Lol · resolved market
LoL: Eintracht Frankfurt vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5b588fcd41d4d79aae856ed6afc408ce5750a8e172cbf05409b07210bba5594
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Eintracht Spandauof Eintracht Frankfurt, Eintracht Spandau
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,811
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,819
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,811 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 42c | 5,175$2,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,182.49 | 1,940 | 48.1%934 W · 1,006 L | +22.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf163…ca34backed Eintracht Spandau | 51c | 3,879$1,971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,908.24 | 1,477 | 48.3%713 W · 764 L | +45.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 5c | 1,188$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.38 | 1,517 | 3.3%50 W · 1,467 L | -53.9wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…f4e0backed Eintracht Spandau | 45c | 1,138$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.24 | 642 | 47.4%304 W · 338 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f6c…620bbacked Eintracht Spandau | 79c | 630.03$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.03 | 325 | 66.5%216 W · 109 L | +26.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 55c | 600$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 2,495 | 47.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L | -32.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…186dbacked Eintracht Spandau | 75c | 530$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.5 | 221 | 42.5%94 W · 127 L | -13.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 53c | 529.81$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.8 | 2,202 | 33.3%733 W · 1,469 L | -72.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f03…b1bebacked Eintracht Frankfurt | 25c | 510$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 1,132 | 52.5%594 W · 538 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Eintracht Spandau | 76c | 498.17$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.56 | 160 | 58.8%94 W · 66 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Eintracht Spandau | 44c | 443.14$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.81 | 282 | 53.5%151 W · 131 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x109b…935fbacked Eintracht Spandau | 69c | 434.09$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.09 | 282 | 61%172 W · 110 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 25c | 409.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.48 | 3,131 | 33.8%1,058 W · 2,073 L | -150.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb11…66cbbacked Eintracht Spandau | 72c | 393.6$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.16 | 1,019 | 55.8%569 W · 450 L | +22.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfad…fa05backed Eintracht Spandau | 78c | 384.87$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.87 | 1,218 | 58.1%708 W · 510 L | +44.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ef…4a40backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 48c | 350$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 38c | 350$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.45 | 1,599 | 46.8%748 W · 851 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…c8b6backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 30c | 335.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x473f…9892backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 46c | 327.84$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 436 | 42.4%185 W · 251 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…463dbacked Eintracht Frankfurt | 51c | 313.24$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 501 | 58.3%292 W · 209 L | -17.7wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96f1…b6d8backed Eintracht Spandau | 70c | 299.98$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.99 | 386 | 59.8%231 W · 155 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dba…6929backed Eintracht Spandau | 65c | 274.4$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.04 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -6.6wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -42%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ed…2a85backed Eintracht Spandau | 72c | 250$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 867 | 58.1%504 W · 363 L | +16.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 30c | 249.95$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.26 | 1,310 | 37.3%489 W · 821 L | -86.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Eintracht Frankfurt | 13c | 248$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 1,464 | 43.4%636 W · 828 L | -32.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 28c | 219.72$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.52 | 524 | 38.9%204 W · 320 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Eintracht Spandau | 56c | 208.34$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.73 | 1,239 | 37.3%462 W · 777 L | -39.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Eintracht Spandau | 36c | 206.56$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.52 | 194 | 37.6%73 W · 121 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…13e5backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 232 | 40.5%94 W · 138 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c67…9896backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 506 | 46%233 W · 273 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Eintracht Frankfurt | 16c | 193.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 2,679 | 35.7%957 W · 1,722 L | -153.5wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…a770backed Eintracht Spandau | 79c | 172.57$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.73 | 1,372 | 48.6%667 W · 705 L | +57.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Eintracht Spandau | 53c | 155.92$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.38 | 1,576 | 48.4%763 W · 813 L | +17.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…04ebbacked Eintracht Spandau | 61c | 136.65$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.29 | 486 | 52.1%253 W · 233 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x413d…d704backed Eintracht Spandau | 77c | 132.41$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.41 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce5…a07fbacked Eintracht Frankfurt | 61c | 127$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.83 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | +10.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +30%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Eintracht Spandau | 72c | 124.05$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.6 | 1,258 | 38.6%485 W · 773 L | -61.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…4500backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 27c | 122.78$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 127 | 27.6%35 W · 92 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 27c | 118.4$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 498 | 47.2%235 W · 263 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Eintracht Frankfurt | 32c | 110.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,368 | 37.7%516 W · 852 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c1…3e0bbacked Eintracht Spandau | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 636 | 46.9%298 W · 338 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x337e…9b4ebacked Eintracht Frankfurt | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 325 | 54.8%178 W · 147 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fa…ac8fbacked Eintracht Spandau | 62c | 96.77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.77 | 634 | 48.1%305 W · 329 L | +13.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92a9…0e78backed Eintracht Spandau | 33c | 90$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.4 | 383 | 42.8%164 W · 219 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Eintracht Frankfurt | 48c | 89.34$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 2,311 | 39.4%910 W · 1,401 L | -83.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Eintracht Frankfurt | 43c | 88.11$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 1,899 | 37.1%705 W · 1,194 L | -113.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36d7…dacfbacked Eintracht Spandau | 69c | 84.46$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 289 | 65.1%188 W · 101 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Eintracht Spandau | 62c | 82.63$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 732 | 37.7%276 W · 456 L | -51.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d64…527ebacked Eintracht Frankfurt | 35c | 82.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 625 | 58.7%367 W · 258 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 14c | 77.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,079 | 26%281 W · 798 L | -99.0wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2761…4d95backed Eintracht Spandau | 48c | 74.45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.71 | 507 | 49.7%252 W · 255 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Eintracht Frankfurt | 41c | 71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 1,671 | 57.9%968 W · 703 L | +70.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac7b…7cebbacked Eintracht Spandau | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f08…e919backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 19c | 69.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 476 | 30.7%146 W · 330 L | -13.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 54c | 66.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 173 | 49.7%86 W · 87 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Eintracht Spandau | 68c | 62$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 200 | 36.5%73 W · 127 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 17c | 61.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 618 | 49.8%308 W · 310 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e88…9b64backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 48c | 58.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1791…3e87backed Eintracht Spandau | 60c | 52.88$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 326 | 50%163 W · 163 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d33…1192backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 25c | 50.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 122 | 41.8%51 W · 71 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,156 | 45.1%521 W · 635 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked Eintracht Frankfurt | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 647 | 49.9%323 W · 324 L | -24.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Eintracht Spandau | 53c | 45.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 1,270 | 57%724 W · 546 L | +45.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Eintracht Frankfurt | 30c | 36.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 229 | 55.5%127 W · 102 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x115a…98e1backed Eintracht Spandau | 74c | 35.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 167 | 62.3%104 W · 63 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3561…1bfebacked Eintracht Spandau | 55c | 34.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 251 | 65.7%165 W · 86 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 33c | 33.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 204 | 39.2%80 W · 124 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10a4…689bbacked Eintracht Spandau | 32c | 31.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 38c | 31.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 923 | 42.7%394 W · 529 L | -16.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c8…e340backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 43c | 31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 572 | 22.7%130 W · 442 L | -48.9wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed Eintracht Spandau | 75c | 28.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 237 | 48.5%115 W · 122 L | -15.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Eintracht Spandau | 69c | 27.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 1,170 | 66.2%774 W · 396 L | +69.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…ced8backed Eintracht Spandau | 76c | 24.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 323 | 71.2%230 W · 93 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…fc02backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 49c | 21.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 505 | 49.3%249 W · 256 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Eintracht Spandau | 50c | 19.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 257 | 37%95 W · 162 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Eintracht Spandau | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 182 | 63.7%116 W · 66 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LoL: Eintracht Frankfurt vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Game Handicap: ES (-1.5) vs Eintracht Frankfurt (+1.5)Eintracht Spandau won
- LoL: Eintracht Frankfurt vs Eintracht Spandau (BO3) - Prime League 1st Division Group BEintracht Spandau won
- LoL: Eintracht Frankfurt vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 WinnerEintracht Spandau won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.