TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Granby: Murphy Cassone vs Arthur Gea

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Arthur Geaof Murphy Cassone, Arthur Gea
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$119,880
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$140,347

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $119,880 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x32b4…8b21backed Murphy Cassone9c33,988$3,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,075.533,60542.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L-43.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Murphy Cassone8c9,356$712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711.68,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xacf8…e791backed Murphy Cassone33c5,570$1,823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,823.4833037.3%123 W · 207 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Murphy Cassone27c1,910$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.8425134.3%86 W · 165 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-17.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc0f…a5fcbacked Murphy Cassone12c1,667$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2007338.4%28 W · 45 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Murphy Cassone2c1,273$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4311,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Murphy Cassone13c1,107$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.594,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Arthur Gea67c740.47$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.364,92138.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L-20.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7e5…9256backed Murphy Cassone17c711.8$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.8125448.4%123 W · 131 L+11.7wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Murphy Cassone4c711.44$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.753,66145.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L-8.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed Murphy Cassone30c666$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.82,17436.9%802 W · 1,372 L+39.5wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed Murphy Cassone33c599.99$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.627,04939.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L-20.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecdb…c4c7backed Murphy Cassone36c555.5$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.9855941.3%231 W · 328 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Arthur Gea66c522$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.247,72447.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L+41.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Arthur Gea66c462$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.31,36543.3%591 W · 774 L-26.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6485…a265backed Arthur Gea78c456.36$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.222,28152%1,187 W · 1,094 L+82.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd034…eecebacked Murphy Cassone33c454.03$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.182,73534%931 W · 1,804 L-13.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-2.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Murphy Cassone7c442.33$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.144,70349.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L+166.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8100…1d33backed Murphy Cassone6c416.67$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2511765%76 W · 41 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+0.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed Murphy Cassone9c376.97$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6992145.2%416 W · 505 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked Arthur Gea64c337.75$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.5961152.2%319 W · 292 L-11.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Murphy Cassone36c299.98$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.993,87135%1,353 W · 2,518 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2180…df40backed Murphy Cassone32c295.35$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.737048.6%34 W · 36 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9086…4d46backed Arthur Gea69c289.86$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.861,84148.5%892 W · 949 L-32.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4711…61b3backed Arthur Gea80c279.3$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.867374%54 W · 19 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick69cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Murphy Cassone7c264.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.552,04946.8%958 W · 1,091 L+19.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f1d…2fb6backed Murphy Cassone31c263.99$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.841,55642.4%660 W · 896 L+20.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a80…d472backed Arthur Gea64c234.53$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.531,18652.4%622 W · 564 L+28.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b3…145dbacked Arthur Gea66c189.39$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.3991754%495 W · 422 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ef9…11b4backed Arthur Gea69c145$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4516467.7%111 W · 53 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a1e…f992backed Murphy Cassone23c143.48$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3365434.9%228 W · 426 L-28.0wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd6f…e043backed Arthur Gea71c136.62$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.628042.5%34 W · 46 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Murphy Cassone26c135$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.11,62652.7%857 W · 769 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61f1…7aefbacked Arthur Gea65c116.4$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.7427653.6%148 W · 128 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3453…8524backed Arthur Gea65c116.4$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.7427254.4%148 W · 124 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Murphy Cassone35c114.37$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405,26128.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L-19.4wins0.00per pick29cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d09…7fd6backed Murphy Cassone14c107.14$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510627.4%29 W · 77 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x820d…2236backed Murphy Cassone14c107.14$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154615.2%7 W · 39 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e25…db26backed Arthur Gea72c106.94$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.9482560.5%499 W · 326 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Murphy Cassone15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Arthur Gea68c99.99$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3236349.9%181 W · 182 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x012d…3857backed Arthur Gea69c98.6$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.14966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Murphy Cassone30c95$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.53,87445.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L-39.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cb0…c615backed Murphy Cassone16c80$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.78456%47 W · 37 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0677…2a28backed Arthur Gea64c76.56$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5610135.6%36 W · 65 L-11.3wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-31%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Arthur Gea68c71.53$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.645,35056.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L+228.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed Murphy Cassone31c70$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.71,88235.5%669 W · 1,213 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x747f…f2d7backed Arthur Gea64c67.73$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.3890152.3%471 W · 430 L-2.6wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bf9…8292backed Arthur Gea64c67.03$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.1358857.7%339 W · 249 L+20.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd96…11a3backed Arthur Gea65c66.25$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.252,27458%1,318 W · 956 L-10.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Murphy Cassone25c66$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.56,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x18a7…206cbacked Murphy Cassone35c60$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.785637.7%323 W · 533 L+7.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e0b…1435backed Murphy Cassone32c60$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.239035.9%140 W · 250 L-61.1wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-43.1%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0x26fb…67b8backed Arthur Gea69c59.1$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.3265157.1%372 W · 279 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48e4…db33backed Arthur Gea68c57.43$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4318968.8%130 W · 59 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3aca…5d2bbacked Arthur Gea67c53.73$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.739357%53 W · 40 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Arthur Gea71c53.23$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.332,04453.8%1,100 W · 944 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cba…b694backed Murphy Cassone19c53.17$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.061,42944.2%631 W · 798 L-23.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8fc…b543backed Murphy Cassone31c51.67$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0224546.9%115 W · 130 L-8.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9f1…23eebacked Murphy Cassone30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154339.5%17 W · 26 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ce0…9d0bbacked Arthur Gea74c47.3$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.324159.3%143 W · 98 L-0.7wins0.00per pick60cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2892…e9d7backed Murphy Cassone31c37.5$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6341045.1%185 W · 225 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked Arthur Gea66c34.65$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7873048.8%356 W · 374 L-18.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a3d…f2ffbacked Murphy Cassone32c34.38$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1129237.3%109 W · 183 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f40…16c7backed Arthur Gea64c33$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.8811163.1%70 W · 41 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3404…10d2backed Murphy Cassone35c31.54$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0448245.6%220 W · 262 L-11.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9a4…3926backed Arthur Gea64c31.25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2559366.8%396 W · 197 L-0.6wins0.00per pick67cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Arthur Gea65c29.45$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.312,56163%1,613 W · 948 L-10.2wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5151…645cbacked Arthur Gea68c29.4$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.417549.3%37 W · 38 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d10…780bbacked Arthur Gea66c22.73$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.731,02554%554 W · 471 L+37.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x125a…df71backed Arthur Gea64c22.62$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.141,02149.8%508 W · 513 L+42.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4488…05efbacked Arthur Gea64c15.63$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.632552%13 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc512…7fdfbacked Arthur Gea71c14.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.357864.1%50 W · 28 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick70cpaid-9.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc62f…1781backed Arthur Gea71c14.43$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.1826664.7%172 W · 94 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.