TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Falconsof 3DMAX, Team Falcons
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$528,782
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$496,493

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $528,782 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 277 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb8e4…2daebacked 3DMAX0c90,700$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.812736.2%46 W · 81 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-20.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed 3DMAX16c59,306$9,489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,48923839.9%95 W · 143 L-11.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed 3DMAX16c27,954$4,453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,453.4667041.8%280 W · 390 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked 3DMAX16c14,812$2,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,369.915,02855%2,763 W · 2,265 L+112.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9819…4951backed 3DMAX1c9,957$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.74825%2 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-39.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbed2…d00bbacked 3DMAX6c9,442$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611.855750.9%29 W · 28 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed Team Falcons74c8,534$6,326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,208.0939248.7%191 W · 201 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team Falcons73c8,150$5,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,210.123,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8101…e7bebacked Team Falcons72c7,256$5,244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,012.07955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+29.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Team Falcons78c6,950$5,421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,529.6249646.6%231 W · 265 L+1.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3aa…1485backed 3DMAX16c6,160$986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$985.65848.3%28 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa69d…509bbacked Team Falcons73c5,916$4,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,600.9619757.4%113 W · 84 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc94f…ce94backed 3DMAX5c5,518$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.283141.9%13 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x410d…d831backed 3DMAX14c5,492$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$776.553930.8%12 W · 27 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Team Falcons72c4,793$3,465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,328.111,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x16bc…decabacked 3DMAX31c4,727$1,488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,48819229.2%56 W · 136 L-12.0wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-28.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked 3DMAX28c4,497$1,259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,259.291,00752.4%528 W · 479 L+27.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked 3DMAX23c4,118$964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$964.32,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked 3DMAX15c4,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.9728538.2%109 W · 176 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed 3DMAX36c3,768$1,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,370.195,26231.3%1,647 W · 3,615 L-381.6wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed 3DMAX10c3,497$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.531,60646.8%752 W · 854 L-27.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4108…9e22backed 3DMAX16c3,419$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.9711940.3%48 W · 71 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf79a…56c2backed 3DMAX6c3,066$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.641030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-49.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Team Falcons59c3,032$1,787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,244.8488746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc5…d1a4backed 3DMAX16c3,031$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.925648.2%27 W · 29 L+7.2wins+0.13per pick35cpaid+24.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed 3DMAX26c2,992$789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788.791,40833.7%475 W · 933 L+43.0wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked 3DMAX33c2,983$992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991.9966446.4%308 W · 356 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b9b…44c3backed 3DMAX12c2,896$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.579540%38 W · 57 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed 3DMAX16c2,850$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.9932732.4%106 W · 221 L-0.5wins0.00per pick33cpaid+8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x598e…7336backed Team Falcons74c2,841$2,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$728.671560%9 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked 3DMAX16c2,819$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.061,62144.8%726 W · 895 L+3.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91fe…cfd7backed Team Falcons75c2,623$1,963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$660.135444.4%24 W · 30 L-5.1wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-14.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Falcons71c2,604$1,839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$764.637,89250.5%3,983 W · 3,909 L+182.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbf3…aa3abacked Team Falcons68c2,452$1,667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$784.3622949.8%114 W · 115 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed 3DMAX17c2,302$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.85,81037.8%2,196 W · 3,614 L+78.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f93…bffabacked Team Falcons74c2,200$1,637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.1378963.8%503 W · 286 L-2.5wins0.00per pick64cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x135f…528cbacked 3DMAX9c2,129$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.078232.9%27 W · 55 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xceed…f8eebacked 3DMAX15c2,065$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.7617853.9%96 W · 82 L+0.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffc7…2259backed 3DMAX19c2,035$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.35442.6%23 W · 31 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5471…a236backed 3DMAX31c1,999$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611.2125042.8%107 W · 143 L-9.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed 3DMAX25c1,993$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.0646843.4%203 W · 265 L-11.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b45…ac9fbacked 3DMAX31c1,975$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.5838942.4%165 W · 224 L-15.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked 3DMAX7c1,966$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.6264852%337 W · 311 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc914…c458backed 3DMAX31c1,825$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.69366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick31cpaid+122.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed 3DMAX28c1,719$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.866,46642.9%2,777 W · 3,689 L-78.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5eab…d552backed 3DMAX5c1,622$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.118624.2%45 W · 141 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-30.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x25ac…3e47backed 3DMAX18c1,616$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.168564.7%55 W · 30 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Falcons60c1,513$914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.261,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12b1…092ebacked Team Falcons68c1,433$981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.641643.8%7 W · 9 L-2.9wins-0.18per pick62cpaid-27.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x91a6…4c9ebacked 3DMAX40c1,376$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Team Falcons61c1,354$831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$523.791,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb5c…fe49backed 3DMAX28c1,321$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.6620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed 3DMAX16c1,263$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.0623949%117 W · 122 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcba0…97bfbacked 3DMAX3c1,250$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.347647.4%36 W · 40 L+6.5wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+44.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdfa5…01b3backed 3DMAX16c1,187$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.927145.1%32 W · 39 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26ac…a735backed 3DMAX16c1,163$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.1224429.5%72 W · 172 L-0.3wins0.00per pick30cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cbf…0eb4backed 3DMAX34c1,154$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.0737157.7%214 W · 157 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6bd…b05abacked 3DMAX23c1,094$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.119834.8%69 W · 129 L-11.9wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-21.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed 3DMAX31c1,080$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.3491743.7%401 W · 516 L-35.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xda7b…8857backed 3DMAX42c1,062$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.924555.6%25 W · 20 L+5.4wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+15.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Team Falcons66c1,039$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.0521351.2%109 W · 104 L-1.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed 3DMAX20c1,011$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.5985446.4%396 W · 458 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Team Falcons72c1,010$727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.674,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56ed…d9b5backed 3DMAX2c999.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x765f…4dc4backed 3DMAX5c999.96$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-40.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed 3DMAX15c999.94$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.9978639.4%310 W · 476 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf535…e984backed Team Falcons61c959.86$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.443775.7%28 W · 9 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+19.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x60bd…2469backed 3DMAX1c958.41$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.652412.5%3 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x731c…9819backed 3DMAX16c949.6$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.941330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+116.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c47…7a9fbacked 3DMAX16c949.6$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.9414137.6%53 W · 88 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5c1…7487backed 3DMAX26c938.21$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.7416732.9%55 W · 112 L-9.8wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-25.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x26a6…dedebacked 3DMAX21c912.05$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.51616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick40cpaid-60.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ca…3748backed 3DMAX16c857.95$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.8612450%62 W · 62 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4048…d4adbacked 3DMAX16c841.89$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.584820.8%10 W · 38 L-8.2wins-0.17per pick38cpaid-54.9%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x4031…c848backed 3DMAX7c809.31$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6511135.1%39 W · 72 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x53e6…6168backed 3DMAX13c800$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f25…51f3backed Team Falcons72c795.94$573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.963966.7%26 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed52…2dbdbacked 3DMAX22c790.5$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.6913553.3%72 W · 63 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed 3DMAX17c728.82$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.242,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xd4fa…4a86backed 3DMAX5c716.79$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.746119.7%12 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66ba…621fbacked 3DMAX15c700$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10519043.7%83 W · 107 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2668…9555backed 3DMAX4c620.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.326518.5%12 W · 53 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick22cpaid+18.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd936…8318backed 3DMAX37c616.14$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.972425%6 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-24.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked Team Falcons73c601.14$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.211,15448.3%557 W · 597 L+4.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked 3DMAX32c600$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.52,60352.6%1,370 W · 1,233 L+97.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ca1…3378backed 3DMAX29c599.07$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.7330%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2d1…4242backed 3DMAX16c593.5$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.962937.9%11 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f6d…3070backed 3DMAX15c590.99$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.7516829.2%49 W · 119 L-14.4wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-41.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe189…13fbbacked 3DMAX16c584.95$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.59742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-45%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2361…254abacked 3DMAX33c555.86$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.2650%3 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x102b…a7acbacked 3DMAX7c539.54$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.774619.6%9 W · 37 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-26.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed 3DMAX15c538$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.361,56729.8%467 W · 1,100 L-86.0wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-39%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2381…ebe4backed 3DMAX16c534.15$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.46633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-21%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d1f…a252backed 3DMAX16c519.58$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.5315033.3%50 W · 100 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked 3DMAX6c500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3014820.3%30 W · 118 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-28.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcaa2…40a3backed Team Falcons67c500$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.51338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-28.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb70c…41d5backed 3DMAX16c500$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8034235.4%121 W · 221 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x056b…e7a4backed Team Falcons72c491.6$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.651963.2%12 W · 7 L+3.5wins+0.18per pick45cpaid+30.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4b22…8cd6backed 3DMAX16c489.04$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.25333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Team Falcons66c479.98$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.791,76859.2%1,047 W · 721 L+105.5wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.