TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs Black Phoenix (BO3) - Moscow Cyber Games European Qualifier Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Black Phoenixof ex-RUBY, Black Phoenix
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$113,584
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$123,488

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $113,584 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 182 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x82d2…beeabacked Black Phoenix48c9,751$4,653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,098.21,01152.3%529 W · 482 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7cb…32d3backed Black Phoenix42c6,294$2,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,649.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed Black Phoenix49c4,309$2,101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,208.12,52243%1,085 W · 1,437 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ebc…a33dbacked Black Phoenix51c4,106$2,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,001.163157.1%360 W · 271 L+40.1wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-7.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe4c6…7457backed Black Phoenix45c3,881$1,747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,134.275556.4%31 W · 24 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+19.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0284…97f6backed Black Phoenix44c3,571$1,585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,985.85251.9%27 W · 25 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c26…98b9backed ex-RUBY53c3,510$1,861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,860.6450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x609f…fa6fbacked Black Phoenix47c3,160$1,479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,681.032100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+86.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf84d…8830backed ex-RUBY52c2,961$1,529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,529.486663.6%42 W · 24 L+7.8wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+22.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed ex-RUBY53c2,696$1,429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,428.5769445%312 W · 382 L-24.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd747…076cbacked ex-RUBY56c2,669$1,483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4833850%19 W · 19 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-8.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x051c…ca3fbacked Black Phoenix50c2,500$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,25035847.5%170 W · 188 L-13.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdff6…1963backed Black Phoenix46c2,393$1,109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,283.994560%27 W · 18 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5135…7217backed ex-RUBY57c2,378$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,350.071,62052.7%853 W · 767 L+57.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Black Phoenix45c2,244$1,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,241.27,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bcd…0a69backed Black Phoenix42c1,950$819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,130.779349.5%46 W · 47 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28e4…fe39backed Black Phoenix46c1,360$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$739.931457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7224…1fefbacked ex-RUBY57c1,331$757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$757250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd677…7579backed ex-RUBY60c1,171$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702.65046%23 W · 27 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-19.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked ex-RUBY53c1,162$613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613.333,20245.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L-79.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a2c…3c32backed ex-RUBY54c1,105$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60019061.6%117 W · 73 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f8e…0c69backed Black Phoenix49c1,100$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56127438.3%105 W · 169 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51f9…19a0backed ex-RUBY65c1,004$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.62090%18 W · 2 L+5.3wins+0.27per pick63cpaid+74.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Black Phoenix42c973.78$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.795,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeef6…cd4cbacked ex-RUBY63c892.85$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.517448.3%84 W · 90 L-0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f3…5402backed Black Phoenix32c771.41$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.062650%13 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x203a…935fbacked ex-RUBY58c737.93$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42828454.9%156 W · 128 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Black Phoenix45c718.31$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.762,34942.5%998 W · 1,351 L-72.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30dc…f26ebacked Black Phoenix50c682.26$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.1316236.4%59 W · 103 L-0.6wins0.00per pick37cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x984f…9a43backed Black Phoenix43c635.4$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.48570.6%60 W · 25 L+18.5wins+0.22per pick49cpaid+47.4%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x25f8…66c2backed Black Phoenix47c632.29$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.291442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-24.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Black Phoenix51c612.71$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.165,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2c3…0566backed Black Phoenix48c603.28$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.689662.5%60 W · 36 L+7.6wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeb17…c84bbacked ex-RUBY57c580.99$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.172259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+39.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed ex-RUBY53c571.36$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30048350.9%246 W · 237 L-20.9wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xed44…4f76backed Black Phoenix42c562.18$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.9451942.2%219 W · 300 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfabe…f1c9backed Black Phoenix49c558.98$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.082161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x895d…f2a3backed ex-RUBY56c555$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.81421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.9wins-0.20per pick42cpaid-49.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb40e…7787backed ex-RUBY60c516.5$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.7520743%89 W · 118 L-14.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-13%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc28f…6193backed Black Phoenix46c502.67$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.3710956.9%62 W · 47 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbadb…31a7backed Black Phoenix48c500.95$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.5112344.7%55 W · 68 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6200…7d23backed Black Phoenix47c471.26$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.3616036.3%58 W · 102 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Black Phoenix48c464.1$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.0275833.4%253 W · 505 L-48.9wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-31%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf9d6…730abacked ex-RUBY53c438.76$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.799565.3%62 W · 33 L+9.0wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x5317…9a3bbacked Black Phoenix42c428.72$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.662259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Black Phoenix49c423.34$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.713,45929.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L-279.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x574c…5e18backed ex-RUBY55c421.9$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c64…89babacked ex-RUBY52c420$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.434542.3%146 W · 199 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc754…4b1dbacked ex-RUBY56c400$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22434140.8%139 W · 202 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a50…241ebacked ex-RUBY51c392.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002642.3%11 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed ex-RUBY68c390.49$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.132,32645.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f41…260ebacked ex-RUBY55c369$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.9516550.3%83 W · 82 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2140…0e12backed ex-RUBY52c368$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.0855039.6%218 W · 332 L-20.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f66…0f71backed ex-RUBY65c310$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.51338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-31.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6c5…20d0backed Black Phoenix49c300.88$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.4361054.9%335 W · 275 L+10.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e83…00aabacked ex-RUBY58c300$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17417142.1%72 W · 99 L-9.6wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed ex-RUBY57c300$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17199148.3%479 W · 512 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d87…df1dbacked ex-RUBY51c300$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15217545.7%80 W · 95 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc386…386fbacked Black Phoenix50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15025944.8%116 W · 143 L+12.2wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+30%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1025…7e11backed ex-RUBY52c299.99$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15555941%229 W · 330 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cea…7a2fbacked ex-RUBY78c276.02$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda6e…1a11backed ex-RUBY56c270$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.3425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-60.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd957…acd3backed ex-RUBY58c262.93$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.51145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-28.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54b0…df70backed ex-RUBY54c258.15$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.43956.4%22 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Black Phoenix42c241.55$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.12,00953.9%1,082 W · 927 L+7.6wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed Black Phoenix42c238.05$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.8846555.1%256 W · 209 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Black Phoenix53c235.55$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.933,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked ex-RUBY55c224$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.272353.5%387 W · 336 L+28.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed ex-RUBY39c219.51$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.291,61846.8%758 W · 860 L-28.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf03c…add8backed Black Phoenix36c206.3$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.21361.5%8 W · 5 L-0.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb697…5d0cbacked ex-RUBY57c201.4$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1144845.8%22 W · 26 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d40…dd57backed ex-RUBY57c201.35$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.5712340.7%50 W · 73 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86ca…bc47backed ex-RUBY57c200$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1146741.8%28 W · 39 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b27…0635backed ex-RUBY55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11031749.5%157 W · 160 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Black Phoenix42c196.11$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.742,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc785…4ef2backed ex-RUBY26c195.63$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.5113537%50 W · 85 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-31.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f38…13c8backed ex-RUBY54c188.33$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.558655.8%48 W · 38 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd62…4e9abacked ex-RUBY67c185.07$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1242360.9%14 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc0c…dac0backed Black Phoenix71c178.56$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5141475.4%312 W · 102 L+22.1wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdeaf…9436backed ex-RUBY59c168.87$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-36.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b9b…124dbacked Black Phoenix55c162.75$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.241258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb595…5922backed Black Phoenix53c150.28$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.7819953.8%107 W · 92 L+10.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x40c2…aef7backed Black Phoenix79c150$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.54252.4%22 W · 20 L+4.7wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+17%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Black Phoenix38c148.67$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.314,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Black Phoenix42c141.42$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.4833627.7%93 W · 243 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-22.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x207b…8118backed ex-RUBY53c137.83$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.052433.3%8 W · 16 L-4.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-26.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed ex-RUBY51c137$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.833435.3%12 W · 22 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-39%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xece0…7dc9backed Black Phoenix41c136.79$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.15450%27 W · 27 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a59…aec1backed ex-RUBY59c136.25$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.93922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.25per pick47cpaid-65.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed Black Phoenix36c133$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.2213142.7%56 W · 75 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-21%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed ex-RUBY55c131$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.638636%31 W · 55 L-4.8wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdcce…c920backed Black Phoenix48c127.08$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.0817361.3%106 W · 67 L+0.1wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46e4…c6dabacked Black Phoenix53c124.93$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.872142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb569…6fe0backed ex-RUBY54c122.43$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.6138452.3%201 W · 183 L+10.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1612…9dedbacked ex-RUBY54c120$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.825551.8%132 W · 123 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeeaa…15cebacked Black Phoenix50c120$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603756.8%21 W · 16 L+5.7wins+0.15per pick41cpaid+33.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7e18…872ebacked Black Phoenix43c116.28$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.285172.5%37 W · 14 L+7.6wins+0.15per pick58cpaid+23.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed ex-RUBY58c112.93$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.761,84847.6%879 W · 969 L-55.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad22…014abacked Black Phoenix48c110$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.265548.9%320 W · 335 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b55…cbc6backed ex-RUBY54c109.55$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.76346%29 W · 34 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.