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Lol · resolved market

LoL: FURIA Esports vs Leviatan Esports (BO5) - CBLOL Cup Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
FURIA Esportsof FURIA Esports, Leviatan Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$234,004
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$250,530

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $234,004 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 148 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6adc…bebabacked Leviatan Esports21c46,948$9,629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,628.665639.3%22 W · 34 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+25.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x17f1…af18backed Leviatan Esports5c35,557$1,856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,856.043775.6%21 W · 356 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b9f…e125backed Leviatan Esports15c17,415$2,536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,535.526541.5%27 W · 38 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc19b…a935backed Leviatan Esports18c15,968$2,846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,845.7221937.9%83 W · 136 L-0.6wins0.00per pick38cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe248…5897backed FURIA Esports78c14,146$10,986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,160.282100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+73.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf164…8fa4backed FURIA Esports78c13,422$10,469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,952.845954.2%32 W · 27 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+61.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x88b9…0fc9backed Leviatan Esports23c11,647$2,679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,678.7834837.4%130 W · 218 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed FURIA Esports77c9,368$7,213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,154.6412944.2%57 W · 72 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x42ff…8775backed Leviatan Esports23c6,300$1,449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,44910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeffd…5a86backed FURIA Esports77c5,000$3,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,15044047.5%209 W · 231 L+11.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa0b…9672backed Leviatan Esports23c5,000$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1503815.8%6 W · 32 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-28.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Leviatan Esports19c4,980$961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$961.061,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb14e…14f8backed FURIA Esports78c4,890$3,814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,075.82100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+136.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed FURIA Esports77c4,468$3,453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,015.491,25838.6%485 W · 773 L-61.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8488…588cbacked Leviatan Esports24c4,400$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,040.428943.8%39 W · 50 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked FURIA Esports77c3,363$2,593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$770.0720348.8%99 W · 104 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3414…067abacked Leviatan Esports22c3,319$724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$723.7677131.8%245 W · 526 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed Leviatan Esports23c3,013$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692.957945.9%266 W · 313 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x988d…9899backed FURIA Esports77c2,699$2,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$620.748842.4%207 W · 281 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed FURIA Esports78c2,564$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.11,01847.7%486 W · 532 L+9.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x778d…cbe2backed FURIA Esports79c2,526$1,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.643545.7%16 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x65ce…b90bbacked Leviatan Esports10c2,345$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.066139.3%24 W · 37 L+0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8796…8015backed Leviatan Esports23c2,300$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x129d…3bcabacked FURIA Esports77c2,281$1,756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb275…c76fbacked Leviatan Esports25c2,017$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50019244.3%85 W · 107 L-8.9wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x03b9…0e4dbacked FURIA Esports78c1,909$1,489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.98250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2a5…391cbacked FURIA Esports77c1,687$1,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.012941.4%12 W · 17 L-3.2wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-30.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Leviatan Esports21c1,522$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.299338.6%383 W · 610 L-21.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-19.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd1e…ff14backed FURIA Esports78c1,436$1,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.64860.4%29 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe96e…f963backed Leviatan Esports23c1,309$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.18250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b18…84f7backed FURIA Esports77c1,300$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2991100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2560…0b02backed Leviatan Esports23c1,295$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.8539749.1%195 W · 202 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Leviatan Esports18c1,266$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.6612927.9%36 W · 93 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-19.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Leviatan Esports20c1,121$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.1876953.4%411 W · 358 L+13.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d20…ca2abacked Leviatan Esports20c1,100$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21913935.3%49 W · 90 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-18.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed FURIA Esports76c1,000$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2403,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb41c…20f9backed FURIA Esports77c1,000$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2301100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4085…583fbacked Leviatan Esports10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002520%5 W · 20 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-50.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9d45…4418backed FURIA Esports77c1,000$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2301100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd6f…e887backed FURIA Esports76c1,000$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x026d…47edbacked Leviatan Esports3c999.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28267.7%2 W · 24 L-3.0wins-0.12per pick19cpaid-73.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd9f8…e913backed FURIA Esports77c927.27$714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.274744.7%21 W · 26 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-25%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3435…1913backed FURIA Esports77c924$711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.523759.5%22 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e32…ab65backed FURIA Esports79c899.99$711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1892,19153.5%1,173 W · 1,018 L+63.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5215…3164backed Leviatan Esports24c800$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19210937.6%41 W · 68 L-0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x683e…df7fbacked FURIA Esports77c800$616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1841100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2bb…ea55backed FURIA Esports78c769.23$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.2318549.7%92 W · 93 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Leviatan Esports20c759.78$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.711,73144.2%765 W · 966 L-28.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c0f…942bbacked Leviatan Esports21c738$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.32147.6%10 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+42.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d36…18a9backed FURIA Esports77c700$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1611100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84c5…f6d0backed FURIA Esports77c700$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1611100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20ec…fa43backed Leviatan Esports3c635.06$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040645.6%185 W · 221 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Leviatan Esports8c625$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.9125923.2%60 W · 199 L-11.9wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-44.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Leviatan Esports3c603.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9689810.7%96 W · 802 L+2.6wins0.00per pick10cpaid-36.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c47…7a9fbacked Leviatan Esports22c528.29$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.9429940.1%120 W · 179 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff7c…c36abacked FURIA Esports77c521.74$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1203056.7%17 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5559…2bd2backed Leviatan Esports23c519.77$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.4221141.2%87 W · 124 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20b2…f114backed Leviatan Esports10c505.32$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.7927535.3%97 W · 178 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7f1…7eebbacked FURIA Esports77c500$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1151100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2307…d0babacked FURIA Esports77c500$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1151100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2e3…f702backed Leviatan Esports4c500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205547.3%26 W · 29 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-14.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x434c…0536backed FURIA Esports77c500$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1151100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Leviatan Esports20c484$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.4327636.2%100 W · 176 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-19.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddd3…dba6backed FURIA Esports79c472.2$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.1611833.9%40 W · 78 L-10.9wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x6d7e…3248backed Leviatan Esports6c456.08$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3621834.9%76 W · 142 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2610…972ebacked Leviatan Esports11c451.89$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507311%8 W · 65 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-72.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba0d…9a6ebacked FURIA Esports77c440$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.24951%25 W · 24 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid+6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7820…0b73backed FURIA Esports80c425.38$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.3712839.8%51 W · 77 L-11.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4b95…b23ebacked Leviatan Esports15c421$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.041,06144.8%475 W · 586 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x709b…0a2dbacked FURIA Esports77c400$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$921100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49e3…1951backed FURIA Esports77c400$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$921100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58c0…0faabacked FURIA Esports77c400$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$921100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23e9…af61backed FURIA Esports77c400$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$921100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e54…511ebacked FURIA Esports78c399.99$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8842843.2%185 W · 243 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1430…a753backed FURIA Esports76c399.99$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$963959%23 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72a9…5225backed FURIA Esports80c393.23$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.18739.1%34 W · 53 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde5a…4db5backed Leviatan Esports11c363.64$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4024939%97 W · 152 L-10.3wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-6.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb24f…c638backed Leviatan Esports18c333.33$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020051.5%103 W · 97 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed FURIA Esports79c300$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.7596254.3%522 W · 440 L+17.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7885…e04fbacked FURIA Esports78c291.12$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.05540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-25.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Leviatan Esports17c268.33$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.922,91538.5%1,122 W · 1,793 L-120.3wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa632…4c96backed FURIA Esports77c260$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.88252.4%43 W · 39 L+6.1wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+20.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x51ad…5e56backed Leviatan Esports10c238.59$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2519946.7%93 W · 106 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked FURIA Esports77c234.75$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.982,83941.4%1,175 W · 1,664 L-14.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4d1…3d4cbacked Leviatan Esports11c227.27$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530421.4%65 W · 239 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85f9…51b1backed FURIA Esports77c200$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+72.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed Leviatan Esports23c196$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.0819844.9%89 W · 109 L+1.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbda…f10fbacked Leviatan Esports13c191.73$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.65240.4%21 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid+12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d3c…3293backed FURIA Esports77c188.5$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.361457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3704…0e84backed FURIA Esports80c186.75$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.3518347%86 W · 97 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b9b…b900backed FURIA Esports77c173.38$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.881163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe26b…a9ecbacked Leviatan Esports23c170.43$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.252049.2%256 W · 264 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fd7…6c52backed Leviatan Esports11c170$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.59529.5%28 W · 67 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7124…93eabacked Leviatan Esports21c169.09$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.24344.2%19 W · 24 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f1e…5a2abacked Leviatan Esports23c163.01$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.492548%12 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x520e…d75abacked FURIA Esports80c154$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.828837.5%108 W · 180 L-16.7wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e20…ac93backed Leviatan Esports10c149.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15175.9%1 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick15cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf5e2…3c77backed FURIA Esports78c145$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.91560%9 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e7c…164dbacked FURIA Esports77c140$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.2944743.6%195 W · 252 L+1.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fc2…64d1backed FURIA Esports77c128.57$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.578042.5%34 W · 46 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.