South American Leagues · resolved market
Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45caf4aa5a2ec4814802be073cc4f99c55c24a97edf7743cb6caff2cb15422db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,114
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,719
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,114 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb85…152fbacked Under | 47c | 20,000$9,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,599.95 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 53c | 13,776$7,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,301.34 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 56c | 2,459$1,377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,377.15 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…92d3backed Over | 54c | 2,026$1,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,094.09 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -5.5wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -52%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 3c | 1,789$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.81 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 53c | 1,632$865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$865.21 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x189c…c9aebacked Under | 62c | 1,610$998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.8 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed Over | 50c | 1,506$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -7.8wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 7c | 1,174$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.2 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed Over | 53c | 1,132$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd239…2083backed Under | 47c | 1,069$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.59 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e78…067ebacked Under | 52c | 810.9$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.26 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 44c | 790.17$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.56 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1c…3347backed Over | 38c | 777.22$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.34 | 215 | 38.1%82 W · 133 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…1444backed Under | 46c | 750.11$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Over | 53c | 600.98$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.52 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a47…3b21backed Over | 55c | 469$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.95 | 127 | 54.3%69 W · 58 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61d4…3593backed Under | 50c | 440.83$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.03 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 44c | 426.51$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.65 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 51c | 274.04$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.98 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Over | 53c | 266.6$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.3 | 164 | 49.4%81 W · 83 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 44c | 237$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.72 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Over | 46c | 217.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 219 | 38.8%85 W · 134 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked Over | 55c | 200$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.5 | 190 | 53.2%101 W · 89 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 53c | 173$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.69 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 53c | 171$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.63 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 53c | 156.09$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.73 | 452 | 53.1%240 W · 212 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc1…eebebacked Over | 46c | 135.91$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.8 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Under | 73c | 125.36$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 149 | 43%64 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a34…a28bbacked Under | 51c | 119.98$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.18 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 31c | 115.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.81 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee7…f36ebacked Under | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 78c | 104.45$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 675 | 48%324 W · 351 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb3…f890backed Under | 50c | 95.47$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.78 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 47c | 95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.71 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Over | 51c | 85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Over | 53c | 83.9$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.61 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 49c | 80$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 424 | 62.3%264 W · 160 L | +24.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 46c | 66.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 145 | 40%58 W · 87 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 50c | 65.37$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 52c | 64.41$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 517 | 50.7%262 W · 255 L | +28.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 53c | 62.94$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.79 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 50c | 59.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 246 | 65.9%162 W · 84 L | +26.2wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 69c | 58.63$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 34c | 57.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x69d2…a218backed Under | 45c | 55.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 50c | 50.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 157 | 68.2%107 W · 50 L | +21.8wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Over | 53c | 48.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b04…403fbacked Over | 53c | 48.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 54c | 46.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 232 | 53%123 W · 109 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3172…7520backed Under | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +40%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 53c | 43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 278 | 55.4%154 W · 124 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 49c | 40.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 206 | 65%134 W · 72 L | +24.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa807…cc2ebacked Over | 53c | 40.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -28.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 49c | 39.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 217 | 65.4%142 W · 75 L | +24.1wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Under | 61c | 37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 506 | 43.9%222 W · 284 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Under | 61c | 37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 350 | 46.3%162 W · 188 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb490…b1b5backed Over | 53c | 36.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…2540backed Under | 44c | 36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 57c | 34.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 293 | 62.5%183 W · 110 L | +13.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 55c | 34.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 1,439 | 37.5%540 W · 899 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe90f…a908backed Over | 53c | 34.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 56c | 34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 668 | 37.1%248 W · 420 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 50c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 519 | 45.7%237 W · 282 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Under | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 150 | 57.3%86 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7809…6600backed Over | 44c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 60c | 26.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 47c | 25.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 91 | 49.5%45 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Under | 60c | 20.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 485 | 47.6%231 W · 254 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6daa…954abacked Over | 53c | 19.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: O/U 3.5this page
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: CS Cienciano O/U 0.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: O/U 0.5Over won
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: O/U 1.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: O/U 2.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: O/U 4.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Botafogo FR (-1.5)CS Cienciano won
- Spread: Botafogo FR (-2.5)CS Cienciano won
- Spread: CS Cienciano (-1.5)Botafogo FR won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.