Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on August 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdedcff2f455d05c9448b4435505f9a6e5f8037a88d09e72099d9a1e6f2d592f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,514
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,337
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,514 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 29c | 681.95$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.33 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 32c | 423.09$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.51 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 25c | 368.16$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.14 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 184.77$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.47 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…783abacked No | 37c | 167.89$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.72 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 25c | 161$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.49 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 31c | 158.25$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.88 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4c…2918backed Yes | 31c | 154.95$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.57 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 70c | 146$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.2 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 33c | 143.86$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.82 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 63c | 138$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.3 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 65c | 132.84$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.85 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x207e…319abacked Yes | 29c | 124.66$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.51 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b7…fefdbacked Yes | 29c | 123.36$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.36 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 75c | 120$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 17c | 115.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.92 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 110$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.28 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 78c | 104.96$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 68c | 102.94$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…ce5abacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 24c | 99.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 57c | 97.91$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.11 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x438c…986bbacked Yes | 23c | 86.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.98 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 65c | 86.89$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.18 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…63a4backed Yes | 35c | 85.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.72 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 57c | 70.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 24c | 69.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 50c | 62.6$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 34c | 59.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 71c | 52.95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 75c | 46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 26c | 44.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.05 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2194…ae18backed No | 37c | 41.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked No | 30c | 41.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 31c | 41.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.58 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed Yes | 32c | 34.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.71 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 43c | 33.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 40c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 36c | 32.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02e2…701abacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 67c | 29.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 48c | 29.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 51c | 28.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 28.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 73c | 26.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87c8…e0a9backed Yes | 64c | 25.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x598f…528bbacked Yes | 72c | 23.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 50c | 23.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 69c | 20.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…7dc5backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 66c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed No | 65c | 15.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…d98ebacked No | 66c | 15.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 67c | 14.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 70c | 14.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3dd…81b2backed Yes | 79c | 12.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x819f…547bbacked Yes | 79c | 12.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on August 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C or higher on August 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.