Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe6acb952996f3891be78871d124ff6c300bd403f50b91f885dc91f28ac93103
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,621
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,498
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,621 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 36c | 1,829$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.88 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 22c | 1,372$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.91 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 65c | 847.37$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.09 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 72c | 823.05$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.46 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 2c | 813.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 72c | 777.87$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.94 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51df…8605backed Yes | 6c | 679.96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.91 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 15c | 657.57$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.15 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 38c | 563.2$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.23 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 18c | 544.35$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.36 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 7c | 475.27$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.57 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 73c | 451.29$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.99 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 448.81$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.86 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 24c | 401.81$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.79 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 28c | 369.32$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.74 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…9a4ebacked Yes | 28c | 361.45$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.57 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 64c | 350$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 15c | 349.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 13c | 346.66$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 37c | 305.68$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.53 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 9c | 304.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 17c | 282$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.83 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 36c | 270.38$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.8 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 19c | 265.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.11 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 257$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.34 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 28c | 244.4$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.44 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fc…69a1backed Yes | 13c | 228.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 34cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce67…5c3abacked Yes | 27c | 220.14$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.08 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3974…cb78backed No | 59c | 215.74$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.74 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 27c | 215$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.63 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…a110backed Yes | 28c | 188$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.03 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 24c | 185.41$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.61 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 64c | 184$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.24 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 64c | 175$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 65c | 171$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.07 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 161.59$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.16 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 26c | 140$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 30c | 130$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 64c | 129.87$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.75 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 126.36$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.62 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 38c | 115.74$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 43c | 115.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 47c | 103.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1d…98d0backed Yes | 45c | 99.81$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 72c | 95.61$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.33 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked Yes | 32c | 92.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 25c | 90.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb544…cd42backed Yes | 49c | 89.47$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.44 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e70…bb75backed Yes | 32c | 86.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 66c | 84.34$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 31c | 82.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 79.21$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.33 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…1517backed Yes | 49c | 75.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.83 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes | 19c | 75.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 27c | 73.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 29c | 71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…8e63backed No | 62c | 70.98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 70.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfd48…1e93backed No | 75c | 69.24$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d39…e6f6backed No | 59c | 68.31$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.31 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5673…32babacked Yes | 17c | 68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 34cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 78c | 64.95$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…0322backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 18c | 59.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 39c | 59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 27c | 56.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe514…e312backed No | 59c | 55.82$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.81 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed Yes | 27c | 55.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0210…7e92backed Yes | 38c | 53.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda0…8992backed Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 39c | 50.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…dd3abacked Yes | 30c | 50.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…0c2cbacked No | 75c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x031d…87d1backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8710…f9c7backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 36c | 49.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x097d…6f83backed No | 68c | 48.43$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 46.56$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa301…bcbdbacked Yes | 33c | 45.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 57c | 44.81$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 30c | 43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 74c | 42.74$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…6982backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e70…c53ebacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 28cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1298…e850backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -6.0wins | -0.21per pick | 42cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 74c | 39.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66b…b1d1backed Yes | 41c | 39.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6104…f040backed Yes | 36c | 39.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 73c | 38.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4441…680abacked Yes | 42c | 37.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19d7…7fc5backed No | 69c | 36.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7461…3515backed Yes | 39c | 34.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.