TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: TLN Pirates vs ZYB Esport (BO1) - LFL Regular Season

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
ZYB Esportof TLN Pirates, ZYB Esport
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$290,214
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$365,822

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $290,214 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 273 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe361…ae44backed TLN Pirates8c48,735$3,895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,895.0489746.9%421 W · 476 L+43.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8a86…4998backed ZYB Esport39c12,063$4,699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,364.1118629.6%55 W · 131 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed TLN Pirates49c9,215$4,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,560.491,42838.4%548 W · 880 L-42.4wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf06…c9ffbacked TLN Pirates1c8,991$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.9163551.8%329 W · 306 L+39.0wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+22.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1a86…0079backed TLN Pirates1c3,533$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.512644.4%56 W · 70 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x68a6…e96bbacked ZYB Esport46c3,500$1,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,889.991,22348.6%594 W · 629 L-0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2518…254fbacked ZYB Esport55c3,329$1,825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,503.7154555.2%301 W · 244 L+24.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed TLN Pirates51c3,212$1,654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,653.61,85239.8%738 W · 1,114 L-64.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-21.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked TLN Pirates55c3,156$1,722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,722.4935835.5%127 W · 231 L-12.6wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd30…fc9bbacked TLN Pirates59c3,116$1,838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,837.557247.2%34 W · 38 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed ZYB Esport49c3,069$1,493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,576.322,54039.7%1,009 W · 1,531 L-79.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x079e…5e12backed ZYB Esport46c2,957$1,354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,602.11333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked TLN Pirates50c2,501$1,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,239.22,02030.5%617 W · 1,403 L-172.4wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6e54…511ebacked ZYB Esport42c2,377$995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,382.5142042.4%178 W · 242 L-9.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x141a…d05abacked ZYB Esport61c2,368$1,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$934.8322667.3%152 W · 74 L+27.9wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+36.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1fb8…5a88backed TLN Pirates40c2,263$913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$913.535654.8%195 W · 161 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf071…04d6backed TLN Pirates4c1,909$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.4713336.8%49 W · 84 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefdd…1e8abacked TLN Pirates55c1,880$1,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,038.8528544.9%128 W · 157 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed TLN Pirates56c1,848$1,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,037.7746451.7%240 W · 224 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e03…040fbacked ZYB Esport43c1,698$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$967.968047.5%38 W · 42 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4ac…9722backed ZYB Esport44c1,592$705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$887.489944.4%44 W · 55 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed TLN Pirates27c1,521$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.651,57155.1%866 W · 705 L+80.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked TLN Pirates53c1,391$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$740.281,67157.9%968 W · 703 L+70.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a8a…9dfcbacked ZYB Esport53c1,379$729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650.436732.8%22 W · 45 L-7.9wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-32.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed TLN Pirates7c1,312$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.181,60817.5%282 W · 1,326 L-245.3wins-0.15per pick33cpaid-63.5%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x8d21…b3cfbacked TLN Pirates31c1,214$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.4136359%214 W · 149 L+21.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xefbc…b344backed TLN Pirates54c1,198$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64522146.6%103 W · 118 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f0e…7397backed TLN Pirates60c1,175$711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$710.5316945%76 W · 93 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6f8…7fa1backed ZYB Esport42c1,175$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$680.4978646.4%365 W · 421 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb039…c6d9backed TLN Pirates59c1,170$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$686.9116750.9%85 W · 82 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x57b2…9da2backed ZYB Esport34c1,036$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$686.2535742.9%153 W · 204 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab96…989fbacked TLN Pirates67c1,009$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674.5224434.4%84 W · 160 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed ZYB Esport32c1,006$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$684.261,20354%650 W · 553 L+28.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3752…2f08backed TLN Pirates40c1,000$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39532045.6%146 W · 174 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea58…930fbacked TLN Pirates41c1,000$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4101,21644.4%540 W · 676 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed ZYB Esport31c999.99$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$690.141,15355.9%645 W · 508 L+25.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed TLN Pirates54c999.99$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.991,22135.9%438 W · 783 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1311…d450backed ZYB Esport55c999.98$553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.9931838.1%121 W · 197 L-15.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-16.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed TLN Pirates57c970.91$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.421,32038.6%510 W · 810 L-66.0wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x26be…805fbacked TLN Pirates54c925.93$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5008967.4%60 W · 29 L+13.6wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+33.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x8006…94a3backed TLN Pirates45c916.11$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.181457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+49.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x257c…a408backed ZYB Esport57c871.35$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.3536652.5%192 W · 174 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed TLN Pirates40c790.39$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.281,05650.4%532 W · 524 L+36.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed TLN Pirates67c757.37$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.482,23733.3%745 W · 1,492 L-71.3wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f16…284ebacked TLN Pirates67c750$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.59266.3%61 W · 31 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdccf…faeabacked ZYB Esport43c734.43$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.434854.2%26 W · 22 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0da…749bbacked TLN Pirates4c715$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4568915.2%105 W · 584 L-31.1wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-58.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ed1…fd2abacked ZYB Esport43c700.01$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.0135642.4%151 W · 205 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x092b…614ebacked ZYB Esport58c689.66$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.6615644.2%69 W · 87 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0af3…9cb5backed TLN Pirates68c654.91$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.345740.4%23 W · 34 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-20.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdfa8…cae6backed ZYB Esport61c651.98$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.9882953.4%443 W · 386 L-3.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5ea…d07fbacked TLN Pirates25c649.98$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.9995951.3%492 W · 467 L+42.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x54b5…2208backed ZYB Esport42c648.21$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.965328.3%15 W · 38 L-4.9wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-33%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3135…f6c3backed TLN Pirates54c648.15$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35032253.1%171 W · 151 L+19.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0612…6193backed ZYB Esport32c637.93$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.7321749.8%108 W · 109 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbc6…9092backed TLN Pirates5c622.97$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3031321.1%66 W · 247 L-11.0wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x10ef…7d7bbacked TLN Pirates56c607.16$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.0569259.7%413 W · 279 L+75.8wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8a3b…aa7dbacked ZYB Esport43c605$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.8512349.6%61 W · 62 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34a8…8c5cbacked TLN Pirates68c600.1$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.142119%4 W · 17 L-5.0wins-0.24per pick43cpaid-60.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x7029…1136backed ZYB Esport42c541.85$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.316645.8%76 W · 90 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9227…7cedbacked ZYB Esport56c491.7$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.755347%260 W · 293 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e24…4fabbacked TLN Pirates58c485.38$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.3434858%202 W · 146 L+19.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b5a…1457backed ZYB Esport32c484.99$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.7936743.6%160 W · 207 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5e8…fafcbacked ZYB Esport31c475.45$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.0613534.1%46 W · 89 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1044…d67abacked TLN Pirates22c474$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.2438931.9%124 W · 265 L-14.5wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-28.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x561d…94bebacked ZYB Esport58c452.68$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.6846552.7%245 W · 220 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd93b…cd48backed ZYB Esport66c442.12$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.5732939.8%131 W · 198 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c8b…7a07backed ZYB Esport43c441.46$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.634269%29 W · 13 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc22e…eab8backed ZYB Esport34c441.2$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.1922742.7%97 W · 130 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x060d…d746backed TLN Pirates66c440.5$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.333046.7%14 W · 16 L-3.2wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-8.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed TLN Pirates53c419.3$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.223,15933.8%1,068 W · 2,091 L-152.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked TLN Pirates57c403.44$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.971,47643.6%643 W · 833 L-31.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21f2…aeb7backed TLN Pirates51c400$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20420542.4%87 W · 118 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-17.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cc0…6139backed ZYB Esport61c400$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15635546.8%166 W · 189 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca81…f2abbacked ZYB Esport32c399.98$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.9961343.6%267 W · 346 L+8.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67ba…246cbacked ZYB Esport58c398.51$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.5127352.4%143 W · 130 L+13.8wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe35b…b542backed TLN Pirates54c395$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.34042.5%17 W · 23 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f4e…b690backed TLN Pirates57c389.3$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.982954.5%452 W · 377 L+3.3wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa500…39d1backed TLN Pirates68c369$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.9212548.8%61 W · 64 L-10.1wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-14.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x97f9…0aebbacked TLN Pirates66c368.99$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.542250%11 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked ZYB Esport48c365.71$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.732,98444.5%1,329 W · 1,655 L-94.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed ZYB Esport42c351.24$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.7247136.9%174 W · 297 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca7c…e994backed TLN Pirates58c349.53$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.731,39944.9%628 W · 771 L-14.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc4b…ecc5backed ZYB Esport44c336.13$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.232454.2%13 W · 11 L+3.2wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe8f4…c390backed ZYB Esport43c335.81$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.419736.1%35 W · 62 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bba…cf14backed TLN Pirates69c327.54$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22624038.3%92 W · 148 L-15.5wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-21%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd6dd…238bbacked ZYB Esport32c315$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21522840.8%93 W · 135 L+0.7wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x584f…54b9backed ZYB Esport33c307.03$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.5419259.9%115 W · 77 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d40…5739backed ZYB Esport66c304.62$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.629848%47 W · 51 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked ZYB Esport33c303$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.2456034.8%195 W · 365 L-14.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-2.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked TLN Pirates65c300$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.9660943.2%263 W · 346 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d0a…0809backed ZYB Esport44c300$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16853829.4%158 W · 380 L-13.8wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb46…ed08backed ZYB Esport34c300$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19832736.7%120 W · 207 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf20b…e27dbacked TLN Pirates69c300$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20735149.3%173 W · 178 L+11.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed ZYB Esport42c299.99$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1741,41243.8%618 W · 794 L-3.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74ab…ee2bbacked TLN Pirates66c299.99$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.992744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a7e…9dc6backed ZYB Esport40c296.02$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.8446448.9%227 W · 237 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6407…d360backed ZYB Esport34c294.12$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.1243543.2%188 W · 247 L-0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5dc8…e209backed ZYB Esport34c294.1$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.1123146.8%108 W · 123 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91d7…0dfcbacked ZYB Esport41c292$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.6319835.4%70 W · 128 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.