TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

WNBA · resolved market

Las Vegas Aces vs. Chicago Sky

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Las Vegas Acesof Las Vegas Aces, Chicago Sky
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$116,083
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$124,079

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $116,083 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in WNBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x664a…fc5fbacked Chicago Sky10c11,874$1,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,236.4910340.8%42 W · 61 L-0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Chicago Sky8c10,593$801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801.0834726.5%92 W · 255 L-20.7wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-39.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Las Vegas Aces79c9,823$7,752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,070.181,76551.7%912 W · 853 L+53.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xafe4…f3f7backed Chicago Sky28c8,000$2,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,239.9927449.6%136 W · 138 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Chicago Sky8c7,246$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.5778548.8%383 W · 402 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Chicago Sky5c6,373$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.4974942.3%317 W · 432 L-21.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Las Vegas Aces72c3,738$2,691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,046.6436154%195 W · 166 L+0.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Chicago Sky11c3,280$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.1119428.9%56 W · 138 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5400…8a89backed Chicago Sky3c3,279$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.49214.8%1 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-83%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20b4…bfa2backed Chicago Sky9c2,988$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.95560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick36cpaid+25.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Chicago Sky3c2,854$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.1226147.1%123 W · 138 L+15.7wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd81e…e3d0backed Las Vegas Aces72c2,797$2,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$783.314452.8%76 W · 68 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd27c…c081backed Las Vegas Aces76c2,078$1,579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.772382.6%19 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.13per pick70cpaid+20.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Chicago Sky1c2,021$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.84960%0 W · 96 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc308…7b09backed Chicago Sky2c2,000$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3744915.6%70 W · 379 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63df…63d1backed Chicago Sky6c1,960$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.97638.2%29 W · 47 L+8.2wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+35.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd5a6…6991backed Chicago Sky30c1,667$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5005633.9%19 W · 37 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+14.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Las Vegas Aces75c1,564$1,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.1150952.5%267 W · 242 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x520d…e474backed Las Vegas Aces76c1,488$1,127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.422875%21 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Las Vegas Aces72c1,350$973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.4232049.4%158 W · 162 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ec6…d9edbacked Chicago Sky3c1,300$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399318.3%17 W · 76 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Chicago Sky6c1,123$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.3815741.4%65 W · 92 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-14.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Chicago Sky6c1,069$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6410634.9%37 W · 69 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-30.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ac1…d5a6backed Chicago Sky29c1,000$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2908657%49 W · 37 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Chicago Sky24c969.38$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.0131043.2%134 W · 176 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed Las Vegas Aces75c771.97$579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.9915654.5%85 W · 71 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9767…1a16backed Chicago Sky29c760.68$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2206437.5%24 W · 40 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc98f…a13fbacked Chicago Sky2c640$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.79568.9%5 W · 51 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-71.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe187…a69cbacked Las Vegas Aces74c528.56$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.115766.7%38 W · 19 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Chicago Sky25c500$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12510923.9%26 W · 83 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-46.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Chicago Sky7c439.21$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6319031.1%59 W · 131 L-14.2wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-43.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd654…45c2backed Las Vegas Aces73c419.99$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.44060%24 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd546…657bbacked Chicago Sky9c404.76$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf1a…d74ebacked Las Vegas Aces74c404$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1042777.8%21 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick72cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc48…c120backed Las Vegas Aces72c400$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1144247.6%20 W · 22 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf333…038cbacked Las Vegas Aces74c391.57$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.813265.6%21 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6770…5bdfbacked Chicago Sky13c368.47$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485642.9%24 W · 32 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Chicago Sky27c330.74$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.3492248.8%450 W · 472 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Las Vegas Aces77c327.8$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.3319458.2%113 W · 81 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb3dd…81b2backed Chicago Sky9c324.61$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.821127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-42.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Chicago Sky24c260$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.421446.3%99 W · 115 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ee4…ed67backed Chicago Sky26c253.07$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.293441.2%14 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Chicago Sky27c229.56$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.9840550.9%206 W · 199 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Chicago Sky18c204.36$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.831847.8%152 W · 166 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ec2…bd08backed Chicago Sky26c199.82$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.9514942.3%63 W · 86 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09da…50bcbacked Las Vegas Aces76c197.57$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.573680.6%29 W · 7 L+8.2wins+0.23per pick58cpaid+48.2%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x2e45…4b13backed Las Vegas Aces79c189.87$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.874269%29 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf66e…14b7backed Las Vegas Aces75c187$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.758960.7%54 W · 35 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f9…5273backed Chicago Sky29c181.59$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.664146.3%19 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-23.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Chicago Sky8c175$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7534753.9%187 W · 160 L+20.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Chicago Sky29c168.01$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2823245.7%106 W · 126 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Chicago Sky9c168$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1255255.1%304 W · 248 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Chicago Sky23c158.16$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.6313358.6%78 W · 55 L+8.2wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb7d…7862backed Las Vegas Aces72c151.48$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.787345.2%33 W · 40 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa61…7f3bbacked Las Vegas Aces71c150$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.528558.6%167 W · 118 L+20.0wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+12.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbbb4…0060backed Chicago Sky28c149.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425341.5%22 W · 31 L-4.6wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9aca…61fdbacked Chicago Sky28c138.83$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8714148.9%69 W · 72 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2bf3…4f00backed Las Vegas Aces78c138.35$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.445969.5%41 W · 18 L+7.6wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+16.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Chicago Sky9c131$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3430649%150 W · 156 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Chicago Sky26c129.57$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.997746.8%36 W · 41 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+20.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x722a…d6edbacked Las Vegas Aces78c125.35$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.581656.3%9 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick67cpaid-15.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Chicago Sky11c113$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9936454.1%197 W · 167 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6016…1ab5backed Chicago Sky29c93.54$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.131060%6 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+22.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa68…ba5dbacked Las Vegas Aces73c90$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.38053.8%43 W · 37 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked Chicago Sky14c89$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1611351.3%58 W · 55 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ab1…1975backed Las Vegas Aces72c84.26$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.591330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-49.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x32bb…8fb8backed Chicago Sky27c80.26$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.673240.6%13 W · 19 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+21.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa696…45cfbacked Chicago Sky27c80.05$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.01333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Chicago Sky25c78.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5829654.4%161 W · 135 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Chicago Sky26c71.79$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7832346.7%151 W · 172 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4e6…3fd8backed Chicago Sky29c66.83$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x349e…867bbacked Las Vegas Aces75c66.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.679460.6%57 W · 37 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x189e…5aaebacked Las Vegas Aces76c65$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.63672.2%26 W · 10 L+4.9wins+0.14per pick59cpaid+26.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Chicago Sky25c62.77$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1613422.4%30 W · 104 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-23.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Chicago Sky27c59.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.417143.9%75 W · 96 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1052…c340backed Chicago Sky26c57.69$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151540%6 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Chicago Sky19c56.98$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8337650.3%189 W · 187 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc92c…6f15backed Las Vegas Aces73c54.46$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.461050%5 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-26%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf9ef…7ee6backed Las Vegas Aces74c54.05$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.057062.9%44 W · 26 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45d5…a7a0backed Chicago Sky28c53.23$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8713745.3%62 W · 75 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19e5…dd71backed Las Vegas Aces76c51.39$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3312359.3%73 W · 50 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd4f9…84f7backed Chicago Sky26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.092147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Chicago Sky28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2528447.9%136 W · 148 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5f2…042ebacked Las Vegas Aces73c47.95$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.951266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69fa…e259backed Chicago Sky29c45.14$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.091540%6 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-28%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x976f…8a71backed Las Vegas Aces74c45$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.75580%4 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick69cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d4c…fc89backed Las Vegas Aces72c41.81$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.811968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4ad…795cbacked Las Vegas Aces73c41.1$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.122967.7%155 W · 74 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Chicago Sky27c40.77$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0171245.4%323 W · 389 L-19.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x23d6…18a2backed Chicago Sky25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5407…5bbdbacked Chicago Sky28c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.21735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x664e…eccdbacked Las Vegas Aces73c39.95$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.59580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+15.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc593…ea8cbacked Las Vegas Aces76c37$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.883571.4%25 W · 10 L+5.2wins+0.15per pick56cpaid+30%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x880b…90a8backed Chicago Sky28c35.71$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.051154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4787…db20backed Las Vegas Aces75c31.69$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.923770.3%26 W · 11 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xea10…a070backed Las Vegas Aces74c31.28$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.131861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a63…ceabbacked Las Vegas Aces73c31$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.379146.2%42 W · 49 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10f4…3b7ebacked Las Vegas Aces74c27.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.035957.6%34 W · 25 L+11.3wins+0.19per pick38cpaid+81.5%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xe294…d74bbacked Las Vegas Aces75c26.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd67a…92edbacked Chicago Sky50c25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.