Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe698906e2d854a0cdc87549b9f4b94f78d6e7842822b9ffa07348572a991c33b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,768
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,174
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,768 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 177 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 37c | 4,599$1,682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,916.38 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 61c | 1,361$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.02 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 1,242$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.53 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fd…d854backed No | 63c | 826.7$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 41c | 728.36$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.73 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x771a…6be6backed No | 63c | 710.33$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 59c | 701.9$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.78 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 80c | 664.16$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.25 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 57c | 644.89$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.25 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 57c | 637.69$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.06 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 37c | 632.09$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.54 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 63c | 503$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.89 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 33c | 502.98$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.55 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 63c | 500$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 488.95$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.44 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 39c | 454.64$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.29 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 45c | 448.43$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.24 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 40c | 415$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 51c | 407.18$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.43 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 64c | 364$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.96 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0948backed Yes | 67c | 341.24$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.8 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 60c | 334.6$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.55 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 26c | 332.75$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.77 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 41c | 329.1$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.17 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 70c | 305.47$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.7 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 42c | 300$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.05 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 49c | 294.31$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.42 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 8c | 272.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc9…d91cbacked Yes | 37c | 270.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.43 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 64c | 265$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.6 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 50c | 264.98$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.94 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…06d8backed Yes | 39c | 258.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.21 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…5961backed Yes | 72c | 240.03$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.03 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed No | 28c | 233.5$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.71 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 28c | 224.48$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.52 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 37c | 220.41$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.07 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 49c | 205.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.54 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 62c | 202.44$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.03 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe387…1eedbacked Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 60c | 187.91$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.23 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ee…4806backed Yes | 63c | 174.96$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.34 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3156…8f96backed Yes | 31c | 162.98$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.46 | 86 | 20.9%18 W · 68 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19ae…395cbacked No | 61c | 162.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.29 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ef…3c3abacked Yes | 62c | 155.74$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x863a…e428backed No | 71c | 154.41$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.09 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 61c | 153.54$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.64 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 33c | 151.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.42 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 35c | 146.69$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.47 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f0…8b09backed Yes | 60c | 141.51$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.09 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 66c | 139.88$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.52 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 65c | 137.7$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.05 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 35c | 133.61$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.43 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…5e20backed No | 57c | 128.47$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 30c | 127.11$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.58 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b5…35ebbacked No | 63c | 127$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 42c | 124.02$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.23 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 33c | 119.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.51 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 63c | 116.64$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 63c | 110$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 109.34$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.78 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed Yes | 43c | 106$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.42 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…3c43backed Yes | 38c | 103.87$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.4 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…9dc6backed Yes | 35c | 103.8$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.9 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +108%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 34c | 103.41$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.25 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f3…f816backed No | 62c | 102.61$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.64 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47fc…5ec3backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abe…f19fbacked Yes | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.78 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c60…5d2ebacked Yes | 62c | 91.43$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.54 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 16c | 87.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1786…a1e1backed No | 69c | 83.52$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe412…4356backed No | 67c | 82.3$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.98 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 52c | 80.53$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.38 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 37c | 75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 14c | 73.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 51c | 71.09$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 35c | 70.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.64 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 70c | 65.14$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 40c | 64.55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.58 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 74c | 64.32$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.92 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f57…04bcbacked Yes | 32c | 63.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.14 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 56c | 61.46$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…8665backed Yes | 38c | 60.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 42c | 59.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…b334backed Yes | 35c | 57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 53c | 56.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…35efbacked Yes | 36c | 56.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.32 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 58c | 56$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 36c | 55.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc5…b430backed Yes | 25c | 54.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.59 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 72c | 50.43$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.51 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…ea8fbacked Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or below on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.