TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: 1win vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
PlayTimeof 1win, PlayTime
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$41,745
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$50,987

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,745 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfdc0…4b85backed 1win41c5,523$2,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,258.011,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed PlayTime58c5,328$3,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,228.351,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9eca…5a59backed 1win39c2,923$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,140.0340051.5%206 W · 194 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf27…026fbacked PlayTime61c2,500$1,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97565863.1%415 W · 243 L+17.5wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked PlayTime60c2,178$1,314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$863.5755251.6%285 W · 267 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dfd…8d75backed PlayTime57c2,013$1,144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$868.7524251.7%125 W · 117 L+21.0wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+15.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed 1win34c1,870$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.1888539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked 1win40c1,606$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649.9225549%125 W · 130 L+9.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4cd…a898backed 1win44c1,500$656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6562055%11 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x449c…eaf5backed 1win42c1,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4205848.3%28 W · 30 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed 1win40c967.96$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.911,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c75…de96backed PlayTime66c824.74$541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.7322461.2%137 W · 87 L+9.4wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xccf5…42f2backed 1win12c791.96$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9757455.4%318 W · 256 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed 1win42c767.2$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.2210546.7%49 W · 56 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea4d…c654backed 1win43c749.98$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.99666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked 1win40c705.98$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.7843049.1%211 W · 219 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed 1win20c645$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.086346%29 W · 34 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb37…7d86backed PlayTime58c599.37$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.11266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+23.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked 1win14c543.53$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.751,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked PlayTime80c412$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.4786659.6%516 W · 350 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae4c…dcb9backed PlayTime67c400$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13228549.1%140 W · 145 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x12bc…bf2fbacked 1win39c400$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15617853.4%95 W · 83 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2978…4a1cbacked PlayTime61c400$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1566873.5%50 W · 18 L+7.3wins+0.11per pick63cpaid+20.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked PlayTime79c390.47$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.151,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked PlayTime61c379.24$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.342,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fea…78b1backed 1win5c377.16$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.341747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2bb8…b136backed 1win5c369.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed PlayTime62c360$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.2760251.2%308 W · 294 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cab…a8cfbacked PlayTime76c317.22$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.4135370%247 W · 106 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0ca…ee0cbacked PlayTime61c311.48$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.48742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-27.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d22…4b50backed PlayTime60c310$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1242045%9 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-20.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x95c8…3469backed 1win13c300$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3921551.6%111 W · 104 L+10.9wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x06ad…4a6bbacked PlayTime71c281.99$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.991070%7 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+53.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked PlayTime65c258.52$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.671,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbef…f45fbacked PlayTime59c228.8$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.432281.8%18 W · 4 L+5.1wins+0.23per pick59cpaid+58.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1a9c…535ebacked 1win40c228$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.112540%10 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d0a…07c7backed PlayTime61c224.74$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.659063.3%57 W · 33 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8342…6dc8backed PlayTime61c209.84$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.8448054%259 W · 221 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xde4b…3b7dbacked 1win20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4018952.9%100 W · 89 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed PlayTime61c200$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7865441.9%274 W · 380 L-1.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd679…9ccfbacked PlayTime57c200$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8614058.6%82 W · 58 L+11.7wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+9.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1863…6174backed PlayTime60c180$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7230460.2%183 W · 121 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7d3…698bbacked PlayTime61c163.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.9348053.1%255 W · 225 L+25.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x009b…26dabacked 1win35c157.14$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5521144.1%93 W · 118 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x48ba…d81dbacked 1win20c156.11$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6356343.9%247 W · 316 L-1.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56d6…4404backed 1win43c150$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.122763%17 W · 10 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+15.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7cbc…b637backed 1win10c150$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1511846.6%55 W · 63 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86bc…efbcbacked PlayTime67c149.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.2523555.7%131 W · 104 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed 1win26c131.17$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.341,03416.3%169 W · 865 L-158.1wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed 1win24c120.54$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.421,26049.7%626 W · 634 L+21.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38c5…0f5cbacked 1win39c109.99$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.958250.5%294 W · 288 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c39…442dbacked 1win18c102.74$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5724518.8%46 W · 199 L-31.2wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-46%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x59e2…1c55backed PlayTime62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3847548%228 W · 247 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed PlayTime58c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4994…3e36backed PlayTime55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459964.6%64 W · 35 L+19.9wins+0.20per pick45cpaid+67.7%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x1a35…6fe0backed 1win45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454854.2%26 W · 22 L+5.0wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+12.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6c2a…b7b5backed PlayTime65c99.99$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356162.3%38 W · 23 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbbb…5693backed 1win42c99.98$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.99633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-24.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5471…a236backed PlayTime66c90$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.96949.3%34 W · 35 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed PlayTime65c87$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.691,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9120…ae70backed PlayTime59c84.75$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.7521062.4%131 W · 79 L+0.8wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb97e…262bbacked 1win40c75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3052649.2%259 W · 267 L+21.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e4d…1cb0backed 1win44c73.42$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.557654.5%314 W · 262 L+29.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed PlayTime74c69.16$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.82,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x73a2…3b68backed PlayTime61c66.33$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.8725648%123 W · 133 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked 1win18c66.22$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6666545.6%303 W · 362 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ecf…fc09backed 1win23c64.82$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.66333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-46.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed 1win43c60.74$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3991553.3%488 W · 427 L+48.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f42…1f72backed PlayTime62c60$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.831865.1%207 W · 111 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf67d…c986backed 1win37c59.46$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2239042.1%164 W · 226 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fa6…dbd6backed PlayTime58c51.72$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.7222961.1%140 W · 89 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7add…7a7bbacked 1win40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17cb…edaabacked 1win37c49.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.52751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x606f…71cebacked 1win35c37.14$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1313348.1%64 W · 69 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6795…4a4cbacked 1win36c36.11$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1313246.2%61 W · 71 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed 1win41c35$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.351,01345.5%461 W · 552 L-46.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaed7…baa3backed PlayTime58c34.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4831648.7%154 W · 162 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x748a…7b60backed PlayTime59c33.9$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.92653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fa6…03ebbacked 1win39c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.720046%92 W · 108 L+13.2wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe0b5…a0d7backed 1win40c27.5$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1118042.8%77 W · 103 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31d9…e73dbacked PlayTime67c26.99$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.913164.5%20 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6fb…67b9backed PlayTime57c25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.81163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+15.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0633…cfdebacked PlayTime69c18.77$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.822075%15 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+28.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6117…2fafbacked PlayTime67c17.52$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.7817373.4%127 W · 46 L+10.4wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.