Tennis · resolved market
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mark Lajal vs Luka Pavlovic
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3dcdbfe3a300d3742e3b05f1f3d3c5f8778e6025d24b93d280309bb964a2dc0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Luka Pavlovicof Mark Lajal, Luka Pavlovic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,807
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,562
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,807 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Mark Lajal | 28c | 1,616$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.6 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…a6a2backed Luka Pavlovic | 74c | 1,400$1,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.66 | 3,068 | 57.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L | +173.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Luka Pavlovic | 72c | 951.13$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.69 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Mark Lajal | 25c | 889.23$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.32 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d47…64eebacked Luka Pavlovic | 27c | 700$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Luka Pavlovic | 76c | 656.89$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.03 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Mark Lajal | 62c | 450.36$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.44 | 4,533 | 67.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L | +306.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a18…61a0backed Mark Lajal | 75c | 439.13$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | +27.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Mark Lajal | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Luka Pavlovic | 24c | 394.74$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Mark Lajal | 63c | 333.14$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.28 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Mark Lajal | 36c | 332.67$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.27 | 1,228 | 23.1%284 W · 944 L | -164.0wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -47%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x67be…6e09backed Mark Lajal | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 489 | 41.1%201 W · 288 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb91…dd87backed Mark Lajal | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -52%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1a…e943backed Luka Pavlovic | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.78 | 215 | 24.7%53 W · 162 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Mark Lajal | 9c | 259.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 2,766 | 47.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Mark Lajal | 35c | 226.06$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.19 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Mark Lajal | 63c | 200$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Mark Lajal | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 1,626 | 52.7%857 W · 769 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Mark Lajal | 74c | 192.31$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.31 | 3,256 | 48.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L | -53.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Luka Pavlovic | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.31 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2c…cd4ebacked Luka Pavlovic | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 249 | 45.4%113 W · 136 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Luka Pavlovic | 44c | 178.49$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.36 | 1,831 | 53%971 W · 860 L | -45.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4db8…9751backed Luka Pavlovic | 29c | 173.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.28 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Mark Lajal | 17c | 161.62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab3…3044backed Luka Pavlovic | 37c | 159$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.17 | 301 | 32.9%99 W · 202 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa599…5230backed Mark Lajal | 9c | 158.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf474…2775backed Mark Lajal | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -15.6wins | -0.46per pick | 55cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 21-0.26 edge/pick |
| 0xe06a…ca30backed Luka Pavlovic | 29c | 146.11$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.62 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x304a…05ecbacked Mark Lajal | 16c | 128.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 140 | 31.4%44 W · 96 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c26…d474backed Mark Lajal | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 889 | 35.2%313 W · 576 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a99…d29fbacked Mark Lajal | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 306 | 42.2%129 W · 177 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad5…ccdebacked Luka Pavlovic | 27c | 117.19$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.55 | 550 | 32.7%180 W · 370 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…f29bbacked Luka Pavlovic | 29c | 115.72$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.72 | 125 | 62.4%78 W · 47 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Luka Pavlovic | 28c | 100.22$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.16 | 508 | 45.9%233 W · 275 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89ab…14e7backed Luka Pavlovic | 27c | 99.97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.98 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…b694backed Mark Lajal | 19c | 98.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 1,429 | 44.2%631 W · 798 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Mark Lajal | 45c | 91$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 846 | 40%338 W · 508 L | -22.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Mark Lajal | 72c | 85$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 3,901 | 50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Luka Pavlovic | 26c | 81.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Mark Lajal | 16c | 69.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf970…f7f6backed Luka Pavlovic | 29c | 69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 2,485 | 35.9%893 W · 1,592 L | -28.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde2f…ad33backed Mark Lajal | 25c | 69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 253 | 36.4%92 W · 161 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Luka Pavlovic | 41c | 61.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.36 | 1,021 | 49.8%508 W · 513 L | +42.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa461…878abacked Mark Lajal | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba3…1aafbacked Mark Lajal | 73c | 52.05$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 74 | 32.4%24 W · 50 L | -7.2wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2725…e7d1backed Mark Lajal | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 439 | 52.4%230 W · 209 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Mark Lajal | 56c | 48.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 625 | 49.6%310 W · 315 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0a…ea32backed Mark Lajal | 27c | 47.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 436 | 18.3%80 W · 356 L | -21.4wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Luka Pavlovic | 28c | 45.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.72 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x561d…4134backed Mark Lajal | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 449 | 49.4%222 W · 227 L | +23.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8b…5e62backed Luka Pavlovic | 46c | 43.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 239 | 32.6%78 W · 161 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Luka Pavlovic | 61c | 43.46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0195…9f64backed Mark Lajal | 72c | 41.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 257 | 68.9%177 W · 80 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Luka Pavlovic | 28c | 40.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…f655backed Luka Pavlovic | 56c | 39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 592 | 53.5%317 W · 275 L | +22.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…33c9backed Mark Lajal | 73c | 34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 1,300 | 36.9%480 W · 820 L | -34.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Mark Lajal | 71c | 33.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 1,541 | 49.2%758 W · 783 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…fe2fbacked Mark Lajal | 42c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 627 | 27.3%171 W · 456 L | -15.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed Mark Lajal | 70c | 28.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 255 | 50.6%129 W · 126 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8367…7eaebacked Mark Lajal | 40c | 25.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -6.6wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Mark Lajal | 71c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Mark Lajal | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 578 | 45.7%264 W · 314 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…1ec1backed Luka Pavlovic | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1,853 | 57.7%1,069 W · 784 L | +106.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2176…bc30backed Mark Lajal | 73c | 17.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36d9…c3cabacked Mark Lajal | 69c | 16.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 222 | 46.8%104 W · 118 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mark Lajal vs Luka Pavlovicthis page
- Set Handicap: Lajal (-1.5) vs Pavlovic (+1.5)Pavlovic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.