Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe769be908328603f6a1ef004fec9d5476bda0223172a78cad6c0fca68e69760f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,684
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,789
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,684 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 41c | 985.84$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.84 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed Yes | 73c | 792$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.44 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed No | 34c | 676.38$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.21 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 11c | 620.2$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.94 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 43c | 560.06$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.76 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed Yes | 73c | 443.28$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.14 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 46c | 433.3$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.11 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 33c | 393.44$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.8 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 64c | 384.89$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.95 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 47c | 372$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.79 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 41c | 330.69$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.66 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 30c | 325.81$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.68 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 9c | 324.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…783abacked No | 48c | 298.18$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.55 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 257.89$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.09 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed No | 40c | 250.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 36c | 232.85$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.24 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e86…5c70backed Yes | 62c | 208.56$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 51c | 202.55$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.35 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 59c | 201.33$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.79 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 59c | 200$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefdb…007bbacked Yes | 40c | 199.99$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…3b13backed No | 42c | 197.99$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.86 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 39c | 189.91$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.22 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 186.68$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.35 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 12c | 186.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…3c43backed Yes | 39c | 177.66$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.66 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 35c | 164.26$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.27 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe65e…82a9backed Yes | 42c | 161.58$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.47 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…e166backed Yes | 40c | 159.26$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.65 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x582c…3266backed Yes | 65c | 153.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.23 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 49c | 153$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.7 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ba…cca4backed Yes | 41c | 150$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 63c | 149.99$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 25c | 148.06$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 54c | 146.39$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.29 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 137.08$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.65 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 42c | 136.52$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.18 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 33c | 135.87$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.87 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 55c | 134.85$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.07 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 20c | 130.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 43c | 120$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 47c | 118$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 59c | 113.59$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.98 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 21c | 112.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…d729backed Yes | 44c | 110.95$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.87 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 56c | 108.77$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.61 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 41c | 108.1$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.8 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes | 56c | 107.79$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.79 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x338f…6822backed No | 66c | 100.71$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.09 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa434…cf75backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc732…adefbacked No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 67c | 94$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.98 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 29c | 83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.84 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e24…eea6backed Yes | 65c | 76.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 55c | 70$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.46 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 46c | 69.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.75 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed No | 34c | 68.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 41c | 66.52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.25 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 54c | 65.86$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 45c | 65.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe18e…bf72backed Yes | 64c | 64.64$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed Yes | 55c | 63.05$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.58 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x880b…90a8backed No | 71c | 61.26$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.47 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 60.8$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.53 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed No | 67c | 60.7$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 48c | 56.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 69c | 55.79$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed Yes | 48c | 55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.54 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20fc…7ac9backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeda…b697backed No | 61c | 47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 66c | 45.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 68c | 44.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 44c | 42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…7dafbacked No | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 43 | 81.4%35 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 74cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1714…fbe4backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…122ebacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x335c…733fbacked Yes | 70c | 39.31$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a1…5e41backed Yes | 45c | 38.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 38c | 38.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c25…3703backed No | 40c | 36.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 57c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 44c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 38c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed Yes | 59c | 34.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 45c | 34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab1…ca7abacked No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 35c | 31.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes | 66c | 31.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 42c | 31.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 59c | 30.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.