Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7370fdb459958bf9f45aca483750032369847b52f13e33802745661320fe034
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,600
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,925
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,600 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 186 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1f7…87e2backed Yes | 3c | 2,781$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff52…688ebacked Yes | 40c | 1,714$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.66 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc16…1094backed Yes | 1c | 1,015$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 53c | 665.05$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.69 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 39c | 609.43$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.68 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 48c | 550$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.6 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 48c | 512.91$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.39 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 481.71$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.89 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed Yes | 39c | 454.88$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.88 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 46c | 352.07$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.9 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 41c | 338.82$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.78 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 51c | 323.49$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.61 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d72…9461backed Yes | 61c | 305.48$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.41 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 42c | 305.46$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.04 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 8c | 299.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 295.53$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.24 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 44c | 286.6$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.69 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3290…53cbbacked Yes | 50c | 281.63$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 36c | 269.07$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.87 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked Yes | 78c | 250.02$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.66 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 21c | 250$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 50c | 247.84$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.81 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 39c | 246.12$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.46 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 43c | 240$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.2 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 58c | 230$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.8 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 26c | 225.75$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.35 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 23c | 214.07$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.02 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 209.19$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d2…39b0backed Yes | 48c | 208.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6c…e2d8backed Yes | 52c | 200$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.39 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 58c | 192$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.06 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c55…ddfbbacked Yes | 59c | 190.49$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.46 | 117 | 24.8%29 W · 88 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 19c | 183.17$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.92 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 180.49$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.61 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 52c | 162$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.76 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 146.12$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.91 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 45c | 143.68$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.96 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 45c | 131.62$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.82 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8810…0e4dbacked Yes | 74c | 130$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.13 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 29c | 124$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.65 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 62c | 120.63$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.64 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 33c | 118$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.68 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 57c | 116.7$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.35 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 115.23$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9980…a036backed No | 64c | 114.53$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.53 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 45c | 112.36$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.08 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 43c | 106.01$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.73 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 17c | 103$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 46c | 101.63$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.37 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 20c | 101.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.25 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…a576backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 53c | 96.25$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.96 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 63c | 88.82$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 59c | 87.21$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.45 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 41c | 83.51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 70c | 82.42$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.36 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 37c | 80.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 21c | 80.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.2 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 47c | 80$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.55 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 40c | 80$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 42c | 79.89$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.27 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef32…265cbacked No | 30c | 79.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.01 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 61c | 79.1$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.85 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a2…e032backed No | 61c | 72$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 32c | 70.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.41 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 59c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 52c | 66.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 65c | 66$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 78c | 64.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.77 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 40c | 64.03$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c56…6e66backed Yes | 42c | 62.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 39c | 62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 80c | 62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6b5dbacked No | 40c | 61.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.46 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x245d…4271backed Yes | 46c | 61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 48c | 60.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.87 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b5…c988backed Yes | 37c | 59.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 64c | 59.32$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 35c | 59.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.47 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf48c…8ec6backed Yes | 37c | 57.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f46…7a71backed No | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 56c | 53.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31b1…11d2backed No | 36c | 53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +15.0wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1c…25f0backed Yes | 45c | 50.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49d5…1eb0backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58ea…08e0backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked Yes | 47c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…9ad9backed Yes | 47c | 49.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.