Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x251caebcd6e5a7f21590c6462a927c49588f1f729860e24225409b15834b6a12
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,915
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,004
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,915 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 14c | 1,161$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.25 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 44c | 508.14$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.5 | 557 | 42.5%237 W · 320 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 13c | 438.96$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.97 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…e5c8backed No | 8c | 399.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 78 | 9%7 W · 71 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…8834backed Yes | 48c | 301.01$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.01 | 139 | 47.5%66 W · 73 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 32c | 252.76$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.29 | 632 | 21.8%138 W · 494 L | -33.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 43c | 237.52$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.56 | 265 | 56.2%149 W · 116 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18ec…f311backed No | 74c | 229.31$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.64 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 58c | 180.63$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.62 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 51c | 180.02$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.42 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 38c | 128$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.79 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb530…3c03backed Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.2 | 79 | 13.9%11 W · 68 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d42…5bf3backed Yes | 44c | 116.98$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.51 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 49c | 116.11$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.45 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 68c | 112$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 451 | 67%302 W · 149 L | +39.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a34…92cdbacked Yes | 54c | 109.43$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.48 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 16c | 108.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 59c | 105.15$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.29 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 29c | 104.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.24 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62bf…6e7ebacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.2wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 56c | 98.64$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.97 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 90$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.36 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 56c | 82.52$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.21 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 64c | 81.52$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.1 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 34c | 81.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 80.2$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.31 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 68c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 51c | 79.96$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.03 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 36c | 78.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e7…c727backed Yes | 50c | 74.84$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 43c | 71.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ab…d374backed Yes | 70c | 70.2$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 35c | 65.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 56c | 64.53$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 144 | 55.6%80 W · 64 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 29c | 61.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…6307backed Yes | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 20c | 59.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 7,233 | 9.3%675 W · 6,558 L | -1,116.1wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 54c | 50.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 28c | 46.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 69c | 46.35$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 46c | 43.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 671 | 38.9%261 W · 410 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 45c | 42.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 168 | 68.5%115 W · 53 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 50c | 40.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 1,632 | 60.7%990 W · 642 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 133 | 51.9%69 W · 64 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 37c | 39.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.67 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2edc…a207backed Yes | 56c | 37.05$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b91…0a35backed Yes | 67c | 33.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 75c | 33.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 60c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 795 | 36.6%291 W · 504 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 55c | 32.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 575 | 59.7%343 W · 232 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 54c | 31.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…e969backed Yes | 42c | 31.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67a3…2b91backed Yes | 61c | 30.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 43 | 81.4%35 W · 8 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 69cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 5,489 | 56%3,075 W · 2,414 L | -123.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 54c | 27.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 1,615 | 61.9%999 W · 616 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 57c | 27.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 27.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 55c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 4,313 | 53.6%2,311 W · 2,002 L | +158.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 814 | 57.5%468 W · 346 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc925…767cbacked Yes | 72c | 21.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd886…1746backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d34…4f61backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf09f…1ca0backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f74…a12fbacked No | 63c | 16.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.