Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2787237e88e6ded1a7ad389b4340ca4bc17e4d16413be5e17e8805f30ea1329
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,483
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,112
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,483 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x20d0…1845backed No | 2c | 2,457$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 72c | 1,442$1,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.75 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 78c | 1,270$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.75 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 8c | 1,252$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.76 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6973…b296backed Yes | 62c | 999.98$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.99 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe57…3920backed Yes | 46c | 599.84$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.21 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 552$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.16 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 47c | 478$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.72 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 13c | 475.24$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.88 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 49c | 417.48$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.82 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 8c | 392.65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 42c | 289.83$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.91 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 28c | 274.96$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.34 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 41c | 258$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.06 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 256.85$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.02 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 54c | 221.53$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.86 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 48c | 218.4$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.94 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 42c | 218.1$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.77 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9819…fe16backed Yes | 75c | 215.36$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.36 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 45c | 211.49$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.39 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 46c | 200$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.53 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 41c | 197.41$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.01 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x576d…adddbacked No | 49c | 196.63$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.64 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 50c | 194$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.27 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 41c | 171.14$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.1 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 51c | 170.24$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.82 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 48c | 158.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.44 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 41c | 152.57$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.54 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 38c | 147.29$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.75 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ed…4da6backed Yes | 51c | 142.24$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.24 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 59c | 141.09$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.95 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 56c | 137$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.28 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 135.93$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.86 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked No | 48c | 134.62$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.85 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 71c | 133.33$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.37 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 50c | 122.05$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.33 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 117.85$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.53 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 60c | 116.57$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 41c | 116.44$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.28 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 52c | 114.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.73 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 45c | 112.45$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.85 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 45c | 109.08$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.08 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 105.84$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 53c | 104.79$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.57 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 33c | 104.66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.97 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 38c | 104.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.54 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 59c | 102.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.45 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc5…d713backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1933…1a53backed Yes | 44c | 99.97$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.46 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 49c | 96.02$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.21 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 54c | 85.87$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.65 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 54c | 85$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 32c | 82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.4 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…bf91backed Yes | 79c | 80$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 45c | 79.77$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 68c | 77.4$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.61 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 24c | 77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed Yes | 54c | 76$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 51c | 75.92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 62c | 71.08$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 48c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.45 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.66 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 43c | 68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 63c | 66.02$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.56 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 56c | 66$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes | 30c | 66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 117 | 29.9%35 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 60c | 65.81$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.31 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x696f…8f04backed Yes | 18c | 64.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.53 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 56c | 63.65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 25c | 62.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 41c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe0…52dcbacked Yes | 41c | 59.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 36c | 58.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 55c | 55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 42c | 54.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 44c | 51.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.17 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…32d8backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98df…7870backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 55c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 27c | 49.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.38 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 76c | 48.34$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd702…2087backed Yes | 41c | 48.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 39c | 48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd92e…5ae3backed Yes | 49c | 46.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbe…a4dfbacked Yes | 59c | 44.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…b168backed Yes | 47c | 41.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 61c | 39.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 39c | 38.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 57c | 37.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 40c | 35.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 38c | 33.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…9899backed Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…2d4bbacked No | 40c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 74c | 31.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe05b…6d6ebacked Yes | 46c | 30.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on June 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.