TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: Team Heretics vs BBL Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
BBL Esportsof Team Heretics, BBL Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$515,958
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$565,882

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $515,958 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 373 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Team Heretics60c32,476$19,566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,565.7640945.7%187 W · 222 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1610…ae49backed BBL Esports32c31,348$9,942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,406.021650%8 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+43.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Team Heretics51c22,990$11,725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,724.736150.8%31 W · 30 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed BBL Esports49c21,694$10,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,063.9224145.2%109 W · 132 L-11.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked BBL Esports58c17,613$10,154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,458.3826650.8%135 W · 131 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x472b…5d5fbacked BBL Esports58c11,303$6,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,703.24650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed BBL Esports50c9,944$4,955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,988.8352155.5%289 W · 232 L-11.1wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7bf…7033backed Team Heretics51c6,666$3,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,399.66333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-41.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Team Heretics79c5,742$4,536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,536.183857.9%22 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked BBL Esports48c4,929$2,356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,573.7735142.5%149 W · 202 L-14.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x257e…ca61backed BBL Esports36c4,800$1,716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,084.4122344.4%99 W · 124 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4fd…748bbacked BBL Esports21c4,105$862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,242.761330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Heretics66c3,954$2,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,610.451,41751.3%727 W · 690 L+49.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeef6…cd4cbacked BBL Esports38c3,776$1,416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,359.998144.4%36 W · 45 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Team Heretics50c3,593$1,792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,792.1853159.1%314 W · 217 L+41.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed BBL Esports57c3,399$1,945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,453.9293148.1%448 W · 483 L-11.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Heretics54c3,350$1,799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,799.2668458.3%399 W · 285 L+56.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Team Heretics50c3,282$1,656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,655.7765559.4%389 W · 266 L+50.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6683…de6bbacked Team Heretics70c3,273$2,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,288.11850%4 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-27.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa113…bb53backed BBL Esports65c3,243$2,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,135.055058%29 W · 21 L+5.1wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+19.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x997c…51f3backed BBL Esports49c3,097$1,503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,594.037247.2%34 W · 38 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-14.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed Team Heretics55c2,885$1,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,589.943836.8%14 W · 24 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Team Heretics60c2,207$1,314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,314.4250944.6%227 W · 282 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-18.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Team Heretics45c2,199$993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992.7968949.5%341 W · 348 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x462d…ce9bbacked BBL Esports46c2,183$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,183.261127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.18per pick45cpaid-44.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed BBL Esports38c2,182$821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,360.681134.9%283 W · 528 L-60.9wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-34.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked BBL Esports39c2,048$804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,244.157338.4%28 W · 45 L-10.0wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-25.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4980…5709backed BBL Esports37c2,000$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,259.1132245.7%147 W · 175 L+52.2wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+40.7%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x35e7…24e8backed BBL Esports56c1,969$1,109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$859.87366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1603…428bbacked BBL Esports30c1,968$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,368.45250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+64%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1520…378fbacked Team Heretics79c1,952$1,542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,542.07944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf21d…2e9abacked Team Heretics64c1,909$1,223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,22326758.8%157 W · 110 L+18.8wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+16.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x568d…87d0backed Team Heretics53c1,868$986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$985.9210842.6%46 W · 62 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8660…93edbacked Team Heretics57c1,832$1,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,044.5217948.6%87 W · 92 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Team Heretics46c1,831$844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$844.4574642.8%319 W · 427 L-27.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked BBL Esports34c1,809$615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,194.1428743.2%124 W · 163 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed BBL Esports40c1,766$709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,056.6715038%57 W · 93 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01fa…cea7backed Team Heretics55c1,730$946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945.651030%3 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.25per pick55cpaid-48%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc564…e89dbacked BBL Esports38c1,683$647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,035.694751.1%24 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e64…89c3backed BBL Esports22c1,514$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,180.6410946.8%51 W · 58 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+15%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Heretics52c1,465$764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$764.341,74646.2%806 W · 940 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Team Heretics50c1,455$724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$723.661,27632.1%409 W · 867 L-67.5wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Team Heretics46c1,432$652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.1246326.6%123 W · 340 L-26.0wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-38.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Team Heretics44c1,399$613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613.111,60845.2%727 W · 881 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5703…1048backed Team Heretics44c1,379$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.9711445.6%52 W · 62 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d8f…25f5backed Team Heretics61c1,287$787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7871330.8%4 W · 9 L-4.5wins-0.35per pick65cpaid-54.2%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed Team Heretics64c1,283$827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$827.2723745.1%107 W · 130 L-12.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Team Heretics51c1,255$642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641.51,60137.5%600 W · 1,001 L-75.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5aa4…16e3backed BBL Esports43c1,250$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$707.487252.8%38 W · 34 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+16.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked Team Heretics45c1,154$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.0531153.1%165 W · 146 L+15.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe611…2970backed Team Heretics64c1,136$722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c53…69fbbacked Team Heretics54c1,115$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.15540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Team Heretics48c1,058$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.3223732.9%78 W · 159 L-20.7wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-36.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x32bf…ec60backed BBL Esports48c1,042$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.6719847%93 W · 105 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4309…03a6backed Team Heretics69c1,000$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6901936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdaff…5cb1backed Team Heretics2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20224.5%1 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick5cpaid-92.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Team Heretics79c998.99$789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$789.255152.5%289 W · 262 L+20.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Team Heretics63c979.79$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621.7456551.2%289 W · 276 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked BBL Esports42c965.93$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$557.671,24749.6%619 W · 628 L-2.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65c1…2988backed BBL Esports39c951.34$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$580.3225554.9%140 W · 115 L+13.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Team Heretics38c943.54$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.288145.7%37 W · 44 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Team Heretics36c910.62$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.091,35839%530 W · 828 L-57.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-17%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7714…b814backed BBL Esports43c900$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.661973.7%14 W · 5 L+3.5wins+0.18per pick55cpaid+36.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked BBL Esports38c883.08$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547.5186747.5%412 W · 455 L-2.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Team Heretics29c850.84$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.9520755.6%115 W · 92 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Team Heretics79c844.13$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.8651749.5%256 W · 261 L-2.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dd1…5a9bbacked Team Heretics60c831.08$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50011458.8%67 W · 47 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed BBL Esports35c804.87$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$523.6224946.2%115 W · 134 L-0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed Team Heretics23c800$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1848640.7%35 W · 51 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed BBL Esports39c799.99$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.9953442.1%225 W · 309 L-15.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked Team Heretics45c799.01$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.4554439.9%217 W · 327 L+12.7wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2899…42a5backed BBL Esports50c787.84$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf66e…14b7backed Team Heretics66c771$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.8210349.5%51 W · 52 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d4…f59bbacked Team Heretics51c763.5$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09c6…291ebacked Team Heretics65c742.02$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4831241.7%5 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.19per pick61cpaid-34.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x40e3…5627backed Team Heretics24c739.17$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18019656.6%111 W · 85 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e44…affebacked BBL Esports41c732.68$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.682850%14 W · 14 L+7.3wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+135.7%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x42a1…a8e9backed Team Heretics62c704.9$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.899838.8%38 W · 60 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf280…d801backed BBL Esports49c666$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.663737.8%14 W · 23 L-4.0wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-22.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf679…2d3dbacked Team Heretics57c622.1$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.016647%31 W · 35 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe197…71ebbacked BBL Esports68c603.97$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.311435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-46.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf6b…ca87backed Team Heretics2c600$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12210%0 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a8…6427backed BBL Esports48c600$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31210566.7%70 W · 35 L+10.0wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+9.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa981…ab19backed Team Heretics2c600$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12260%0 W · 26 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed Team Heretics63c597$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.2133838.5%130 W · 208 L-21.7wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-25.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked BBL Esports48c579.59$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.0960154.2%326 W · 275 L+24.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4b4d…5f4abacked BBL Esports30c550$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3856931.9%22 W · 47 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick34cpaid+4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab04…a00abacked Team Heretics50c550$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2754452.3%23 W · 21 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Team Heretics57c549.25$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.5825453.5%136 W · 118 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked BBL Esports40c544.68$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.294361.2%577 W · 366 L+58.2wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked BBL Esports48c536.5$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.0238950.6%197 W · 192 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1032…c372backed Team Heretics51c530.05$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.921050%5 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked BBL Esports27c527.82$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.815450%77 W · 77 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14ca…8f43backed BBL Esports40c525$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3159046.7%42 W · 48 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Team Heretics57c524.99$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.3778562.8%493 W · 292 L+56.2wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4f16…553dbacked Team Heretics59c515.44$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30513455.2%74 W · 60 L+7.2wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbe59…0d2ebacked BBL Esports44c500$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28036648.4%177 W · 189 L+12.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37a1…bedfbacked BBL Esports45c500$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2752343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x57b2…9da2backed BBL Esports39c500$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30518641.4%77 W · 109 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c23…cab3backed Team Heretics58c500$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2907656.6%43 W · 33 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.