TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 4?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,707
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,442

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,707 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9f20…12c3backed No78c621.24$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.864,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes16c545.27$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.6147136.5%172 W · 299 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes23c500$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.831,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3290…53cbbacked Yes14c484.42$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704513.3%6 W · 39 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-44.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No79c410.7$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.95,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58ea…08e0backed Yes23c394.66$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.613661.1%22 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick61cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes19c338.95$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.173,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes19c299.9$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.3739427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40e2…aab7backed Yes17c236.53$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.16per pick40cpaid-29.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0036…df65backed Yes33c200.72$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.4319737.1%73 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes17c200$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5363143.1%272 W · 359 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes18c195.98$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.692,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes23c178.61$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.479,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No78c174.19$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.4692678.2%724 W · 202 L+51.2wins+0.06per pick73cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes23c168.8$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5663538.4%244 W · 391 L+12.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes25c163.15$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4499949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x849a…750abacked Yes14c138.15$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-35.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes26c126.65$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4565934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes23c115$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.081,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes23c109.73$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.268,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x35fb…8511backed Yes23c105.01$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1725135.1%88 W · 163 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes23c104.04$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2727047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c55…ddfbbacked Yes21c102.7$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9311724.8%29 W · 88 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-25.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes18c101.65$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.274,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7881848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x567a…b24cbacked Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1912927.1%35 W · 94 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf30a…3583backed Yes22c99.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2216936.1%61 W · 108 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x05c8…092abacked Yes11c99.98$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1136123%83 W · 278 L+15.0wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+27.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes17c98.1$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.511,02425%256 W · 768 L+20.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+39.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No77c97.56$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.684,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes20c94.7$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x8bca…e136backed Yes14c92.2$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7344536.2%161 W · 284 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes29c92.05$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.131,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c93…8967backed Yes19c89.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.144448.6%216 W · 228 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No76c89.65$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.643,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc92…27c9backed Yes15c86.69$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1363255.7%352 W · 280 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed No77c86.42$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.8854853.1%291 W · 257 L-28.7wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes23c83.88$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.661,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes22c79.98$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4456434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes30c75.2$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.561,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc64…2c70backed Yes20c75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152429.2%7 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8a1…1d37backed No78c70$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.632041.9%134 W · 186 L+10.0wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No77c70$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.93,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed No76c68.9$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.551,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No80c68.68$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.741,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes18c67.5$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.181,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3be7…ad70backed Yes24c65.16$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6413411.9%16 W · 118 L+0.1wins0.00per pick12cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b20…eb02backed Yes28c65$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.534846.6%162 W · 186 L+14.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes19c64$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.161,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b31…852cbacked Yes18c63.28$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4925742.4%109 W · 148 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x55b4…2c29backed Yes24c62.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151250%6 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+21.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes23c60.03$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.882,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked Yes22c58.11$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7497152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No78c57.04$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.813,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7b5…c988backed Yes22c54.97$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.343630.6%11 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes22c52.38$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5249551.9%257 W · 238 L-25.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes23c51.39$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.991,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x308d…c45cbacked Yes22c50.22$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes29c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4560739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe6e…2313backed Yes22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1126256.5%148 W · 114 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7585330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8810…0e4dbacked Yes24c49.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122020%4 W · 16 L-4.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-62.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No79c47.36$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.122,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No71c45$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.051,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No79c45$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.42,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No71c45$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.051,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No76c43.24$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.382,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes26c40.2$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.42,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xced2…0d6bbacked No69c39.02$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.115669.2%108 W · 48 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65e2…7c8cbacked Yes29c36.88$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-21.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes30c35$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.657747%271 W · 306 L+40.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0de9…3d1fbacked No76c34.05$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1716036.3%58 W · 102 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed No73c32.28$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.8690555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf576…a786backed No76c30.26$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.2637669.4%261 W · 115 L+1.6wins0.00per pick69cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No65c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.54,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No77c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.92,06774.6%1,542 W · 525 L+23.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x422a…dc4bbacked No77c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.93661.1%22 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c9d…558bbacked No77c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72259.1%13 W · 9 L+0.1wins0.00per pick59cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1fa…9611backed No74c27.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.0315555.5%86 W · 69 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed No77c25.14$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.8954867.3%369 W · 179 L+26.4wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No74c25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.54,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.61,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd610…b3e4backed No69c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.216550.3%83 W · 82 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3880…db44backed No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.9517165.5%112 W · 59 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No78c19.73$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.382,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No67c18$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.943,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d60…a7a5backed No69c17.3$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.3642555.1%234 W · 191 L+13.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x804b…b090backed No69c16.46$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.118365.6%120 W · 63 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No79c16.16$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.312,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No76c15.69$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.721,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2eb6…4a95backed No77c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f24…64b5backed No80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.54040%16 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.