Music · resolved market
Will 'BULLY' - Ye debut week album sales be less than 150k?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb29028426b0733aad8e71f54e47e56b597d95607eb22b84311c00f113a1a95e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,551
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,826
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,551 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes | 9c | 2,250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 14c | 2,142$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,842.12 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +82.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc904…0ecfbacked Yes | 5c | 1,487$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf81…697dbacked No | 23c | 1,188$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$916.28 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed No | 16c | 1,071$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897.54 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…eb36backed Yes | 46c | 1,013$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.19 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes | 17c | 900$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 68c | 842.44$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.02 | 146 | 61%89 W · 57 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3560…11f0backed Yes | 79c | 597$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa476…653ebacked Yes | 80c | 539.92$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 75c | 490.39$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.64 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc442…8d9cbacked No | 29c | 488.62$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 16c | 434.76$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.36 | 67 | 10.4%7 W · 60 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 32c | 341.65$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.93 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 15c | 323.62$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.41 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5778…6b73backed Yes | 74c | 285.06$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58ce…57c4backed Yes | 78c | 262$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed No | 20c | 250$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 16cpaid | +50%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 25c | 250$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef10…22f0backed No | 24c | 203.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.38 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 73c | 200$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 122 | 34.4%42 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 15c | 195.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.15 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +4.3wins | +0.33per pick | 51cpaid | +112.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 66c | 193$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.54 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa76b…8a50backed Yes | 8c | 168.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 25c | 163.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.23 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee2…e71fbacked Yes | 22c | 161.05$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb23b…503fbacked No | 30c | 150$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Yes | 33c | 136.36$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd238…e099backed Yes | 19c | 112.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 42c | 103.11$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.91 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 27c | 100.69$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.52 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 42c | 99.34$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.56 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68e2…6afcbacked Yes | 58c | 96.59$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba44…269abacked Yes | 30c | 93.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 56c | 88.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.67 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 29c | 88.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 12c | 85.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 20c | 84.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.53 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 12cpaid | +124.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc9…b50cbacked No | 19c | 81.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.73 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 19c | 80.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.2 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 36c | 76.7$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.83 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 36c | 61.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.41 | 81 | 28.4%23 W · 58 L | -10.7wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -50%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf245…1df4backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb34a…6e39backed Yes | 65c | 55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa791…c0d2backed No | 27c | 42.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +271.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3140…6229backed Yes | 37c | 40.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f58…33f6backed Yes | 75c | 39.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 36c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 60c | 35.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.41per pick | 54cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 64c | 33.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a58…da14backed No | 60c | 33.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89e0…9412backed Yes | 64c | 31.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 36c | 30.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 54c | 28.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 51c | 27.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5be…5858backed Yes | 71c | 26.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84a9…dbc4backed Yes | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d6…c4ddbacked No | 71c | 23.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +95.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 58c | 17.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'BULLY' - Ye debut week album sales be less than 150k?this page
- Will 'BULLY' - Ye debut week album sales be between 150k and 175k?Yes won
- Will 'BULLY' - Ye debut week album sales be between 175k and 200k?No won
- Will 'BULLY' - Ye debut week album sales be between 200k and 225k?No won
- Will 'BULLY' - Ye debut week album sales be between 225k and 250k?No won
- Will 'BULLY' - Ye debut week album sales be between 250k and 275k?No won
- Will 'BULLY' - Ye debut week album sales be between 275k and 300k?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.