Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02a032b0a7689e0a40555fd54b48a3eeb956e9bdbcfbf67592f16489c5ebbaa5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,707
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,442
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,707 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 78c | 621.24$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.86 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 16c | 545.27$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.61 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 23c | 500$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.83 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3290…53cbbacked Yes | 14c | 484.42$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 410.7$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.9 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58ea…08e0backed Yes | 23c | 394.66$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.61 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 338.95$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.17 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 19c | 299.9$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.37 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40e2…aab7backed Yes | 17c | 236.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed Yes | 33c | 200.72$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.43 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 18c | 195.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 178.61$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.47 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 78c | 174.19$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.46 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 23c | 168.8$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 25c | 163.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.44 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849a…750abacked Yes | 14c | 138.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 26c | 126.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 23c | 115$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 23c | 109.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 23c | 105.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 23c | 104.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c55…ddfbbacked Yes | 21c | 102.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 117 | 24.8%29 W · 88 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 18c | 101.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 11c | 99.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 17c | 98.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 97.56$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 94.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 14c | 92.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 29c | 92.05$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 19c | 89.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 76c | 89.65$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 15c | 86.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 77c | 86.42$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 23c | 83.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 22c | 79.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 30c | 75.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc64…2c70backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 78c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 76c | 68.9$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 80c | 68.68$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 18c | 67.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3be7…ad70backed Yes | 24c | 65.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 134 | 11.9%16 W · 118 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 28c | 65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 19c | 64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 18c | 63.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…2c29backed Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 23c | 60.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 22c | 58.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 57.04$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b5…c988backed Yes | 22c | 54.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 22c | 52.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 23c | 51.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x308d…c45cbacked Yes | 22c | 50.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 29c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8810…0e4dbacked Yes | 24c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 79c | 47.36$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 71c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 79c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 71c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 76c | 43.24$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 26c | 40.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…0d6bbacked No | 69c | 39.02$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 156 | 69.2%108 W · 48 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65e2…7c8cbacked Yes | 29c | 36.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked No | 76c | 34.05$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 73c | 32.28$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 76c | 30.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…dc4bbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9d…558bbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 77c | 25.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…b3e4backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 165 | 50.3%83 W · 82 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 78c | 19.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 67c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 69c | 17.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x804b…b090backed No | 69c | 16.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 183 | 65.6%120 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 79c | 16.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.31 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 76c | 15.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb6…4a95backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f24…64b5backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.