Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0ebca6e861b31be6f7dd328fd7d346cae5d0480bb2895d8b98ff76db3daf325
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,688
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,380
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,688 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 46c | 1,945$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$903.05 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 29c | 1,210$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.65 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 44c | 612$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.81 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 60c | 576$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.57 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 53c | 500$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.19 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 68c | 475.02$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.68 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 56c | 434$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.36 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 433.98$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.67 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 54c | 403.76$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.71 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 54c | 361.99$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.94 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked No | 55c | 360.11$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.05 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 354$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.75 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 3c | 339.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 59c | 318.5$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.49 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 35c | 245.2$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.04 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 30c | 234.68$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.73 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd132…d314backed Yes | 38c | 217.59$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.56 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 71c | 206$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.12 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 60c | 204.56$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.83 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 37c | 200$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.85 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 42c | 192.48$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd41…392bbacked Yes | 50c | 182.42$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.89 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 57c | 179.6$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.58 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 53c | 178.25$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.62 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 42c | 177.5$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.79 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 169.87$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 76c | 169$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.86 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 47c | 165.65$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.19 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 31c | 159.24$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.08 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 71c | 159$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.11 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 48c | 152.93$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.97 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 49c | 139.26$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.34 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a87…911fbacked No | 63c | 124.12$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.46 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa72b…ac69backed Yes | 42c | 119.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 9c | 119.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 52c | 114$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.75 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 49c | 101.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d34…4f61backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…f3febacked Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.95 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 44c | 99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.7 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 45c | 99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.84 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 22c | 97.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 23c | 94.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 45c | 89.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 62c | 79.48$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.02 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked Yes | 27c | 78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc20…c5dbbacked No | 47c | 77.41$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.03 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 65c | 75.12$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 55c | 72.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.69 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08b4…624ebacked Yes | 38c | 71.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 43c | 69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 66.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 61c | 64.36$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 65c | 61.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 43c | 58.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 47c | 58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 44c | 56.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 47c | 53.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 62c | 50.91$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9973…6e40backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 32c | 47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 77c | 46.81$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 61c | 46.77$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 45c | 44.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 65c | 44.05$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 25c | 40.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 44c | 40.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.43 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 49c | 38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 32c | 37.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 68c | 35.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea4…90edbacked No | 66c | 34.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +7.7wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 62c | 34.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed No | 79c | 33.79$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed No | 41c | 33.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 62c | 32.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfba…033dbacked Yes | 52c | 31.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 31.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 61c | 30.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 41c | 29.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 66c | 27.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 46c | 27.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 42c | 25.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 51c | 25.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…042fbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39b7…847cbacked Yes | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -6.1wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…9e0cbacked No | 77c | 24.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -7.5wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd37f…28bebacked No | 66c | 24.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 49c | 24.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.