Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3edd5575396456c14336b385d51e632b0fb8b102a66edd6ec941dd985c8e3301
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,764
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,934
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,764 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 31c | 2,481$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,718.59 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 31c | 1,134$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.82 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 9c | 735$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.72 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 69c | 709$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.11 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d72…9461backed No | 58c | 669.31$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.38 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 592.7$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.87 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 18c | 500$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 75c | 481.6$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.11 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 77c | 422.98$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.17 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 389.61$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.27 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…84e8backed No | 77c | 339.97$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.29 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 31c | 334$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.48 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 312.04$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.88 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 69c | 306$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.14 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 33c | 302.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.2 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 73c | 286.23$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.44 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 60c | 286.06$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.29 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 38c | 279.58$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.79 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 26c | 268.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.05 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32af…a7c3backed Yes | 24c | 250$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.61 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +5.6wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +53%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 24c | 250$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.39 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…8e3cbacked No | 80c | 231.54$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.6 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 12c | 219.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 33c | 214.97$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.97 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 49c | 211.42$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.45 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 40c | 209.21$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.9 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2c1dbacked No | 74c | 199$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.58 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 17c | 189.83$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.66 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 44c | 186.08$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.31 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 32c | 165.51$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.73 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 24c | 162.04$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.63 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c55…ddfbbacked Yes | 33c | 161.47$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.6 | 117 | 24.8%29 W · 88 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 41c | 157.89$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.12 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 26c | 156$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.16 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 78c | 154.18$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.59 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 7c | 153.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 23c | 151.22$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.22 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…db37backed Yes | 24c | 147.93$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.89 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 147.11$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.66 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 29c | 136.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.27 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 77c | 132.83$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.44 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes | 20c | 131.15$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.75 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 33c | 130.23$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.76 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 19c | 124.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.74 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 17c | 124.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.19 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 18c | 121$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.34 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed No | 69c | 115.52$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.36 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 114.34$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.77 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 27c | 109.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.63 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 21c | 108.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.08 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc66c…7c32backed No | 80c | 102$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb139…29a1backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 97.57$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.74 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0335…6ecabacked Yes | 65c | 97.22$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.03 | 54 | 92.6%50 W · 4 L | +17.4wins | +0.32per pick | 60cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 17c | 93.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.67 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 43c | 91.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.62 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed Yes | 22c | 91.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.61 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f7…87e2backed No | 70c | 91.34$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ff…ec3dbacked No | 66c | 87.65$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6a…3c24backed Yes | 22c | 82.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.7 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +129%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…3abebacked Yes | 16c | 80.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.44 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 78.14$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.67 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 56c | 74.61$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.42 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 68c | 74.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.49 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 18c | 72.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.19 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 55c | 72$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.74 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 72c | 71.9$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.59 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 31c | 71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.89 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 24c | 70.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.82 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 34c | 70.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.45 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 21c | 70$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.4 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.12 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 34c | 70$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 70$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.96 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 32c | 65.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.25 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 32c | 65.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.28 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c56…6e66backed Yes | 35c | 62.49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.62 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 26c | 62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.16 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x245d…4271backed Yes | 32c | 61.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.82 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 20c | 59.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.29 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed No | 68c | 58.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.73 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…af28backed Yes | 23c | 58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.66 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 32c | 55.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.87 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7c…2d79backed No | 68c | 54.41$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 64 | 25%16 W · 48 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 27c | 54.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.66 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 23c | 53.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.12 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8810…0e4dbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e27…d5babacked Yes | 33c | 47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.59 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 76c | 45.91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 71c | 45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2d…0ef3backed Yes | 27c | 44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.12 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked Yes | 47c | 41.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.21 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 66c | 40.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 77c | 40.45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b5…c988backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.