Dota2 · resolved market
1win to win 2-0?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeaf07ef98b70ad84fdbcf129e5d502af0bc82c6d9d1fe2067554ea16db47ae8c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,301
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,870
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,301 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 52c | 3,397$1,762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,635.21 | 237 | 36.7%87 W · 150 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…16e3backed No | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94cb…64e3backed No | 52c | 863.26$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.37 | 188 | 30.9%58 W · 130 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4579…dfdfbacked Yes | 60c | 583.33$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.33 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed No | 55c | 572.23$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.1 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked No | 45c | 516.86$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.01 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed Yes | 46c | 496.81$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.81 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2405…e055backed No | 55c | 420.57$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.31 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked No | 52c | 391.6$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.63 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 24c | 361.24$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.26 | 793 | 41.7%331 W · 462 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed No | 55c | 325$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.75 | 227 | 27.3%62 W · 165 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f4…ee16backed Yes | 54c | 320.29$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.45 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed No | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 204 | 48%98 W · 106 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 60c | 267.9$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.16 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 45c | 254.91$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.2 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0241…fd36backed No | 36c | 251$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.36 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…c534backed No | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 577 | 35%202 W · 375 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c4…bbfbbacked Yes | 43c | 166.6$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.96 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe59…0d2ebacked No | 52c | 160.62$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.04 | 162 | 43.2%70 W · 92 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffe9…a70ebacked No | 51c | 156.41$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.77 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked No | 20c | 154.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 53c | 153.53$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.8 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 10c | 149.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 50 | 8%4 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc13b…701ebacked Yes | 48c | 145.83$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.83 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked No | 54c | 120$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 267 | 41.9%112 W · 155 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 11c | 118$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked No | 45c | 110.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.59 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5867…2e20backed Yes | 64c | 103.13$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.13 | 253 | 39.1%99 W · 154 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a7…164bbacked No | 53c | 99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.47 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 56c | 82.45$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.58 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d3…b2edbacked No | 55c | 80$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 142 | 59.9%85 W · 57 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc70…8be9backed No | 52c | 75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 253 | 54.5%138 W · 115 L | +13.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…fe40backed No | 30c | 66.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd004…6a78backed No | 59c | 50.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 36c | 50.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 669 | 47.1%315 W · 354 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a2…a9bfbacked Yes | 44c | 45.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 194 | 55.7%108 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3296…c186backed Yes | 48c | 41.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | +7.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9332…a3dbbacked Yes | 48c | 41.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 760 | 48.6%369 W · 391 L | +26.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed No | 55c | 39.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 57c | 32.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67bb…b6efbacked Yes | 62c | 26.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 281 | 59.8%168 W · 113 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Yes | 42c | 25.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed No | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4358…3e76backed No | 55c | 18.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1win to win 2-0?this page
- Virtus.pro to win 2-0?No won
- Virtus.pro vs 1win: Draw (1-1)?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.