NBA · resolved market
Raptors vs. Thunder
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xead876eaaae13091afac75bbc2d083b424bbdb2c2fa9f5026f200ea12f4632f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Raptors, Thunder
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $169,445
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $156,517
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $169,445 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Raptors | 8c | 13,050$1,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,064 | 1,782 | 28%499 W · 1,283 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf5…6440backed Raptors | 10c | 10,500$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 469 | 28.4%133 W · 336 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…b899backed Raptors | 9c | 9,569$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Raptors | 1c | 5,504$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.03 | 232 | 37.1%86 W · 146 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Raptors | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 335 | 0%0 W · 335 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Raptors | 8c | 5,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1,290 | 44%567 W · 723 L | +35.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Raptors | 5c | 4,648$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.9 | 308 | 26.6%82 W · 226 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Raptors | 2c | 4,109$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.37 | 878 | 3%26 W · 852 L | -22.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -62%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x725f…06c2backed Raptors | 7c | 3,454$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1,888 | 37.3%704 W · 1,184 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9042…dcf5backed Raptors | 8c | 3,059$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.69 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Raptors | 8c | 3,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 406 | 27.8%113 W · 293 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd8…858ebacked Raptors | 1c | 2,950$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 365 | 14.2%52 W · 313 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5f…bf45backed Raptors | 8c | 2,925$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd692…8b9abacked Raptors | 7c | 2,297$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 262 | 35.9%94 W · 168 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3697…f189backed Raptors | 2c | 2,292$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 652 | 18.4%120 W · 532 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae1e…7c4cbacked Raptors | 2c | 2,242$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda6b…20bebacked Raptors | 12c | 2,110$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x873c…ac48backed Raptors | 8c | 2,075$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.02 | 258 | 33.7%87 W · 171 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc25…1f7fbacked Raptors | 7c | 2,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 964 | 47.8%461 W · 503 L | +35.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5482…b6eebacked Raptors | 1c | 1,822$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 550 | 2.5%14 W · 536 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba9e…13b0backed Raptors | 8c | 1,500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…6631backed Raptors | 8c | 1,500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99b6…a768backed Raptors | 4c | 1,484$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.9 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +56%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Raptors | 2c | 1,272$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 1,035 | 1.1%11 W · 1,024 L | -24.4wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -90.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbdc…a9bfbacked Raptors | 9c | 1,270$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec5c…ce46backed Raptors | 8c | 1,125$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 451 | 35%158 W · 293 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa591…9079backed Raptors | 4c | 1,010$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b35…a749backed Raptors | 9c | 1,005$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.6 | 364 | 23.4%85 W · 279 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x520a…ab8abacked Raptors | 9c | 1,001$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 510 | 37.5%191 W · 319 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73f0…3d28backed Raptors | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 364 | 34.9%127 W · 237 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x837c…bfeebacked Raptors | 2c | 999.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe8…56a3backed Raptors | 8c | 999.95$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 321 | 30.2%97 W · 224 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Raptors | 7c | 999.67$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.98 | 1,164 | 49.6%577 W · 587 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…085fbacked Raptors | 8c | 937.63$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.01 | 166 | 17.5%29 W · 137 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e63…3973backed Raptors | 3c | 758.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…00aabacked Raptors | 6c | 740.29$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.28 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b67…584fbacked Raptors | 4c | 675$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -52%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…9c8ebacked Raptors | 5c | 651.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 380 | 27.1%103 W · 277 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f66…8938backed Raptors | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 264 | 31.8%84 W · 180 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfafc…2932backed Raptors | 7c | 549.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed0e…b305backed Raptors | 3c | 518.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 217 | 23.5%51 W · 166 L | +9.6wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…590bbacked Raptors | 8c | 510.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49b2…ffd0backed Raptors | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 156 | 13.5%21 W · 135 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…8f78backed Raptors | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 436 | 53.2%232 W · 204 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7ef9backed Raptors | 7c | 499.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb8…3667backed Raptors | 7c | 499.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +6.4wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x221f…6be8backed Raptors | 4c | 499.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 297 | 47.5%141 W · 156 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…1f3cbacked Raptors | 9c | 444.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 168 | 25.6%43 W · 125 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc990…dfe7backed Raptors | 8c | 395$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 40cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6442…2163backed Raptors | 8c | 325$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf86…601fbacked Raptors | 8c | 312.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 501 | 44.7%224 W · 277 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23be…da4fbacked Raptors | 8c | 312.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 336 | 38.1%128 W · 208 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…c96dbacked Raptors | 8c | 312.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 243 | 29.6%72 W · 171 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x718c…f792backed Raptors | 6c | 299.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b7…520dbacked Raptors | 8c | 295.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 357 | 34.5%123 W · 234 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed Raptors | 10c | 292.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 753 | 47.5%358 W · 395 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Raptors | 4c | 250.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 930 | 36.5%339 W · 591 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed Raptors | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 563 | 52%293 W · 270 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9730…4504backed Raptors | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32c6…35e8backed Raptors | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ed…e60abacked Raptors | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 153 | 16.3%25 W · 128 L | -10.3wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf011…994fbacked Raptors | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Raptors | 7c | 195.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 855 | 42%359 W · 496 L | +10.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b1…6f55backed Raptors | 8c | 192.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 202 | 38.6%78 W · 124 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22f4…3a5bbacked Raptors | 9c | 189.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x267d…7b65backed Raptors | 8c | 175$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8a…f0ddbacked Raptors | 8c | 167.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0b…eb6dbacked Raptors | 7c | 143$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 221 | 37.6%83 W · 138 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0e…26afbacked Raptors | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd569…ff3bbacked Raptors | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6233…9b17backed Raptors | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0c…9d02backed Raptors | 11c | 99.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 261 | 24.1%63 W · 198 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09a9…dd6abacked Raptors | 15c | 99.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.