Premier League · resolved market
Manchester City FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe58bf2622bafce2df6ce9ffdf71e394287093d74f980d91ef55cc6d0f1947eda
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,303
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,320
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,303 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 11c | 18,895$2,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,079.51 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee4…9f0cbacked Under | 80c | 1,250$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 77cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 28c | 892$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.76 | 131 | 32.1%42 W · 89 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 20c | 833.42$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.78 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 78c | 717.15$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.56 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2668…2c56backed Over | 25c | 709.16$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.29 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b89…baa4backed Over | 21c | 479.52$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 25c | 398$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 239 | 26.4%63 W · 176 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Over | 22c | 353$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.66 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 71c | 338.38$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.13 | 373 | 42.6%159 W · 214 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabd6…ca90backed Under | 77c | 333$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.59 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Under | 76c | 263.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…c097backed Over | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f03…766dbacked Over | 21c | 223.81$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +6.0wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd859…38c5backed Over | 17c | 220$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4f…0019backed Over | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22ad…c3c9backed Over | 5c | 190.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 72c | 139.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.03 | 1,283 | 48%616 W · 667 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5995…3385backed Over | 8c | 135.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Under | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 321 | 64.5%207 W · 114 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 68c | 124.77$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.29 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…d05ebacked Over | 38c | 105.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -4.5wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f03…dc32backed Over | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0605…1634backed Under | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 76cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1783…7180backed Over | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…1fb3backed Over | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Under | 72c | 69.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 130 | 45.4%59 W · 71 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa356…b3f8backed Under | 80c | 62.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00fa…9af5backed Under | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 95 | 61.1%58 W · 37 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 35c | 57.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Over | 28c | 56.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 114 | 60.5%69 W · 45 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 34c | 34.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 198 | 53%105 W · 93 L | +12.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e6…a6edbacked Under | 70c | 28.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Under | 73c | 27.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f8…5bf4backed Over | 55c | 26.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x696b…8181backed Under | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…f545backed Under | 76c | 23.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 121 | 59.5%72 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0247…bb07backed Under | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc30…8780backed Under | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Manchester City FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Manchester City FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Manchester City FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Manchester City FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Manchester City FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)Wolverhampton Wanderers FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.