Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe05d4f9f59b635e97e10f0ec9aca657d28177022ec25ad22f67a6f9724dc2c3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,582
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,833
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,582 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 31c | 577.75$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.83 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 33c | 527$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.4 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2edc…a207backed Yes | 36c | 460.72$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.87 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 65c | 402.7$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.11 | 632 | 21.8%138 W · 494 L | -33.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 35c | 376.93$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.25 | 3,064 | 33.5%1,027 W · 2,037 L | +13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ec…f311backed No | 71c | 300$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf685…5ec9backed Yes | 75c | 273.75$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.55 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 65c | 264.73$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.05 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 52c | 190.63$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 64c | 168.29$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.91 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…8834backed No | 67c | 165.32$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.32 | 139 | 47.5%66 W · 73 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 144.28$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.38 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 33c | 136.38$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 37c | 133$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 130.68$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.14 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00b2…3ef1backed No | 78c | 127.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.03 | 83 | 74.7%62 W · 21 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…bcccbacked Yes | 45c | 110.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 159 | 26.4%42 W · 117 L | -9.9wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31b1…11d2backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 112 | 51.8%58 W · 54 L | +14.2wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 47c | 96.45$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.68 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 63c | 88.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.78 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 69c | 81.27$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked No | 43c | 77.88$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.51 | 228 | 25.9%59 W · 169 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 67c | 73.24$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c43…1608backed No | 70c | 70.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 78c | 70$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 415 | 51.3%213 W · 202 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked Yes | 36c | 68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 56c | 66.86$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.39 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 42c | 66.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.69 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e7…c727backed No | 64c | 66$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 37c | 65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 446 | 44.6%199 W · 247 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 492 | 59.6%293 W · 199 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 62c | 59.89$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.69 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 35c | 57.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 34c | 54.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 39c | 53.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 36c | 53.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 175 | 38.9%68 W · 107 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 30c | 47.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 7,233 | 9.3%675 W · 6,558 L | -1,116.1wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xca4f…9f11backed Yes | 34c | 44.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 36c | 42.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.24 | 269 | 60.2%162 W · 107 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 49c | 40.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 43c | 36.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3be5…bc8bbacked Yes | 33c | 34.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 57 | 70.2%40 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 68c | 34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 4,148 | 56.7%2,351 W · 1,797 L | +51.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 66c | 32.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 1,615 | 61.9%999 W · 616 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 67c | 32.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 358 | 64%229 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6288…fd46backed No | 63c | 31.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…e969backed No | 58c | 31.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62bf…6e7ebacked Yes | 74c | 31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.2wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x67a3…2b91backed No | 71c | 30.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 43 | 81.4%35 W · 8 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 69cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf634…7f6fbacked Yes | 79c | 30.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 4,627 | 58.3%2,696 W · 1,931 L | -114.2wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,196 | 50.8%608 W · 588 L | -27.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 2,434 | 79.4%1,933 W · 501 L | +99.7wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfca6…6595backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 63c | 29.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 70c | 27.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 65c | 27.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 169 | 58.6%99 W · 70 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 68c | 26.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 580 | 53.4%310 W · 270 L | -26.4wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 62c | 26.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 61c | 25.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 375 | 50.7%190 W · 185 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 53c | 24.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 66c | 22.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 265 | 57.7%153 W · 112 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 54c | 18.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1,335 | 50.9%680 W · 655 L | -35.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 60c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 493 | 63.5%313 W · 180 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 60c | 17.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 941 | 62.3%586 W · 355 L | -24.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 17.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 58c | 17.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed No | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 197 | 50.8%100 W · 97 L | -15.4wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on August 27?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.