Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 35°C on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35e13a00a7518507b2b4216b45f2d8e3cef9a4d10cfa8817b04eb691dfdf2c47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,221
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,627
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,221 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 42c | 1,192$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.21 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…4eedbacked Yes | 46c | 810$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.9 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 54c | 746.95$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.18 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 43c | 557.75$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.75 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 42c | 523$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.81 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa590…87d4backed No | 20c | 384.49$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 18c | 358.96$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.38 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…914fbacked Yes | 43c | 357.94$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.43 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 342$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.58 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 13c | 339.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 59c | 298.63$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.12 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 29c | 289.12$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.2 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 14c | 267.91$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 13c | 257.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 80c | 256.57$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.11 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 18c | 254.8$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.05 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 55c | 244.08$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.6 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…11a0backed Yes | 43c | 231.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.83 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 14c | 179.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 55c | 168.64$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.92 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 40c | 166.06$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.09 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 46c | 166.01$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.99 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 28c | 156$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bc…1485backed Yes | 43c | 150$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 40c | 148.7$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.98 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 141$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.17 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 39c | 139.98$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.99 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 134.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.05 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 133$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.81 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 122.62$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.18 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 36c | 119.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.19 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 42c | 119.78$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.54 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 73c | 116.43$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…b6ddbacked Yes | 77c | 110.28$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 47 | 76.6%36 W · 11 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x52c6…4347backed No | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.26per pick | 49cpaid | -64%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf828…5ca4backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 60c | 99.3$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.1 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 33c | 99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.33 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 56c | 94.6$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.97 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 30c | 88.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 12c | 86.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 59c | 85$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…63a4backed Yes | 36c | 83.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.47 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 54c | 82$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 29c | 80.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 48c | 75.81$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.42 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed Yes | 35c | 72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 45c | 70.53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.6 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 57c | 70$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a23…932abacked Yes | 36c | 70$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 65c | 70$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf865…d810backed Yes | 43c | 66.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9159…f1a8backed Yes | 64c | 62.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes | 41c | 60.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.26 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc176…5d01backed Yes | 66c | 58.86$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 57c | 58$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 62c | 57.21$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 56c | 55.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7c…f811backed Yes | 74c | 54.97$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52fe…c258backed Yes | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 44c | 54.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa982…6fd1backed Yes | 54c | 52.49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 52c | 52.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed Yes | 40c | 48.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 90 | 27.8%25 W · 65 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 47c | 47.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.37 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…f9febacked No | 61c | 45.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 68c | 44.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 60c | 44.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…d472backed Yes | 75c | 42.52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 97 | 69.1%67 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 66c | 40.58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…6e99backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 55c | 37.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 49c | 37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 56c | 35.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed Yes | 41c | 35.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 40c | 34.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 51c | 33.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 48c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ef…ab48backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4c…2918backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 73c | 29.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3e…3865backed Yes | 74c | 29.27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +9.6wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 59c | 28.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 61c | 27.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 57c | 26.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 57c | 25.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 73c | 25.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 35°C on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 33°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 34°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 36°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 37°C or higher on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.