TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 35°C on August 6?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,221
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,627

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,221 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd251…4d37backed Yes42c1,192$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691.211,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x79ad…4eedbacked Yes46c810$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.96845.6%31 W · 37 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No54c746.95$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.1838243.2%165 W · 217 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes43c557.75$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.752,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes42c523$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.8121236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa590…87d4backed No20c384.49$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.9950%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No18c358.96$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.387,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xe605…914fbacked Yes43c357.94$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.4311438.6%44 W · 70 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No61c342$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.584,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No13c339.98$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.981,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No59c298.63$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.122,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No29c289.12$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.21,31656.2%740 W · 576 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No14c267.91$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.454,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No13c257.43$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.472,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a03…84afbacked Yes80c256.57$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.1136930.6%113 W · 256 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked No18c254.8$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.156424.5%138 W · 426 L-18.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6fb…c038backed Yes40c250$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.0543932.8%144 W · 295 L+20.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No55c244.08$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.63,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c8…11a0backed Yes43c231.83$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.833855.3%21 W · 17 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+23%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x90ae…2475backed No52c200$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10457150.4%288 W · 283 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed No14c179.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.23,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No55c168.64$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.922,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9418…e9f8backed Yes40c166.06$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.091,10830%332 W · 776 L-38.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes46c166.01$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.996,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No28c156$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.64,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2bc…1485backed Yes43c150$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.56346%29 W · 34 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No40c148.7$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.985,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No58c141$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.179,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x06da…af33backed Yes39c139.98$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.9925332%81 W · 172 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No55c134.99$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.0512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No57c133$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.815,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No60c122.62$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.184,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes36c119.99$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.1956627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No42c119.78$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.5479947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1775…85b0backed Yes73c116.43$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.4336648.4%177 W · 189 L+25.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6845…b6ddbacked Yes77c110.28$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.34776.6%36 W · 11 L+7.0wins+0.15per pick62cpaid+25%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x52c6…4347backed No56c107.14$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601323.1%3 W · 10 L-3.3wins-0.26per pick49cpaid-64%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf828…5ca4backed Yes39c100$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612326.1%6 W · 17 L-4.2wins-0.18per pick44cpaid-43.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No57c100$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No60c99.3$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.13,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98d1…019abacked Yes33c99$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.3325536.9%94 W · 161 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+24.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed No56c94.6$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.9785049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No30c88.87$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.811,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No12c86.55$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1595852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No59c85$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.54,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd456…63a4backed Yes36c83.47$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.474247.6%20 W · 22 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+14%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5219…7f31backed No54c82$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.2835344.5%157 W · 196 L-18.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No29c80.23$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.283,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd2d9…5653backed Yes48c75.81$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.424337.2%16 W · 27 L-4.1wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-27.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xadb9…8326backed Yes35c72$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4714645.9%67 W · 79 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes45c70.53$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.667633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No57c70$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.73,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a23…932abacked Yes36c70$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.81346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+23.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No65c70$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.52,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No30c69.96$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9998236.7%360 W · 622 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf865…d810backed Yes43c66.17$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.64540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9159…f1a8backed Yes64c62.32$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.326439.1%25 W · 39 L-0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes41c60.01$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.2637541.6%156 W · 219 L-52.4wins-0.14per pick56cpaid-28%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xc176…5d01backed Yes66c58.86$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.8610463.5%66 W · 38 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+1.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No57c58$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.061,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No62c57.21$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.434,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x70c4…1008backed No54c55.56$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3033350.2%167 W · 166 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4e3…5296backed Yes45c55.56$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5620339.9%81 W · 122 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No56c55.06$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.864,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b7c…f811backed Yes74c54.97$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.298247.6%39 W · 43 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52fe…c258backed Yes46c54.35$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.354141.5%17 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Yes44c54.04$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.0517028.8%49 W · 121 L-12.9wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa982…6fd1backed Yes54c52.49$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.973540%14 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No52c52.45$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes74c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.0844945.9%206 W · 243 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes47c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.53,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe828…ae41backed Yes40c48.9$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.419027.8%25 W · 65 L-10.0wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-34.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x379a…4b1abacked Yes47c47.87$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.3742948%206 W · 223 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x562b…f9febacked No61c45.24$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.467653.9%41 W · 35 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes68c44.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.5530834.4%106 W · 202 L+0.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No60c44.82$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.12,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf184…d472backed Yes75c42.52$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.789769.1%67 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes66c40.58$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.972,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x272e…6e99backed Yes41c40$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.616724.6%41 W · 126 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No65c40$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No55c37.29$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.684,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed Yes49c37$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.871,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No56c35.95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x025e…bb39backed Yes41c35.5$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.9510554.3%57 W · 48 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29ef…dddabacked Yes40c34.03$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.2718247.3%86 W · 96 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-11.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes51c33.66$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.562,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes47c31.91$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9115347.1%72 W · 81 L-8.6wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-9.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes48c31$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.1219541.5%81 W · 114 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99ef…ab48backed Yes46c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.26653%35 W · 31 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b20…eb02backed Yes44c30$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.934846.6%162 W · 186 L+14.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e4c…2918backed Yes35c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.53836.8%14 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes73c29.98$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.996,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8c3e…3865backed Yes74c29.27$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.539176.9%70 W · 21 L+9.6wins+0.11per pick66cpaid+14.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes59c28.11$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.42,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed Yes61c27.6$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.752,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No57c26.26$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.971,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No57c25.63$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.551,27450.9%649 W · 625 L-35.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed Yes73c25.13$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.692,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No55c25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.752,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed No58c25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.542160.6%255 W · 166 L-25.0wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.