 70c | 1,989$1,383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,382.68 | 200 | 36.5%73 W · 127 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 52c | 1,416$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.26 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67bf…f983backed Under | 42c | 1,412$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$811.95 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 65c | 891.07$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.23 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 70c | 793.64$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.55 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 41c | 725.09$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.52 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47d9…54b7backed Under | 28c | 659.38$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.97 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61d4…3593backed Under | 46c | 643.04$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.04 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 468.64$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.68 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Over | 70c | 425.94$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.51 | 219 | 38.8%85 W · 134 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf5…2307backed Over | 74c | 394.03$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.68 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…a935backed Under | 77c | 387.4$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.18 | 103 | 64.1%66 W · 37 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91c7…808fbacked Over | 72c | 343.89$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.6 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaea…5795backed Over | 62c | 335.55$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.52 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -6.8wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4e85…3b3bbacked Over | 72c | 334.19$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.62 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefd6…ca34backed Over | 72c | 272.18$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.19 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Over | 73c | 269$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.37 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 73c | 259$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.99 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7acc…c5b9backed Under | 21c | 232.77$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.01 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd74…bedabacked Over | 64c | 200$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 129 | 33.3%43 W · 86 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked Under | 46c | 199$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.38 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf16e…43afbacked Over | 54c | 188.42$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.75 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +287.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 26c | 169.03$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.81 | 321 | 39.6%127 W · 194 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76bc…fccabacked Over | 60c | 161.3$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.78 | 127 | 38.6%49 W · 78 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 28c | 155.66$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.76 | 311 | 36.7%114 W · 197 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 70c | 150.82$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.01 | 145 | 40%58 W · 87 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x451e…11c5backed Over | 80c | 150$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9900…5cc9backed Under | 31c | 127.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.26 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 36c | 127.11$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.97 | 119 | 44.5%53 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 35c | 126.22$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.72 | 485 | 47.6%231 W · 254 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Under | 40c | 110.08$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.55 | 149 | 43%64 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 45c | 101.66$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.42 | 517 | 50.7%262 W · 255 L | +28.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Over | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 190 | 53.2%101 W · 89 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 46c | 91.78$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.11 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 70c | 90$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.78 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 76c | 88.12$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.65 | 668 | 37.1%248 W · 420 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 37c | 87.46$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.04 | 164 | 49.4%81 W · 83 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf9…d602backed Over | 75c | 87$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.21 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 74c | 83.62$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.88 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 60c | 83.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.27 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked Over | 67c | 77.44$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.68 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 71c | 76$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 48c | 74$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 506 | 43.9%222 W · 284 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 35c | 67.93$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.25 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Over | 67c | 61.09$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2a…a65abacked Over | 60c | 56.93$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 36c | 55.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 457 | 46.8%214 W · 243 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 57c | 51.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 519 | 45.7%237 W · 282 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Over | 48c | 47.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 350 | 46.3%162 W · 188 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a34…a28bbacked Over | 64c | 47.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Under | 25c | 47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.37 | 193 | 49.2%95 W · 98 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Over | 74c | 41.26$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x884b…c480backed Over | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 66cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb3…f890backed Over | 66c | 36.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 76c | 34.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.47 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Under | 43c | 32.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 150 | 57.3%86 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb305…a400backed Over | 69c | 30.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -6.8wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 53c | 26.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 91 | 49.5%45 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Over | 58c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 720 | 58.8%423 W · 297 L | +29.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbace…34d6backed Over | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -3.4wins | -0.38per pick | 71cpaid | -54%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b79…b1bebacked Over | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 63c | 18.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 630 | 61.3%386 W · 244 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Over | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 293 | 62.5%183 W · 110 L | +13.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: O/U 2.5this page
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: CS Cienciano O/U 0.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: O/U 0.5Over won
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: O/U 1.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: O/U 3.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: O/U 4.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Botafogo FR (-1.5)CS Cienciano won
- Spread: Botafogo FR (-2.5)CS Cienciano won
- Spread: CS Cienciano (-1.5)Botafogo FR won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.