NBA · resolved market
Spread: Celtics (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0e7d06b132444b710b04a3fd36aa1aeb75ac2f70a5c277de8ad2e158fa61a16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Celticsof Celtics, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $203,339
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $200,455
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $203,339 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cb…28adbacked Celtics | 51c | 146,483$74,706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71,776.52 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Kings | 49c | 106,365$52,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52,118.89 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…3782backed Celtics | 50c | 34,302$17,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,206.55 | 874 | 51.5%450 W · 424 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Kings | 49c | 25,792$12,638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,638.19 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed Kings | 50c | 15,721$7,811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,810.53 | 488 | 45.3%221 W · 267 L | +18.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Kings | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000.21 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Kings | 50c | 9,739$4,837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,837.27 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8366…21ebbacked Kings | 59c | 4,400$2,596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,595.88 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Celtics | 41c | 4,258$1,756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,502.16 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Kings | 50c | 2,273$1,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,128.67 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Kings | 50c | 1,944$962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$962.28 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Celtics | 51c | 1,178$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.97 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x611a…e63ebacked Kings | 3c | 1,100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 43 | 7%3 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Kings | 52c | 1,016$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.3 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…44f1backed Kings | 50c | 1,010$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507 | 254 | 52.8%134 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Kings | 3c | 1,000$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 158 | 7%11 W · 147 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16da…ef29backed Kings | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 129 | 60.5%78 W · 51 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d1…c566backed Kings | 49c | 719.63$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc87b…51d4backed Kings | 66c | 607$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Kings | 49c | 513.72$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Kings | 53c | 500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 184 | 40.8%75 W · 109 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe203…1b53backed Kings | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 274 | 35.4%97 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…26f0backed Kings | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 95 | 15.8%15 W · 80 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe02f…669fbacked Kings | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 132 | 28.8%38 W · 94 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2439…2e1fbacked Kings | 51c | 331.49$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.06 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed Kings | 50c | 286.05$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.03 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a0…35b6backed Kings | 50c | 211.45$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.69 | 153 | 48.4%74 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…7993backed Kings | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 617 | 47.8%295 W · 322 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb153…d8b5backed Kings | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Kings | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 85 | 11.8%10 W · 75 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Kings | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 403 | 46.2%186 W · 217 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Celtics | 50c | 161.51$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.53 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…d693backed Kings | 66c | 152.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Kings | 49c | 148.03$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.07 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Kings | 49c | 136.11$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.69 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Kings | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc081…224dbacked Kings | 70c | 95.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.19 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8762…ed46backed Kings | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2f…6645backed Kings | 60c | 87$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.41 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Celtics | 48c | 86$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.72 | 745 | 47.2%352 W · 393 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cf…1dc8backed Kings | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2091…b4f8backed Kings | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -9.7wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4006…5813backed Kings | 51c | 55.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.7wins | -0.22per pick | 40cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Celtics | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 930 | 36.5%339 W · 591 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Kings | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 685 | 42.6%292 W · 393 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0969…b289backed Kings | 49c | 37.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 222 | 47.3%105 W · 117 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Celtics | 50c | 35.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 659 | 50.8%335 W · 324 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6630…703cbacked Kings | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c27…b3c6backed Celtics | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0e…4049backed Kings | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 242 | 53.3%129 W · 113 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9549…b936backed Kings | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 244 | 52.5%128 W · 116 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c88…d85dbacked Kings | 51c | 29.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +7.5wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2722…697abacked Celtics | 50c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x394a…536ebacked Kings | 51c | 24.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -39%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba54…409fbacked Kings | 51c | 23.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Celtics | 50c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 379 | 49.3%187 W · 192 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Kings | 49c | 20.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…69e3backed Kings | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…be9abacked Celtics | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 160 | 52.5%84 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Celtics (-10.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-5.5)Kings won
- Celtics vs. KingsCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Kings: 1H O/U 117.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Kings: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Kings: O/U 227.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Kings: O/U 228.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Kings: O/U 229.5Under won
- Spread: Celtics (-8.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-9.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.