Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeae38b28ca81834753d91a2f383867c32bffe0d29e5daa889db5bc011ce1fe96
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,147
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,954
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,147 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 153 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 62c | 1,540$948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.03 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 13c | 1,485$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.41 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 45c | 1,384$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$762.61 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 19c | 914.88$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.69 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 35c | 896.21$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.11 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 45c | 880.75$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.14 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 47c | 642.68$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.12 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed No | 52c | 613.8$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.77 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 51c | 571.66$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.66 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 32c | 517$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.9 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf255…a6e8backed Yes | 71c | 487.55$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.5 | 82 | 69.5%57 W · 25 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 45c | 466.29$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.42 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 30c | 399.33$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.55 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 52c | 380$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.69 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 68c | 350$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.13 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3974…cb78backed Yes | 51c | 328.96$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.55 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 53c | 304.63$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed No | 4c | 300.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 25c | 297.65$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.47 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 295.6$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.53 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 68c | 292.01$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.99 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…9a4ebacked Yes | 38c | 260$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.2 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b63…c6adbacked No | 26c | 258.95$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.02 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed08…ed3bbacked Yes | 40c | 252.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +57%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 63c | 250$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.44 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 60c | 241.25$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.05 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 41c | 239.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.14 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 42c | 235$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.74 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 45c | 221.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.31 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1d…98d0backed Yes | 63c | 215.37$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.37 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 10c | 209.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb544…cd42backed Yes | 52c | 205.31$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.28 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 20c | 203.05$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.09 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 197.74$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.54 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 54c | 192.28$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.14 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…a110backed Yes | 43c | 188$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.38 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 50c | 186.01$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.26 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 60c | 180.74$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.17 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 62c | 175.68$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.44 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 170.62$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.99 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51df…8605backed Yes | 42c | 168.03$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.03 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…7badbacked Yes | 63c | 161.76$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.14 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed Yes | 50c | 161.51$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.84 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 30c | 159.32$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.57 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97c5…018bbacked Yes | 67c | 158.93$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.93 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes | 43c | 150$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.62 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 42c | 149.51$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.31 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 8c | 141.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 61c | 137.69$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.01 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0732…4098backed Yes | 42c | 130$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.3 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 62c | 127$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.55 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 63c | 126.36$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.31 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66b…b1d1backed No | 60c | 124.14$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.04 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…1b4fbacked Yes | 73c | 117.14$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 28c | 116.92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 67c | 115.66$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.1 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 65c | 105.27$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.52 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…6982backed No | 58c | 105$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…1517backed Yes | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 36c | 100.04$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.29 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed No | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a40…840ebacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +35%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 14c | 99.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes | 59c | 98$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.21 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 72c | 97$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.84 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 46c | 94.39$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.07 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 21c | 93.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…8239backed Yes | 53c | 92.19$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.65 | 128 | 53.9%69 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 68c | 90$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 29c | 88.69$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.97 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 61c | 80$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 23c | 77.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fc…69a1backed Yes | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 34cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 26c | 76.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.44 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 31c | 71.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 16c | 67.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x667c…559cbacked Yes | 52c | 67.32$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.32 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 62c | 65.23$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 36c | 65.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.68 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 38c | 57.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.08 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 66c | 57.46$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.81 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbda0…8992backed Yes | 36c | 55.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.48 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b846backed Yes | 59c | 55.25$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 44c | 55.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd542…08abbacked Yes | 50c | 51.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 39cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe39c…4c0bbacked Yes | 48c | 50.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf855…9e8ebacked No | 59c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 21c | 49.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 32c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…0c2cbacked Yes | 54c | 49.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…8e3cbacked Yes | 63c | 49.55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…a64dbacked No | 30c | 49.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.