NHL · resolved market
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf2876a44d9929973be979cdfc5270105ae6a65612de6c8ff92270126b88b967
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Utahof Golden Knights, Utah
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,871
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,886
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,871 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5bec…b215backed Golden Knights | 35c | 2,052$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.31 | 164 | 42.7%70 W · 94 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Golden Knights | 35c | 1,800$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.99 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Utah | 64c | 1,657$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.36 | 267 | 50.2%134 W · 133 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa048…dd23backed Utah | 65c | 1,341$872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.43 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46fb…2b75backed Golden Knights | 35c | 912.67$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.43 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…b384backed Golden Knights | 35c | 857.15$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x282f…5898backed Golden Knights | 36c | 801.33$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.48 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Utah | 65c | 670.16$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.56 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa535…9e5ebacked Utah | 65c | 639.29$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.75 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b99…4b3abacked Golden Knights | 36c | 534.65$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.47 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x844e…4efdbacked Utah | 77c | 456.83$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.07 | 52 | 76.9%40 W · 12 L | +11.6wins | +0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1489…9924backed Utah | 65c | 436.63$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.82 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa415…6fb9backed Utah | 65c | 364.19$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.47 | 85 | 48.2%41 W · 44 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…8dbbbacked Golden Knights | 28c | 327.01$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.99 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d9…c125backed Utah | 66c | 297.26$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.35 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Golden Knights | 43c | 289.6$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.78 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Utah | 70c | 270.85$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.77 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Utah | 75c | 268.94$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.56 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea9…0924backed Golden Knights | 36c | 268.42$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Utah | 64c | 218.92$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.81 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Golden Knights | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 261 | 36%94 W · 167 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd5…bf27backed Utah | 65c | 167.41$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.59 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…fbfebacked Utah | 65c | 150$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbced…5808backed Utah | 65c | 146.85$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.4 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Golden Knights | 35c | 142.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 477 | 53.9%257 W · 220 L | +18.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda4a…d328backed Golden Knights | 35c | 138.63$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Utah | 66c | 118.74$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.37 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0612…559abacked Utah | 65c | 118.46$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.46 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f97…d227backed Utah | 65c | 118.46$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c5…b613backed Utah | 65c | 118.46$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.46 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Golden Knights | 28c | 110.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51cb…0c9fbacked Golden Knights | 35c | 105.81$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Golden Knights | 34c | 103.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.08 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36d0…8dcebacked Utah | 65c | 97.9$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.26 | 180 | 46.7%84 W · 96 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Utah | 67c | 87.78$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Utah | 66c | 75.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Utah | 65c | 73.24$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Golden Knights | 29c | 68.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 355 | 51%181 W · 174 L | +18.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Utah | 66c | 59.76$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 230 | 63%145 W · 85 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Golden Knights | 34c | 57.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f86…ef4ebacked Golden Knights | 26c | 55.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Utah | 65c | 52.72$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6016…1e75backed Golden Knights | 37c | 52.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Utah | 66c | 49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Golden Knights | 35c | 48.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Golden Knights | 27c | 44.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Utah | 72c | 44.04$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 155 | 60%93 W · 62 L | +13.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Golden Knights | 26c | 42.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Golden Knights | 35c | 39.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…069ebacked Golden Knights | 35c | 38.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Golden Knights | 31c | 35.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 470 | 24%113 W · 357 L | -44.6wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Golden Knights | 33c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 148 | 55.4%82 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Golden Knights | 35c | 33.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Utah | 65c | 31.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…c07bbacked Utah | 65c | 30.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 178 | 53.9%96 W · 82 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Utah | 65c | 30.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 227 | 63.4%144 W · 83 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…7239backed Utah | 66c | 29.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 111 | 44.1%49 W · 62 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4daa…8923backed Utah | 65c | 29.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Golden Knights | 35c | 29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x454b…8528backed Utah | 65c | 24.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Utah | 64c | 24.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 268 | 49.6%133 W · 135 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Utah | 65c | 22.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2806…5feebacked Utah | 75c | 21.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Utah | 66c | 20.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab4…5c9cbacked Utah | 75c | 19.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 31 | 83.9%26 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 76cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0164…2475backed Utah | 75c | 19.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20fe…884cbacked Utah | 66c | 19.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…aa35backed Utah | 70c | 19.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6733…acb9backed Utah | 74c | 19.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Utah | 73c | 18.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x902f…fb2dbacked Utah | 74c | 16.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)this page
- Utah vs. Golden KnightsUtah won
- Utah vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5Over won
- Utah vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5Under won
- Utah vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5Under won
- Utah vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.