Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b19cd774eef0823293a1091de6c479e1bc573d187c4e7e0d374a4457fe9eaed

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Wolverhampton Wanderers FCof Manchester City FC, Wolverhampton Wanderers FC
Resolved: Jan 24, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $30,987
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $31,737

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,987 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Premier League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	64c	8,285$5,326 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,958.75	6,047	45.9%2,776 W · 3,271 L	-21.5wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ebb…061abacked Manchester City FC	30c	6,760$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	135	52.6%71 W · 64 L	-5.8wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	70c	1,307$915 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$392.14	1,272	50.4%641 W · 631 L	-53.9wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Manchester City FC	24c	1,089$262 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$262.41	131	32.1%42 W · 89 L	+3.6wins	+0.03per pick	29cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	69c	1,030$709 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$321.57	2,661	45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L	-11.1wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9b05…e6c2backed Manchester City FC	35c	1,000$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-3.3wins	-0.47per pick	62cpaid	-79.9%equal weight	38-0.10 edge/pick
0xcd43…88d7backed Manchester City FC	29c	862.07$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	38	23.7%9 W · 29 L	+1.6wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+34.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeffd…5a86backed Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	71c	699.97$497 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$202.99	92	56.5%52 W · 40 L	+5.0wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x35d3…e506backed Manchester City FC	59c	677.97$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	350	28.9%101 W · 249 L	-19.2wins	-0.05per pick	34cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	70c	630.77$442 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$189.23	524	54.2%284 W · 240 L	+14.4wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	58c	615.48$357 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$258.14	4,696	41.7%1,957 W · 2,739 L	+21.8wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xe2bb…ea55backed Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	64c	418.25$268 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$150.57	108	38.9%42 W · 66 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xea93…d9bdbacked Manchester City FC	45c	400$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8e28…c195backed Manchester City FC	29c	344.83$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+1.3wins	+0.19per pick	38cpaid	+61.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2623…e65abacked Manchester City FC	30c	333.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	70c	320$224 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96	379	58%220 W · 159 L	+24.9wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Manchester City FC	37c	315$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.07	1,212	41.7%505 W · 707 L	-1.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Manchester City FC	28c	304.06$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.2	166	34.9%58 W · 108 L	-12.3wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Manchester City FC	36c	300$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	1,283	48%616 W · 667 L	-5.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xd0f1…cc6abacked Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	68c	300$204 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.32per pick	68cpaid	+47.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74e0…af4bbacked Manchester City FC	30c	269.13$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.74	194	26.3%51 W · 143 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	24cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1677…1126backed Manchester City FC	28c	259$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.52	420	48.6%204 W · 216 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa47f…dfb1backed Manchester City FC	39c	256.41$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	53	35.8%19 W · 34 L	+4.9wins	+0.09per pick	27cpaid	+59.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x06a9…1a49backed Manchester City FC	44c	227.27$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	377	40.3%152 W · 225 L	-16.5wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x227c…ee3fbacked Manchester City FC	29c	216.62$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.82	110	47.3%52 W · 58 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Manchester City FC	31c	210.3$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.74	2,212	49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L	-9.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x12fe…38cfbacked Manchester City FC	28c	200$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	440	36.8%162 W · 278 L	+5.4wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	70c	175.49$123 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.65	257	52.1%134 W · 123 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97f2…d84fbacked Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	69c	167.33$115 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.96	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.23per pick	52cpaid	+43.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x935b…a5cebacked Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	71c	140.85$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.85	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.11per pick	60cpaid	+38%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb230…17ebbacked Manchester City FC	29c	137.93$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	-1.5wins	-0.07per pick	34cpaid	-26.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xadd4…b42bbacked Manchester City FC	30c	133.33$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	46	47.8%22 W · 24 L	-3.6wins	-0.08per pick	56cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9006…385abacked Manchester City FC	29c	126.97$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.82	54	59.3%32 W · 22 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	61cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bdf…56f5backed Manchester City FC	50c	120$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	60	41.7%25 W · 35 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7f02…12f5backed Manchester City FC	48c	114.58$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	105	47.6%50 W · 55 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0ccc…dbcdbacked Manchester City FC	31c	101$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.31	101	24.8%25 W · 76 L	-12.0wins	-0.12per pick	37cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2977…a4dfbacked Manchester City FC	32c	100$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.3wins	-0.21per pick	38cpaid	-77.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xad48…4797backed Manchester City FC	30c	100$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-2.3wins	-0.25per pick	48cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd2a2…004abacked Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	69c	97.68$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.28	283	59.4%168 W · 115 L	+16.6wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Manchester City FC	31c	88$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.28	1,264	33.7%426 W · 838 L	+13.1wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	71c	84.49$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.5	277	48.7%135 W · 142 L	+5.9wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	66c	82.56$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.07	212	53.8%114 W · 98 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa204…e66fbacked Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	70c	80$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24	276	61.6%170 W · 106 L	+22.8wins	+0.08per pick	53cpaid	+19.8%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xca61…f06abacked Manchester City FC	29c	70$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.3	72	52.8%38 W · 34 L	+4.1wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+12.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4683…1218backed Manchester City FC	30c	66.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.12per pick	55cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9013…e7e0backed Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	64c	62.5$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.5	79	31.6%25 W · 54 L	-4.8wins	-0.06per pick	38cpaid	-27.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc210…39fcbacked Manchester City FC	29c	62.42$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.05	193	57.5%111 W · 82 L	+16.3wins	+0.08per pick	49cpaid	+16.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf99a…5487backed Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	70c	60$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18	255	58.8%150 W · 105 L	+11.5wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Manchester City FC	32c	57.24$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.41	1,006	46.6%469 W · 537 L	-20.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fa9…259ebacked Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	65c	53.85$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.85	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-1.0wins	-0.09per pick	45cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ba1…1703backed Manchester City FC	29c	51.72$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	-4.2wins	-0.18per pick	35cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1129…60eebacked Manchester City FC	29c	51.69$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.99	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf646…00c1backed Manchester City FC	37c	51.32$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.99	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9f5…8797backed Manchester City FC	60c	50$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	79	53.2%42 W · 37 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad62…c7dfbacked Manchester City FC	34c	44.09$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.99	20	55%11 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2e7d…eedcbacked Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	71c	42.21$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.24	82	42.7%35 W · 47 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Manchester City FC	36c	40.16$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.46	228	34.2%78 W · 150 L	+4.4wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75cd…61a6backed Manchester City FC	30c	38.89$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.67	32	43.8%14 W · 18 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-17%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd85…6a32backed Manchester City FC	31c	35.76$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.18	80	38.8%31 W · 49 L	-7.2wins	-0.09per pick	48cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xeee4…1cefbacked Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	73c	34.74$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.38	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef51…c0d3backed Manchester City FC	36c	31.33$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.21	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.21per pick	46cpaid	-58.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x157a…e4a3backed Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	65c	30.66$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.66	102	55.9%57 W · 45 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	58cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b72…5b75backed Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	64c	30$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.8	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.10per pick	65cpaid	+16%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c12…1f27backed Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	71c	30$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.7	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.17per pick	60cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ee0…3bd5backed Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	64c	26$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.36	5	60%3 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	63cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	69c	25.23$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.82	210	56.7%119 W · 91 L	+6.3wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b7…b46fbacked Manchester City FC	40c	25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	55c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.92	282	46.1%130 W · 152 L	-12.2wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7cba…c616backed Manchester City FC	60c	20$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	93	59.1%55 W · 38 L	-4.2wins	-0.04per pick	64cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6271…4ac6backed Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	61c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.8	22	50%11 W · 11 L	-1.8wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6630…703cbacked Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	73c	14$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.78	26	53.8%14 W · 12 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)this page
Manchester City FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
Manchester City FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: O/U 1.5Over won
Manchester City FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: O/U 2.5Under won
Manchester City FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: O/U 3.5Under won
Manchester City FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: O/U 4.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event