TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Falconsof 3DMAX, Team Falcons
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$199,446
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$268,284

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $199,446 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3993…cdedbacked 3DMAX20c13,503$2,659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,658.8383652.5%439 W · 397 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed 3DMAX20c11,313$2,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,262.6325842.2%109 W · 149 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed 3DMAX26c10,639$2,789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,788.8151252.3%268 W · 244 L+16.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x26d6…56efbacked 3DMAX21c6,860$1,449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,449.1111249.1%55 W · 57 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+20.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Team Falcons74c6,000$4,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,56046349.9%231 W · 232 L-1.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed 3DMAX20c5,000$995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99597240.7%396 W · 576 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed 3DMAX20c4,047$809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$809.3978939.5%312 W · 477 L-3.9wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked 3DMAX19c3,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5601,61945.5%737 W · 882 L+31.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8120…54c9backed 3DMAX21c2,604$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.7920838%79 W · 129 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked 3DMAX15c2,514$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.362,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Falcons77c2,206$1,690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516.337,99050.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L+180.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b9a…3f5fbacked Team Falcons79c2,112$1,667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.6423852.9%126 W · 112 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed 3DMAX18c2,094$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.8489546.8%419 W · 476 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24d3…30abbacked 3DMAX20c2,085$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.917425.7%19 W · 55 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-28.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked 3DMAX18c2,033$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.991,06049%519 W · 541 L+37.6wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7972…594fbacked Team Falcons80c2,030$1,624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.998951.7%46 W · 43 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-9.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x16bc…decabacked 3DMAX24c2,008$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.1319529.2%57 W · 138 L-11.6wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-26.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed 3DMAX19c2,000$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3702,09241.6%871 W · 1,221 L-50.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked 3DMAX25c1,869$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.8561228.9%177 W · 435 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f93…bffabacked Team Falcons74c1,729$1,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.1778963.8%503 W · 286 L-2.5wins0.00per pick64cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5011…94b4backed 3DMAX1c1,606$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0650341.6%209 W · 294 L+1.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid+16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65e9…be4bbacked Team Falcons80c1,605$1,284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.91850%4 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-25.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ec…7307backed Team Falcons80c1,235$988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24713267.4%89 W · 43 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed 3DMAX20c1,202$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.41,42333.6%478 W · 945 L+41.8wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed 3DMAX21c1,190$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.95,87637.7%2,213 W · 3,663 L+71.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed Team Falcons80c1,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20014950.3%75 W · 74 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked 3DMAX1c1,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121,16748.2%562 W · 605 L+1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed 3DMAX22c953.2$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.732042.5%136 W · 184 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Team Falcons79c903.12$713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.6676657.8%443 W · 323 L+3.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a73…a9c8backed 3DMAX22c870$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.369635.3%246 W · 450 L-49.3wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb775…36f5backed Team Falcons80c820.06$656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.0122956.8%130 W · 99 L+9.7wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x86af…f384backed Team Falcons80c797.27$638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.459764.9%63 W · 34 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed 3DMAX22c714.9$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.2844848.4%217 W · 231 L-15.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x642c…21a7backed Team Falcons79c674.98$533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.7520251%103 W · 99 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1dfa…190bbacked 3DMAX20c664.35$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.031172.7%8 W · 3 L+3.4wins+0.31per pick42cpaid+117.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x14a6…b1b6backed Team Falcons80c645.49$516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.15451.9%28 W · 26 L+6.0wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+33.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2978…4a1cbacked Team Falcons80c630$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1263354.5%18 W · 15 L-3.7wins-0.11per pick66cpaid-23.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked 3DMAX16c604.17$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.1732832.3%106 W · 222 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa56f…ee5fbacked Team Falcons80c595.27$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.052962.1%18 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked 3DMAX18c553.62$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.2770423.9%168 W · 536 L+2.7wins0.00per pick23cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ca1…3378backed 3DMAX20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c1b…de56backed 3DMAX21c480.84$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.9810442.3%44 W · 60 L-0.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8849…9a83backed 3DMAX20c476$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.253850.6%272 W · 266 L-15.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed 3DMAX11c473.3$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.061,28322%282 W · 1,001 L-24.2wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3989…0539backed 3DMAX20c412.59$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.569137.4%34 W · 57 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd153…f849backed 3DMAX9c405.84$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.941612.5%2 W · 14 L-3.8wins-0.24per pick36cpaid-48.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked 3DMAX15c397.37$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.872,22347.5%1,056 W · 1,167 L-5.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0b1…0e7bbacked Team Falcons77c369.43$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.97633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-48.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed 3DMAX20c365$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7333232.2%107 W · 225 L-0.8wins0.00per pick32cpaid+8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x755c…0854backed Team Falcons80c346.1$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.225056%28 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfaf1…795fbacked Team Falcons78c345.64$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.0429347.1%138 W · 155 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1c9…131cbacked 3DMAX8c332.06$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.066137.7%23 W · 38 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b95…07e5backed 3DMAX21c331.14$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.5432643.3%141 W · 185 L-16.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed 3DMAX15c318.92$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1639248.7%191 W · 201 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x866a…1513backed Team Falcons79c318.17$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.821361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+18.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9919…f261backed 3DMAX20c309.4$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.8841847.1%197 W · 221 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked 3DMAX21c306.74$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.4198352.4%515 W · 468 L+26.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked 3DMAX20c300$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6023653.8%127 W · 109 L+7.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed 3DMAX15c294.43$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.364,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cb5…6be6backed 3DMAX21c265.55$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.7723433.3%78 W · 156 L-22.5wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-33.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd070…3587backed 3DMAX19c250$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa557…6e77backed 3DMAX25c247.31$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.5925749%126 W · 131 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fc8…f527backed 3DMAX13c204.76$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5949226%128 W · 364 L-45.2wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-30.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8976…7367backed 3DMAX20c201.91$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3815648.1%75 W · 81 L+10.0wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+9.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xed2f…2ae1backed 3DMAX7c200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144626.1%12 W · 34 L-4.9wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-37.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1568…c958backed Team Falcons80c196.77$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.3527950.2%140 W · 139 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11cc…4817backed Team Falcons76c194.53$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.69771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c04…a593backed 3DMAX26c183.77$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7818426.1%48 W · 136 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b1c…2a3ebacked 3DMAX24c183.48$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.0418443.5%80 W · 104 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e04…28a9backed Team Falcons80c176.27$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.2536845.1%166 W · 202 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5b3…d5c9backed Team Falcons80c161.69$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.343953.8%21 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff09…80b5backed 3DMAX20c154.2$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8418530.3%56 W · 129 L+0.5wins0.00per pick30cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed 3DMAX18c152$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2859841.3%247 W · 351 L-20.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4177…a2b4backed 3DMAX21c136.09$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.581,24841.3%516 W · 732 L+5.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x634a…6de3backed Team Falcons80c133.38$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.6842751.5%220 W · 207 L-12.8wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5cab…a8cfbacked Team Falcons80c133.18$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.6425070.8%177 W · 73 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Team Falcons80c125.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.1213058.5%76 W · 54 L-0.5wins0.00per pick59cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x626e…0bfebacked Team Falcons80c123.5$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.71172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdffe…b4d3backed 3DMAX21c113.36$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8114630.8%45 W · 101 L-8.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-27.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb1af…e611backed Team Falcons78c112.8$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.821060%6 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-18.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed Team Falcons80c104.52$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.957358.8%337 W · 236 L+16.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Team Falcons79c100.13$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.312,06150.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L-18.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe02…be9dbacked Team Falcons80c98.8$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.7631253.5%167 W · 145 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+13.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed 3DMAX21c97.2$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202,10216.8%353 W · 1,749 L-286.5wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-47.2%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xa019…c220backed 3DMAX21c95.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2021437.9%81 W · 133 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6ee…0e41backed Team Falcons50c93$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.51,04139.9%415 W · 626 L+20.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b83…f841backed 3DMAX50c90.21$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.111323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.8wins-0.22per pick45cpaid-46.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbfe9…4a83backed Team Falcons80c77.45$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.498134.6%28 W · 53 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a00…d958backed Team Falcons77c74.86$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.2231662.7%198 W · 118 L+8.1wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c39…442dbacked 3DMAX20c73.62$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1527015.2%41 W · 229 L-41.9wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-54.7%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xdbd4…65d8backed 3DMAX27c70.83$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.122540%10 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d43…3f6cbacked Team Falcons80c67.95$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5917967.6%121 W · 58 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda8a…2dbabacked Team Falcons76c64.84$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.569644.8%43 W · 53 L-7.2wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-18%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc2b6…c9c6backed Team Falcons80c64.39$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.881060%6 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3600…f72bbacked Team Falcons80c61.75$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3531950.5%161 W · 158 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae06…be4dbacked Team Falcons79c59.09$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.4114960.4%90 W · 59 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x689a…81b9backed Team Falcons80c58.51$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.72433.3%8 W · 16 L-3.1wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-31%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xddad…bce1backed Team Falcons80c55.58$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.1222252.7%117 W · 105 L-6.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b51…9ea6backed 3DMAX21c50.44$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5919053.2%101 W · 89 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc4e…c150backed Team Falcons80c49.4$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8816856%94 W · 74 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.