Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x263127208f93c42bd7a35f8ef5436042f909013a30495235695e57963103b9e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,715
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,000
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,715 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 40c | 679.53$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.95 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 34c | 655.53$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.95 | 3,426 | 31.1%1,066 W · 2,360 L | -38.9wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 45c | 565.9$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.19 | 6,891 | 39.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L | +269.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 62c | 434.3$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.95 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 59c | 385.82$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.11 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 22c | 364.42$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.52 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 67c | 352.33$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.17 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…e166backed Yes | 37c | 349.92$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.87 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 76c | 347.01$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.67 | 4,313 | 53.6%2,311 W · 2,002 L | +158.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 33c | 346.43$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.09 | 609 | 36.8%224 W · 385 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4ca8backed No | 69c | 332.79$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.16 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 71c | 295.54$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.83 | 236 | 63.6%150 W · 86 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d6…11adbacked Yes | 30c | 284.07$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed No | 73c | 278$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.31 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 42c | 272.62$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.18 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…d729backed No | 72c | 243.08$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.41 | 86 | 51.2%44 W · 42 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 24c | 210.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.51 | 401 | 47.6%191 W · 210 L | +24.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 40c | 208.65$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.21 | 553 | 36%199 W · 354 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 36c | 199.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 199 | 20.6%41 W · 158 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 68c | 195.08$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.63 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 8c | 193.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 30c | 190.67$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.61 | 235 | 31.1%73 W · 162 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 37c | 182.9$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.07 | 1,156 | 31.1%359 W · 797 L | -38.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 38c | 169.67$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.74 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 56c | 163.45$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.44 | 331 | 40.2%133 W · 198 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 20c | 162.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.37 | 565 | 51.2%289 W · 276 L | +53.8wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 61c | 150$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 881 | 50.5%445 W · 436 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 63c | 147$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.39 | 940 | 44.8%421 W · 519 L | +16.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…3c43backed Yes | 41c | 146.2$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d9…c3cbbacked No | 70c | 143.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.36 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -5.4wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 63c | 138.97$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.62 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 60c | 133.33$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 156 | 78.2%122 W · 34 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 34c | 129.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 140 | 40%56 W · 84 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 69c | 128.52$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.05 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 33c | 121.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 299 | 36.5%109 W · 190 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 57c | 121.04$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.92 | 2,265 | 39.6%896 W · 1,369 L | -56.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 60c | 111.8$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.87 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 61c | 110.55$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.1 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed No | 70c | 103$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 16c | 101.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 421 | 33.3%140 W · 281 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 923 | 55.9%516 W · 407 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 426 | 30.3%129 W · 297 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 63c | 98.97$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.84 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 51c | 98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.41 | 4,148 | 56.7%2,351 W · 1,797 L | +51.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 61c | 94.18$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.13 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes | 34c | 93.83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 63c | 90$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 3,835 | 61.1%2,345 W · 1,490 L | -35.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab1…ca7abacked Yes | 31c | 89.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 30c | 88.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed No | 67c | 85.36$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 187 | 29.9%56 W · 131 L | -14.5wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed Yes | 45c | 84.5$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.94 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ef…3c3abacked No | 75c | 80.49$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 61c | 79$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.69 | 632 | 43.2%273 W · 359 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 61c | 78.36$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 68c | 77.34$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 2,240 | 49.3%1,104 W · 1,136 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 73$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 5,489 | 56%3,075 W · 2,414 L | -123.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe7…eb63backed Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…122ebacked Yes | 33c | 70$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86f6…ad6dbacked Yes | 29c | 69.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 60c | 63.16$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 814 | 57.5%468 W · 346 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 71c | 60.78$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…4f51backed No | 67c | 59.77$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 59.1$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 31c | 58.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.33 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7240…9906backed Yes | 28c | 52.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64f8…d21abacked No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 25c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 198 | 45.5%90 W · 108 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69d0…6732backed No | 61c | 49.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…3b13backed No | 60c | 48.77$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 71c | 48.76$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 1,244 | 61.7%767 W · 477 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc959…c37fbacked Yes | 41c | 48.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 31c | 45.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 390 | 70.5%275 W · 115 L | +65.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed Yes | 34c | 44.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcda…05b8backed Yes | 32c | 43.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf59…5837backed Yes | 38c | 42.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 56c | 40.91$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a1…5e41backed Yes | 36c | 40.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc732…adefbacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 35c | 39.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1714…fbe4backed Yes | 27c | 39.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 40c | 39.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 542 | 38.9%211 W · 331 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 39.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 38.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…efaebacked No | 36c | 37.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 65c | 36.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 32c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 634 | 55.7%353 W · 281 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 40c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 41c | 34.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 835 | 42.4%354 W · 481 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…c336backed Yes | 51c | 33.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 69c | 33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 1,826 | 62.9%1,149 W · 677 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 41c | 32.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 57c | 31.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked Yes | 37c | 31.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed No | 68c | 31.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 222 | 65.3%145 W · 77 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 65c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 2,506 | 69.7%1,747 W · 759 L | +78.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 65c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 263 | 66.9%176 W · 87 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 1,417 | 65.2%924 W · 493 L | +59.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 33c | 30.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 457 | 46.4%212 W · 245 L | -20.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.