South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: Botafogo FR (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb76a05a044de3a110a721f43b67f311a5f02f7d6934e4ffce59d609743b81429
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- CS Ciencianoof Botafogo FR, CS Cienciano
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,190
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,188
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,190 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0e9…67ffbacked Botafogo FR | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed CS Cienciano | 50c | 4,314$2,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,152.66 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed CS Cienciano | 75c | 3,320$2,504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.08 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9c…b67dbacked CS Cienciano | 53c | 1,851$981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870.13 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x162c…6c47backed Botafogo FR | 50c | 1,364$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.56 | 87 | 63.2%55 W · 32 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +21%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Botafogo FR | 47c | 1,272$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.72 | 289 | 40.1%116 W · 173 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed CS Cienciano | 54c | 1,197$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.97 | 668 | 37.1%248 W · 420 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Botafogo FR | 47c | 1,069$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.75 | 1,439 | 37.5%540 W · 899 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Botafogo FR | 35c | 1,006$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.37 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…1691backed Botafogo FR | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed CS Cienciano | 52c | 995.85$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.53 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Botafogo FR | 52c | 732.41$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.76 | 311 | 36.7%114 W · 197 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Botafogo FR | 46c | 711.05$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.08 | 310 | 39.7%123 W · 187 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Botafogo FR | 47c | 708.9$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.18 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed CS Cienciano | 50c | 492.05$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.48 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -7.8wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x734e…edbdbacked Botafogo FR | 48c | 418.04$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked CS Cienciano | 56c | 360.96$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.48 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Botafogo FR | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 402 | 42%169 W · 233 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba1d…d326backed Botafogo FR | 43c | 275.56$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.49 | 126 | 46%58 W · 68 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed CS Cienciano | 52c | 193.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.57 | 149 | 43%64 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc96…2791backed CS Cienciano | 54c | 185.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.51 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed CS Cienciano | 54c | 177.98$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.87 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204c…1e26backed Botafogo FR | 51c | 176.47$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed CS Cienciano | 51c | 162.55$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.15 | 232 | 53%123 W · 109 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd74…bedabacked CS Cienciano | 62c | 154.89$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.86 | 129 | 33.3%43 W · 86 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked CS Cienciano | 49c | 133$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.17 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed CS Cienciano | 47c | 120.98$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.73 | 452 | 53.1%240 W · 212 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebf3…50a8backed Botafogo FR | 56c | 109.89$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.52 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a41…f527backed Botafogo FR | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…bf6cbacked Botafogo FR | 51c | 102.73$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.39 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…7017backed Botafogo FR | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf15…a1febacked Botafogo FR | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 98 | 60.2%59 W · 39 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b94…09dcbacked Botafogo FR | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed CS Cienciano | 52c | 102$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.52 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +8.5wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed CS Cienciano | 41c | 100.18$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.18 | 274 | 42%115 W · 159 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd577…c012backed Botafogo FR | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Botafogo FR | 59c | 92.63$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.65 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…5720backed Botafogo FR | 57c | 92$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.3 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22c5…898ebacked Botafogo FR | 48c | 92$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked CS Cienciano | 72c | 83$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 720 | 58.8%423 W · 297 L | +29.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed CS Cienciano | 77c | 80.6$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed CS Cienciano | 77c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 412 | 62.1%256 W · 156 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed CS Cienciano | 79c | 67.45$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 601 | 56.2%338 W · 263 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Botafogo FR | 50c | 64.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Botafogo FR | 30c | 59.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed CS Cienciano | 52c | 58.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x443b…e8bbbacked CS Cienciano | 51c | 58.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.61 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb199…814ebacked Botafogo FR | 44c | 58.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4a…4b20backed Botafogo FR | 50c | 53.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6109…0baabacked Botafogo FR | 43c | 51.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed6c…4eb1backed CS Cienciano | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +5.2wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +86.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x69d2…a218backed CS Cienciano | 54c | 46.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fd…9994backed Botafogo FR | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10af…2d06backed Botafogo FR | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed CS Cienciano | 51c | 43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51ff…cf90backed Botafogo FR | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd924…7bc2backed Botafogo FR | 42c | 40.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed CS Cienciano | 48c | 39.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed CS Cienciano | 51c | 38.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 62cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x947d…dff0backed Botafogo FR | 51c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x232f…8002backed Botafogo FR | 51c | 38.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…93b0backed Botafogo FR | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf3…2286backed CS Cienciano | 56c | 32.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed CS Cienciano | 77c | 31.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 630 | 61.3%386 W · 244 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed CS Cienciano | 58c | 31.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed CS Cienciano | 67c | 28.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 219 | 38.8%85 W · 134 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1573…a727backed Botafogo FR | 52c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eeb…a72cbacked Botafogo FR | 53c | 26.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Botafogo FR | 46c | 23.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Botafogo FR | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed CS Cienciano | 54c | 23.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 127 | 55.9%71 W · 56 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Botafogo FR (-2.5)this page
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: CS Cienciano O/U 0.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: O/U 0.5Over won
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: O/U 1.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: O/U 2.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: O/U 3.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: O/U 4.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Botafogo FR (-1.5)CS Cienciano won
- Spread: CS Cienciano (-1.5)Botafogo FR won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.