NBA · resolved market
Celtics vs. Kings: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc107a2585b60b60ec0bf3d387e65bc32d07d6a20d1bac909894e158e47b5e600
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $150,605
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $150,879
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $150,605 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cb…28adbacked Over | 52c | 125,922$65,408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65,407.56 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Under | 48c | 72,472$34,787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37,685.44 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 48c | 10,062$4,830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,232.49 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 10,050$4,824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,225.99 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 48c | 10,000$4,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,200 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 7,532$3,665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,866.7 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 48c | 4,000$1,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,080 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Over | 5c | 2,963$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.15 | 390 | 18.2%71 W · 319 L | +27.6wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…44f1backed Under | 49c | 2,306$1,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,176.12 | 254 | 52.8%134 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24d8…e8a8backed Under | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca5…73bcbacked Under | 51c | 1,225$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.49 | 404 | 51.5%208 W · 196 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 51c | 1,064$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.23 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 48c | 1,039$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.04 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…1862backed Under | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.41 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…fa2cbacked Under | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.54 | 218 | 52.8%115 W · 103 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 16c | 950$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 48c | 763$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.76 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 50c | 626$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…9f15backed Under | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 139 | 51.1%71 W · 68 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 46c | 246.42$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.1 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 48c | 245.68$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.76 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd00e…fb86backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Over | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 249 | 55.8%139 W · 110 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87ae…811bbacked Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 175 | 45.7%80 W · 95 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 39c | 146.54$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.05 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0a…6b9fbacked Over | 63c | 120$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -6.0wins | -0.30per pick | 40cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Over | 50c | 108$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 232 | 50.4%117 W · 115 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 304 | 52.6%160 W · 144 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01fa…c2edbacked Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 174 | 47.7%83 W · 91 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…5c69backed Over | 61c | 99.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.99 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 373 | 52%194 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Under | 47c | 96.22$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.76 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 51c | 84.31$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.31 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ca…0a0dbacked Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 126 | 48.4%61 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf8…2540backed Under | 60c | 77.06$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 41c | 70$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 48c | 62.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.03 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc36…1b11backed Over | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Over | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 230 | 47.4%109 W · 121 L | +19.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2d…241bbacked Under | 44c | 41.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d97…de9dbacked Over | 56c | 41.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…8830backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb781…0adcbacked Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8849…9a83backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 561 | 54.5%306 W · 255 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9549…b936backed Under | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 244 | 52.5%128 W · 116 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Over | 54c | 29.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 379 | 49.3%187 W · 192 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…6e99backed Under | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 48c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ae…ba41backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Celtics vs. Kings: O/U 229.5this page
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-5.5)Kings won
- Celtics vs. KingsCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Kings: 1H O/U 117.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Kings: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Kings: O/U 227.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Kings: O/U 228.5Under won
- Spread: Celtics (-10.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-8.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-9.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.