Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Kevin Hern be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oklahoma?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3cb2859934ee2fde166693fb9e89f22bdc0316c00dd5abc85e7ee0a53c9b071
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,729
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,396
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,729 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c14…0869backed Yes | 62c | 1,500$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.06 | 107 | 40.2%43 W · 64 L | +8.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 1c | 770.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 147 | 29.9%44 W · 103 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 5c | 536$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 182 | 3.8%7 W · 175 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked No | 6c | 496.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 104 | 1%1 W · 103 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed No | 37c | 340$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.8 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed No | 24c | 301$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.03 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 37c | 298.48$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.85 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 37c | 265$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.48 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 183 | 10.4%19 W · 164 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 17c | 199.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.62 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x438c…481abacked No | 28c | 187.25$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 13c | 180.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x899c…d868backed No | 38c | 170$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 15c | 168.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked No | 8c | 164.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -7.0wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked No | 39c | 150$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7832…ca08backed No | 10c | 145.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0327…5e15backed No | 38c | 120$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.73 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce6…16a3backed No | 10c | 110.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe356…63bcbacked No | 10c | 110.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 16c | 105$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 121 | 50.4%61 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfac2…f35fbacked Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 17c | 95.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 38c | 92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x662b…eb47backed No | 32c | 78.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb376…3ecebacked No | 40c | 70$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 35c | 65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 124 | 40.3%50 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 39c | 64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fa20backed No | 24c | 62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -5.0wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 25c | 54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 90 | 10%9 W · 81 L | -20.0wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c5cebacked Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2773…045cbacked No | 29c | 47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ae…be02backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -76%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb98a…0550backed Yes | 73c | 38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d12…4fc0backed Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 62cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf808…6e99backed Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d0b…5f73backed Yes | 60c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5be4…3128backed Yes | 72c | 21.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +104.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a19…8f5bbacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x364f…562cbacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kevin Hern be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oklahoma?this page
- Will Markwayne Mullin be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oklahoma?No won
- Will Stephanie Bice be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oklahoma?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.