TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 36°C on August 6?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$27,481
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$24,598

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,481 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x79ad…4eedbacked No79c2,703$2,133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.446845.6%31 W · 37 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes24c2,076$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.487934.2%27 W · 52 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-30.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7a7…ecddbacked Yes22c1,533$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.894712.8%6 W · 41 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-25.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x331b…193fbacked Yes14c505.01$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.0290040.7%366 W · 534 L+112.3wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+63.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes16c500$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.0434918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes20c387.76$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.91,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe605…914fbacked Yes19c349.99$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.8511438.6%44 W · 70 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a97…395bbacked Yes21c340$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.9533628.9%97 W · 239 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91f8…d951backed Yes9c331.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305752.6%30 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No72c327.74$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.62,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked Yes19c315.83$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.381,21129.8%361 W · 850 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked Yes18c300$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5497152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes13c291.67$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.617,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x7c4d…bb01backed No69c287.76$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.7821829.4%64 W · 154 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x696a…e23abacked No70c287.5$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.25475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.36per pick39cpaid+62.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No80c281.5$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.42,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No78c270.7$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.035,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed No72c261.09$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.5940265.9%265 W · 137 L+31.7wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa590…87d4backed Yes23c253.33$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.0550%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9159…f1a8backed Yes29c241.52$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.456439.1%25 W · 39 L-0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52c6…4347backed Yes27c241.07$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.161323.1%3 W · 10 L-3.3wins-0.26per pick49cpaid-64%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes10c239.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes13c229.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.91,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes6c216.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.021,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a2f…e889backed No75c212.1$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.4722849.6%113 W · 115 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes20c211.77$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.4856424.5%138 W · 426 L-18.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No77c207$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.024,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Yes24c199.98$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4817028.8%49 W · 121 L-12.9wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No77c179$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.35,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes33c174$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.214,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06da…af33backed Yes18c173.5$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0225332%81 W · 172 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9e9…f1ccbacked No73c171.23$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.2313959%82 W · 57 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes23c166.01$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.656,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes22c162.57$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.0467633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes17c155.16$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.684,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa951…6372backed No79c144.59$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes9c136.6$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.752,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes17c134.66$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.523,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes30c133.85$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf325…f8e0backed Yes28c122.26$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.234047.5%19 W · 21 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick37cpaid-6.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes13c119.35$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.446,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9fba…3adcbacked Yes13c118$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.068641.9%36 W · 50 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No74c102$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.522,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes24c101$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.249,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x33e8…dc93backed Yes18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1823941.4%99 W · 140 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb615…62b9backed Yes24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2460550.7%307 W · 298 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x803a…219ebacked No76c100$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.0126265.6%172 W · 90 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa754…ec4bbacked Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207413.5%10 W · 64 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes16c99.65$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.361,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No78c99.3$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.243,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7831…a330backed Yes11c91.86$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.013327.3%9 W · 24 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No69c89.99$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No71c88.96$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.614,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes19c85.7$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.262,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No80c79.73$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.124,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x593a…b9f4backed Yes27c75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.251353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.18per pick36cpaid+30.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No69c73.03$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.6410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a338backed Yes28c70.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2029037.9%110 W · 180 L+29.1wins+0.10per pick28cpaid+25.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2250…4cd7backed Yes18c59.87$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9611950.4%60 W · 59 L+6.7wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No75c58$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.51,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes19c55.98$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.782,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed No79c54$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.3454853.1%291 W · 257 L-28.7wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No73c52.29$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.163,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No72c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.93,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No76c49.91$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.843,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No76c48.81$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.814,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x902b…6e29backed No74c48.11$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.431478.6%11 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick73cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No72c48$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.573,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd71…1281backed Yes29c45.68$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3853951.9%280 W · 259 L+54.4wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No75c43.62$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.8412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No74c37.29$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.74,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed Yes28c37$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5495852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed No69c34.66$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.863,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed No75c33.52$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.4389951.6%464 W · 435 L-40.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb75f…f98bbacked No79c29.19$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.134647.8%22 W · 24 L-3.9wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-20.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No71c28.17$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.171,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6aa5…7059backed No71c26.41$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.663948.7%19 W · 20 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No80c26.37$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.272,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No79c25.07$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.264,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No79c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.251,27450.9%649 W · 625 L-35.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x948f…0b98backed No78c23.7$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.3111983.2%99 W · 20 L+21.5wins+0.18per pick65cpaid+27.5%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No71c21.1$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.121,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.24,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdba1…8239backed No80c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412853.9%69 W · 59 L+10.0wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x599f…3317backed No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512578.4%98 W · 27 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick75cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No68c19$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.082,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed No73c19$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.0542160.6%255 W · 166 L-25.0wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xddba…e638backed No78c18$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.9940862.3%254 W · 154 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5238…be0dbacked No73c16$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.322347.8%11 W · 12 L-3.8wins-0.17per pick64cpaid-33.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1586…cd6cbacked No71c14$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick52cpaid-11.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed No75c13.33$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.332,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c0f…229abacked No80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.51782.4%14 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick80cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.